Global pandemic situation and active state of agriculture

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020 and later declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of 23 June 2021, more than 179 million cases have been confirmed, with more than 3.88 million confirmed deaths attributed to COVID-19, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in history.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted agricultural and food systems worldwide. COVID-19 hit at a time when hunger or undernourishment was once again on the rise in the world, with an estimated 690 million people already going hungry in 2019. Based on the latest UN estimates, the economic recession triggered by the pandemic may lead to another 83 million people, and possibly as many as 132 million, going hungry in 2020. This is mainly due to a lack of access to food – linked to falling incomes, lost remittances, and, in some cases, a rise in food prices. In countries that already suffer from high levels of acute food insecurity, it is no longer an issue of access to food alone, but increasingly also one of food production.

The pandemic, alongside lockdowns and travel restrictions, has prevented the movement of aid and greatly impacted food production. As a result, several famines are forecast, which the UN called a crisis "of biblical proportions," or "hunger pandemic." It is estimated that without intervention 30 million people may die of hunger, with Oxfam reporting that "12,000 people per day could die from COVID-19 linked hunger" by the end of 2020. In conjunction with the 2019–2021 locust infestations and several ongoing armed conflicts, this pandemic is predicted to form the worst series of famines since the Great Chinese Famine, affecting between 10 and 20 percent of the global population in some way. 55 countries are reported to be at risk, with three dozen succumbing to crisis-level famines or above in the worst-case scenario. 265 million people are forecast to be in famine conditions, an increase of 125 million due to the pandemic.

Sri Lanka Pandemic situation and active state of agriculture

Here in Sri Lanka Day by day increasing the count of Corona infected cases and deaths by a matter of time. configuring log down people lockdown to their homes. Over two hundred thousand cases have been reported and it's still counting, in this case, a country it's getting harder and harder to resist in the agriculture sector because of the lockdown no farmers can grow their crops as normal let's look at the current situation in the agricultural sector

The agriculture sector contributes about 7 percent to the national GDP out of which the fisheries sector contributes around 1.2 percent and the livestock sector accounts for 0.6 percent. Over 25 percent of Sri Lankans are employed in the agricultural sector. Although Sri Lanka is a fertile tropical land with the potential for the cultivation and processing of a variety of crops, issues such as productivity and profitability hamper the growth of the sector.

Sri Lanka’s primary food crop is rice. Rice is cultivated during two seasons. Tea is cultivated in the central highlands and is a major source of foreign exchange. Fruit, vegetables, and oilseed crops are also cultivated in the country. One of President Sirisena’s top priorities is to increase productivity in the agriculture sector. There has been low adoption of mechanization in farming. The president wants to increase mechanization and grow higher-value cash crops such as fruit, flowers, and other export-oriented crops. The lack of private investment in agriculture due to uncertain policies limits the expansion of the sector.

Sri Lanka imports a variety of agricultural products and food including wheat, lentils, sugar, fruit, milk, and milk products. The importation of food and beverages account for 7.2 percent of total imports in 2018. Sri Lanka is emerging as an important market for international business and tourism. A variety of upscale international and local hotels, resorts, and restaurants have opened in Colombo, Kandy, Galle, and around major tourist sites. They offer a good platform for introducing new-to-market imported food products. Additionally, upscale retailers are creating avenues for imported foods and beverages. Sri Lanka also imports animal feed. Total agriculture, food, and beverage imports were $1.6 billion in 2018. U.S. suppliers have significant opportunities in this market.

Agricultural production activities as employers or own-account workers are defined as the agricultural operator. According to the 2016/17 survey, the estimated numbers of agricultural operators were 2.3 million and nearly one-fourth of them were females. Map 2 shows the highest number of agricultural operators was in the Kurunegala district. Over 100,000 agricultural operators were reported in Anuradhapura, Rathnapura, Kandy, Galle, Badulla, Gampaha, Matara, Kegalle, Hambantota, and Monaragala districts. Entrepreneurs of cultivation, other plantations, livestock farming, can be commonly identified as agricultural operators. During the survey agricultural operators were inquired to get the relevant information.

Covid-19 Situation on agriculture in Sri Lanka

The outbreak of COVID19 has had a relatively low impact on the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka and is now loosely integrated only with global supply chains. From the beginning of the COVID19 epidemic, the government took timely steps to reduce the impact on agriculture. However, due to control measures, many farmers are still suffering heavy losses and temporary import restrictions are hampering trade. Dairy farmers are the least affected. Field-level storage and cool storage facilities can be established in preparation for future potential food shocks. Apart from COVID19, the changing climate and economic crisis will also affect this sector. However, the sector is forecast to grow positively by 1% by 2020 and is still an attractive market for input providers.

With the outbreak of COVID19 in March 2020, the Sri Lankan economy was already in a difficult period. The 2018 constitutional crisis and the Easter Sunday attacks in 2019 will have a significant impact on the economy, leading to a historically low growth rate in 2019. The International Monetary Fund has forecast a negative growth of 0.5% for Sri Lanka by 2020. The government is now facing the challenge of reducing the fiscal deficit and will have to repay both domestic and foreign debt. To ease the pressure on monetary devaluation, boosting exports and foreign investment and raising government revenue to meet the ever-increasing government expenditure are also priorities.

Today, COVID19 has adverse effects on the trade balance and balance of payments for many economies. The government has taken many steps to revive the economy. They reintroduced finance and working capital to COVID19's successful businesses, injected LKR 240 billion into the new cash banking system, and suspended non-essential imports until at least mid - July 2020. But the coming months will see signs for the economy.

Furthermore, 2020 is an election year in Sri Lanka, including the forthcoming parliamentary elections. This could lead to the adoption of popular policies in the midst of the crisis.

About 30% of the population of Sri Lanka is engaged in agriculture but the contribution of this sector to the GDP is as low as 10% (2015 data). The main food crop grown in Sri Lanka is rice (40%) followed by the plantation crop (38%) consisting mainly of tea, rubber, and coconut. Low productivity, water, and land use inefficiencies, and long post-harvest losses have affected this sector. Sri Lanka Agriculture, the 2nd largest country in the Global Climate Risk Index, is also experiencing the effects of changing climate and natural disasters. However, this has given farmers an incentive to switch to climate-friendly agriculture. In line with this emerging trend, the government, with the support of the World Bank and other aid agencies, has taken a number of initiatives to modernize the agricultural sector.

Compared to the industrial and service sectors, Sri Lankan agriculture has been the least affected by the COVID19 eruption so far, as this sector is only loosely integrated with global supply chains. However, the impact of the epidemic on the agricultural sector is still comparable to other countries in the region. An estimated 2.1 million agricultural households are at risk of losing their livelihoods, despite various measures taken by the government to protect the agricultural supply chain. Extensive measures are needed to keep the food supply chain alive and to minimize the impact on the food system. Although the lock-out was free from farm operations and food supply chains from the outset, activation problems led to a severe labor shortage and falling wholesale market prices. In view of the situation, the government initiated a program to purchase fruits and vegetables directly from farmers to alleviate the problem of limited wholesale markets.

Low-income population

Over the year, gross operating surplus continued to be the largest revenue component of the economy. Subsidies for employee compensation and production are then reduced. Gross surplus The GDP surplus, which was 63.4 percent of GDP, grew marginally by 0.7 percent in 2020 at current prices. The main reason for this slow growth is the slowdown in net operating surplus during the year. With respect to other major sources of income, employee compensation increased, while subsidies for contracted products declined during the year.

At current prices, domestic and national savings in the economy will shrink further in 2020. In 2020, household savings shrank by 9.1 percent. The significant increase in government savings was mainly due to the reduction in government revenue due to tax cuts and declines. COVID-19 epidemic in economic activity due to slow growth in personal savings. As a result, domestic savings as a percentage of GDP fell to 18.9 percent in 2020 from 20.7 percent in 2019. Meanwhile, net primary income and net savings from the rest of the world during the year, the rupee's national savings contracted by 3.6 percent in 2020 due to a contraction in domestic savings. As a result, national savings as a percentage of GDP fell to 23.9 percent in 2020. Furthermore, the national savings-investment gap, despite the contraction of national savings

Investment spending fell sharply to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2.1 percent of GDP in 2019.

According to the Medium-Term Population Estimates compiled by the Department of the Registrar General, the median annual population of Sri Lanka in 2020 is estimated at 21.919 million. Accordingly, the population growth rate continued to moderate from 0.6 percent in 2019 to 0.5 percent in 2020. The highest contribution to population growth came from the Eastern and Western Provinces respectively. The lowest contribution to population growth was made in the North and North Central Provinces respectively. Continuing the observed trend, the Western Province has the highest median population at 28.1 percent, the Central and Southern Provinces at 12.7 percent, and the median population at 12.2 percent, respectively. 2020. Meanwhile, the Northern Province remained the lowest in the Central Province at 5.3 percent.

The labor force, an economically active population, has fallen from 8.592 million in 2019 to 8.467 million in 2020. Accordingly, the economically inactive population has increased from 7.832 million in 2019 to 8.273 million in 2020. Job and active job search led to this significant increase in inactivity. In the midst of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, there may have been limited mobility, discouragement over job opportunities, and a lack of interest in work due to health risks. In line with the decline in the workforce and the increase in the inactive population, the labor force participation rate, which is the ratio of the workforce to the household population, fell from 52.3 percent in 2019 to 50.6 percent in 2020. Accordingly, the participation rate of the male and female workforce has declined from 71.9 percent and 32.1 percent in 2020, respectively, to 34.5 percent in 2019, down from 73.0 percent. The labor force participation rate is projected to increase from 38.5 percent in 2019 to 39.8 percent in 2020.

Labor productivity, measured by gross value added per hour (2010 prices), increased by 12.5 percent to Rs. 577.17 to Rs. In 2019, it worked at 513.17 per hour. Labor productivity output in industry and services increased by 13.2 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively, contributing to this significant increase in overall labor production output. Accordingly, the labor productivity of industry and services is Rs. 611.89 and Rs. 764.29 per hour respectively in 2020 at Rs. 540.70 and paid. This was mainly due to a significant reduction in the number of hours worked within the limits of control over the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, despite a relatively small drop in gross value added. In contrast, reversing the steady trend, labor productivity in agriculture fell by 7.8 percent to Rs. 177.54 crore in 2020. The number of working hours in 2019 was 192.46 per hour due to the increase in the number of working hours in the midst of job transfer and gross value added for agriculture. Accordingly, according to productivity levels, service activities continued to demonstrate the most efficient use of manpower, followed by industrial activities recording the highest labor productivity levels, while agricultural activities recorded the least.

Our Perspective

According to all of these detailed data, We can clearly see Sri Lankan agriculture cant stand up with this covid-19 situation in my perspective I rather say this is a huge fall down in 24 districts in Sri Lanka there are many rural areas, They don't have roads they don't have proper water supply they are kinda tribes trapped into there areas, in that case, they can't get their safety precautions against covid-19 in another side it's kinda hard to get there as a social virus because lack of transportation even though from today we get reports daily all around the country detected covid-19 positive patients, At last, this effect to the whole country and country food chain as a government their struggle to find a solution to keep country and our farmers safe.

Resources

EO Dashboard

World Bank

Our World In Data

Department Of Agriculture Sri Lanka

Department of Census and Statistics