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The Chan Chan Ruins-Trujillo-Peru

Natural gas, trade openness and economic growth in Peru: 1965–2022Natural gas is a major fuel in Peru, accounting for nearly 45 % of all energy sources used to generate electricity. This paper aims to analyze the nexus between gross domestic product (GDP) and natural gas consumption (NGC), considering Peru’s trade openness (Tr) from 1965 to 2022. From the results obtained in this research, the following conclusions are derived: First, the Granger causality (GC) test results validated the neutrality hypothesis between NGC and GDP, allowing us to conclude that policies to conserve or increase NGC will have no effect on Peru’s GDP and vice versa over the sample period. Besides, the GC test confirmed a bidirectional relationship between Tr and GDP (validating both the Tr-led GDP and GDP-led Tr hypotheses). Second, there is cointegration in all variables, it is noted that Tr and NGC are drivers of GDP in Peru in the long-run (LR), verifying that NGC has a positive impact on GDP in LR, while for Tr results showed that, in the LR, the value of Tr from the previous year has a positive effect on the current value of GDP; and that in the short-run, the current value of Tr has a positive effect on GDP. Last, the GC test also validated a neutrality causal relationship between NGC and Tr, allowing us to conclude that policies to preserve or increase NGC will not affect Peru’s Tr or vice versa during the study period.

Investigadores peruanos proponen modelo innovador para prevenir y estabilizar la economía - Revista EconomíaEl estudio contribuye en el diseño de las políticas económicas del futuro. Lima, mayo del 2024. Un equipo de investigadores peruanos ha desarrollado un modelo macroeconómico pionero que podría transformar la manera en que se comprende y se gestionan las economías. Este modelo no solo analiza las fluctuaciones económicas, sino que también predice cómo podrían […]

Foreign Direct Investment and Exports Stimulate Economic Growth? Evidence from PeruThe purpose of this research is to estimate the dynamic impacts of foreign direct investments (FDI) and exports on economic growth in Peru (1970–2020) using annual series. Starting with the theoretical Mundell–Fleming static model with assumptions, we find that the change in exports does not affect GDP, and the effect of FDI on GDP can be positive or negative depending on the comparison between the slopes of the IS and LM curves. The variables are foreign direct investment net flow (% of GDP), exports of goods and services (% of GDP), and GDP growth rate (%). FDI and exports constitute first-order integrated processes; meanwhile, the GDP growth rate is a stationary process. The Granger causality evidences feedback between GDP and exports and the FDI-led growth hypothesis. Considering the dependent variable GDP growth rate, the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration bound test shows the findings regarding the cointegration consist of positive long-term equilibrium impacts from exports and FDI on GDP. Estimating an error correction model, in the short-term, the FDI explains to GDP and the exports have an insignificant impact on economic growth in Peru. Finally, we conclude that Peru’s economic policy path should continue to attract foreign capital to increase FDI.

Does economic growth promote electricity consumption? Implications for electricity policiesThe purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between electric power consumption and economic growth in Peru between 1971 and2014. The four theoretical hypotheses behind this relationship are the growth hypothesis (electricity consumption explains economic growth), the conservation hypothesis (economic growth explains electricity consumption), the feedback hypothesis (mutually affecting explanation between electricity consumption and economic growth), and neutrality hypothesis (electricity consumption does not explain economic growth and vice versa). Empirically, we initially conclude that the conservation hypothesis can be confirmed using the Granger Causality test, after estimating the dynamic impacts of the long-run equilibrium and short-run models. We highlight the inelastic behavior of electric power consumption per capita with regard to real GDP per capita.

Macroeconomic fluctuations (business cycles) in a fractional order dynamic modelWe analyze the conditions for the structural stability of a fractional order IS-LM-AS dynamic model with adaptive expectations. It is a generalization of our previous research lately published in the literature. We also present the conditions that the structural parameters of the model must meet for the economic system to present a periodic movement when the critical value of the fractional order of the system, q*, guarantees the presence of a degenerate Hopf bifurcation. The theoretical analysis is complemented with numerical simulations of the phase portraits in the three-dimensional space of the set of real numbers and of the temporal trajectories of the solutions of the model in MATLAB software. Lastly, our qualitative results show that all the structural parameters of the model are essential in determining its global asymptotic stability and Hopf bifurcation.

Structural Stability Analysis in a Dynamic IS-LM-AS Macroeconomic Model with Inflation ExpectationsIn this article, we carry out the structural analysis of an IS-LM-AS macroeconomic model with adaptive inflation expectations, exploring the presence of a possible local bifurcation. We prove that the model is structurally unstable when the speed with which economic agents adjust their expectations about future inflation is equal to the inverse of the semi-elasticity of real money demand with respect to the nominal interest rate since the periodic solutions are lost when the adaptive expectations parameter suffer any small change, ceteris paribus. Additionally, the phase portraits of the instantaneous rate of change of the real interest rate, the inflation rate, and the instantaneous rate of change of the inflation rate are numerically simulated in with MATLAB for three asymptotically and locally stable cases and for the degenerate Hopf bifurcation. Finally, our results show that, specifically, in the case of pure conjugate complex eigenvalues, the economy could enter periods of an inflationary/deflationary spiral when the adaptive expectations parameter is of greater magnitude to the inverse of the semi-elasticity of real money demand balances with respect to the nominal interest rate, regardless of its initial state.

Is public expenditure driven by economic growth or vice versa? Wagner's Law vs. Keynesian HypothesisThis study analyzes the dynamics between public expenditure and economic growth in Peru for 1980Q1–2021Q4. We used quarterly time series of real GDP, public consumption expenditure, public expenditure, and the share of public expenditure to output. The study of stationary time series assesses whether Wagner’s law, the Keynesian hypothesis, the feedback hypothesis, or the neutrality hypothesis is valid for the Peruvian case according to Granger causality. We found cointegration between real GDP and public expenditure, and public consumption expenditure and real GDP. Estimating error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models, we concluded that Wagner’s law and the Keynesian hypothesis are valid in the Peruvian case, expressed as dynamic processes that allow us to obtain short-run and long-run impacts, permitting the mutual sustainability of economic growth and public expenditure.

Estudio revela necesidad de fortalecer políticas de conservación y expansión en sector eléctrico de Perú | Blog USILSe pronostica un incremento en el consumo de energía en el país durante los próximos cuatro años.

Docentes USIL publican investigación en revista suiza - USIL LifeLos docentes Dr. Ciro Bazán Navarro, Mg. Víctor Álvarez Quiroz y Yennyfer Morales Olivares, publicaron un paper de investigación económica en revista suiza.

Impuesto a la riqueza a ciudadanos más ricos: ¿Debe aplicarse? | Blog USIL

La Carrera de Economía presenta sus nuevas publicaciones - USIL LifeA fin de continuar con la promoción de la investigación y el conocimiento, la Carrera de Economía realizó la presentación de sus recientes publicaciones.

Las carreras de negocios más demandadas entre los centenial | Blog USIL

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