Probability, Probability and... Probability

First, and of course very important if you want to get a good rating at sites like BGA, play only vs ONE opponent at a time... and 2nd, play vs HIGHER ranked players (loses less/gains more).

Can't Stop uses Four dice

Rolling 2 (or 12) - 13,19%

Rolling 3 (or 11) - 23,30%

Rolling 4 (or 10) - 35,57%

Rolling 5 (or 9) - 44,75%

Rolling 6 (or 8) - 56,10%

Rolling 7 -----> 64,35%

The probablitity of rolling 6, 8 (56,10% chance each) or 7 (64,35%) will happen more than half of your rolls!

A player need a roll of "7" 13 times to close the middle row, while he/she only need the correct number three times to close the "2 or 12 row".

Wait with Committing

If you commit yourself to three rows, a failed throw will of course destroy all the progress you have made the current turn. If you push only two rows and manage to postpone comitting to a third, the risk of failure the next throw can be kept at zero. Of course if some rows are already closed this is not the case, and the risk of failure increases. But especially before this stage of a match you should try to push 1-2 rows as much as possible before you commit to, 2nd and, the 3rd. There are however two exceptions to this:

• The "Star Combo" of the 6,7 and 8th row. Committing to these three rows have a probability for failure of ONLY 8% per throw, I repeat 8%!
• If you are forced to climb two rows with low probablity after the first 1-2 throws. It's then usually better to pick one of the three center rows on the upcomming throw and go for 1-2 more throws, or choose another row with low probability and stop, or make one more throw (the probability is low, but closer to the top if you are lucky later)

Nothing to Lose

If the opponent with high probability will win the match, just GO FOR IT! You got nothing to lose. This also goes for situations where the opponent is really strong in three or more rows and most likely will win fast if you are not very lucky.

Pressure is always good!

"Feeling the odds" and stopping at the "right" time during your first two turns of the match will create pressure on the opponent if you are successful. It's always good if the opponent/s feels pressured to push the luck (too) hard.

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Can't Stop? Try The Rule of 28

By Michael Keller

A major part of the strategy of Can't Stop is when to stop rolling. The point at which one should stop depends on the three numbers marked and the amount of progress already made in the current turn (measured in fractions of the total distance needed to win a column). The ideal stopping point can be calculated from the probability of a successful roll, and the average progress value of a successful roll. The ideal strategy would consist of a table of 165 entries, one for each combination of three numbers, each entry showing the level of progress at which to stop for that combination.

Such a table would, of course, be impractical to use in an actual game. What we really need is a rule of thumb that is simple to use and reasonably accurate. The following rule, called the Rule of 28, should prove helpful. Add the following values for each number marked or advanced in each column during the current turn (note that each column counts double when a marker is placed)

Note that each column counts double when a marker is placed. Add two points if all three columns marked are odd; subtract two points if all three columns are even. Add four points if all three columns are less than eight, or if all three are greater than six. When the total for the current turn reaches 28 or more, stop rolling (but do not stop before all three markers are placed).

A few turns of a sample game:

(1) 1-1-3-4 Mark 2 and 7. Neither has been marked this turn, so count 12 plus 2, or 14.

1-1-4-6 Advance marker 2, mark column 10. Add 6 and 8 for a total count of 28. This is the total at which to stop.

(2) 1-2-5-6 Mark and advance 7. Count 2 plus 1 for a total of 3.

1-1-3-6 Mark 2 and 9. Add 12 plus 6 for a total of 21. Continue.

1-5-5-6 Advance 7. The total is now 22. Continue.

1-2-4-5 Advance 9. The total is now 25. Continue.

1-3-3-5 Miss. Bad luck!

(3) 2-2-3-3 Mark and advance 5. Count 6 plus 3 for 9.

1-2-2-4 Mark 3 and 6. Add 10 plus 4 for 23, plus 4 (because 3, 5, and 6 are all less than 7) for 27. Roll once more.

2-4-6-6 Advance 6. Add 2 for a total of 29, and stop.

The Rule of 28 will tell you within one roll the correct point at which to stop in 75 percent of all cases (and within two rolls in 92 percent of all cases). This is a fairly good result for a simple, practical rule. However, since you are playing against opponents, do not follow the rule slavishly. Use your judgment as to where you stand in the game when making decisions on when to stop. In particular, when you are behind in the game, or are close to winning a closely contested battle for a column, it is a good idea to take extra chances (thus you would continue to roll even when your turn total exceeds 28).

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