Publications

Abstract:

Natural gas is a major fuel in Peru, accounting for nearly 45 % of all energy sources used to generate electricity. This research aims to analyze the dynamic association between economic growth and natural gas consumption (NGC), considering Peru's trade openness (Tr) from 1965 to 2022. The augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test is utilized to test the stationary properties of the log series of real gross domestic product (GDP), NGC, and real Tr. We used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to determine the long-run (LR) equilibrium association between the variables. As the second cointegration method, we used the Engle-Granger test. The results of the ARDL test support the cointegration of all variables, we find the opposite case with Engle-Granger method. The Granger causality results support the neutrality hypothesis between GDP and NGC, a two-way causality association between Tr and GDP, and the neutrality hypothesis between NGC and Tr. Nevertheless, in the LR, cointegration confirms the growth hypothesis between GDP and NGC. Similarly, we find that in the LR, the first lag of Tr positively impacts the current GDP value. Meanwhile, in the short run, Tr has a positive effect on Peru's GDP. Then, using the findings of cointegration among all variables, we can conclude that NGC and Tr are the drivers of economic growth in Peru in the LR. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our results.

Abstract:

This study reexamines the causal nexus among electricity consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG) for a panel of 31 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1980 and 2021. We find that there are statistically significant feedback impacts among the research variables in the long run. A 1 percent augment in EC raises EG by 0.5 percent and a 1 percent augment in EG produces a 1.54 percent increase in EC which reflects the nature of the latter as a luxury good and implies a tradeoff between economy and environment, since although greater electrical infrastructure drives EG, the latter also increases the EC whose use in a non-responsible manner could lead to environmental degradation through higher CO2 emissions. Therefore, the main policy implication is that, it is necessary to promote EG based on infrastructure focused on sustainable development, ensuring the well-being of present and future generations.

Abstract:

In this article, we analyze the conditions for the structural stability of a fractional order IS-LM-AS dynamic model with adaptive expectations. It is a generalization of our previous research lately published in the literature. We also present the conditions that the structural parameters of the model must meet for the economic system to present a periodic movement when the critical value of the fractional order of the system, q* , guarantees the presence of a Hopf bifurcation of degenerate type. The theoretical analysis is complemented with numerical simulations of the phase portraits in R3 and of the temporal trajectories of the solutions of the model in MATLAB software. Finally, it is important to highlight that unlike the results of our previous research, the qualitative results found in this paper show that all the structural parameters of the model are essential in determining its global asymptotic stability and Hopf bifurcation.

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between electric power consumption per capita (kWh) and real GDP per capita (PEN, constant 2007 prices), in Peru, during the period 1971–2014. The four theoretical hypotheses behind this relationship are the growth hypothesis –electricity consumption explains economic growth–, the conservation hypothesis –economic growth explains electricity consumption–, the feedback hypothesis –mutually affecting explanation between electricity consumption and economic growth–, and neutrality hypothesis –electricity consumption does not explain economic growth and vice versa–. Empirically, we initially conclude that the conservation hypothesis can be confirmed using the Granger Causality test, after estimating the dynamic impacts of the long-run equilibrium and short-run models. We highlight the inelastic behavior of electric power consumption per capita with regard to real GDP per capita. These results have implications for electricity conservation, expansive and security policies. We also discussed investments in electricity generation, transmission and distribution from renewable energy sources such as hydro, wind and solar. These eco-sustainable energies also called green and clean energies, are necessary for the sustainability of the electric power demand and the level of national electrification.

Abstract:

In this article, we carry out the structural analysis of an IS-LM-AS macroeconomic model with adaptive inflation expectations, exploring the presence of a possible local bifurcation. We prove that the model is structurally unstable when the speed with which economic agents adjust their expectations about future inflation is equal to the inverse of the semi-elasticity of real money demand with respect to the nominal interest rate since the periodic solutions are lost when the adaptive expectations parameter suffer any small change, ceteris paribus. Additionally, the phase portraits of the instantaneous rate of change of the real interest rate, the inflation rate, and the instantaneous rate of change of the inflation rate are numerically simulated in R3 with MATLAB for three asymptotically and locally stable cases and for the degenerate Hopf bifurcation. Finally, our results show that, specifically, in the case of pure conjugate complex eigenvalues, the economy could enter periods of an inflationary/deflationary spiral when the adaptive expectations parameter is of greater magnitude to the inverse of the semi-elasticity of real money demand balances with respect to the nominal interest rate, regardless of its initial state.

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to estimate the dynamic impacts of foreign direct investments (FDI) and exports on economic growth in Peru (1970–2020) using annual series. Starting with the theoretical Mundell–Fleming static model with assumptions, we find that the change in exports does not affect GDP, and the effect of FDI on GDP can be positive or negative depending on the comparison between the slopes of the IS and LM curves. The variables are foreign direct investment net flow (% of GDP), exports of goods and services (% of GDP), and GDP growth rate (%). FDI and exports constitute first-order integrated processes; meanwhile, the GDP growth rate is a stationary process. The Granger causality evidences feedback between GDP and exports and the FDI-led growth hypothesis. Considering the dependent variable GDP growth rate, the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration bound test shows the findings regarding the cointegration consist of positive long-term equilibrium impacts from exports and FDI on GDP. Estimating an error correction model, in the short-term, the FDI explains to GDP and the exports have an insignificant impact on economic growth in Peru. Finally, we conclude that Peru’s economic policy path should continue to attract foreign capital to increase FDI.

Abstract:

This study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The variables were transformed into natural logarithms, wherein only the logarithm of public expenditure to output ratio is stationary and the others are non-stationary 𝐼(1). The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner’s law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure. 

Abstract:

This study focuses on the reasons why students from private universities who have finished their studies, but not their research work, a requirement to obtain their degree. Several studies agree that the supervision process is a fundamental factor to complete the thesis successfully. Thesis development and successful thesis completion are conditioned by a number of factors, one of which is supervisor performance. This study explores the limitations on supervision, time, and money, which are resources students need in order to finish their theses, and suggestions for improvement. The sample of the study consisted of 129 graduate candidates from different careers at a private university in Peru. The findings show that lack of supervision during the thesis development process, lack of time to develop the thesis and finance have an impact on finishing a thesis. Supervisors must have cognitive competences in scientific methodology, statistics, and the research topic, and help the students to transition from course work to independent research.

Abstract: 

Objective:

To assess the impact of a mindfulness program on physiological stress, emotional distress, perceived stress, and work stress in a group of workers.

Material and methods:

28 university workers (employees and teachers) participated, who had registered high levels of work stress in a previous institutional evaluation. The program consisted of six training sessions in mindfulness once a week and with two hours per sessions (12 hours in total) with the techniques of mindfulness in breathing, in the body (body scan), thinking, emotions and break. Biofeedback measurements were used to evaluate five physiological stress indicators and three tests to measures.

Results:

Blood volume in the skin (d= 0.8), blood pulse (d= 0.8) and frequency of abdominal breathing (d= 0.9), emotional distress (d= 0.9), perceived stress (d= 0.7) and work stress (d= 0.6).

Conclusion:

Mindfulness had a significant impact on stress reduction in university workers.

Abstract: The students mostly complete the studies; however, they do not finish the Thesis an indispensable requirement for obtaining the degree. Thesis development is a complex process and has been denominated multiplicity. A factor that helps a student to successfully complete the thesis is the supervisor performance in the thesis development process. This study explored the issues of students that finished their studies but not thesis. The results of a survey directed to 129 graduated students from a private university located in Peru were sampled. The results show that supervision in process of thesis development, lack of time and financial aspects are issues that influence in finish thesis called All but Thesis syndrome.