Research

Publications

Failing Young and Temporary Workers? The Impact of a Disruptive Crisis on a Dual Labour Market

with Bruno P. Carvalho, João Pereira dos Santos, Susana Peralta and José Tavares

The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2023)

Abstract: We study the impact of the pandemic crisis using monthly data covering the universe of individuals registered as unemployed in mainland Portuguese municipalities, complemented with electronic payments, linked employer–employee data, and furlough records. Event study designs identify a sharp increase in unemployment, driven mostly by termination of temporary contracts, and a decrease in new job placements. With triple difference-in-differences, we show that the effects are stronger in more dual municipal labour markets, i.e. with a higher share of temporary jobs, concentrated in young workers and middle educated individuals. The asymmetries are exacerbated by the duality of the municipal labour market.

Working Papers

Estimating individual's default risk in Portugal

with Tiago Pinheiro

Abstract: This paper estimates econometric models of default risk for individuals obtaining credit in Portugal using data from Banco de Portugal’s Credit Register. We estimate monthly default probabilities for mortgage and consumer loans over three, six, and twelve-month horizons. The models combine cross-sectional and time series components. The cross-sectional component captures default risk heterogeneity across individuals by relating default risk to loan and borrower characteristics. The time series component captures time variation in aggregate default risk by linking it with macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the model’s performance in distinguishing between defaulting and non-defaulting borrowers is on par with or superior to existing literature. The results also show a close alignment between average default probabilities and actual default rates across various borrower characteristics and lending institutions.

Work in Progress

Investment tax incentives and growth: Evidence from Portugal Draft available upon request!

with Nora Strecker

Abstract: In the years leading up to the global financial crisis, corporate debt levels surged while investment rates declined in many peripheral euro area countries. The subsequent crisis exacerbated financial distress, forcing firms across Europe to scale back investments. Among the hardest-hit economies, Portugal required an international bailout and implemented an Economic Adjustment Programme from 2011 to 2014. In response, the Portuguese government introduced the Deduction of Retained and Reinvested Profits (DRRP), a tax incentive aimed at encouraging tangible investment while reducing reliance on external financing. While tax incentives for investment - particularly those targeting research and development - are well studied, less attention has been given to policies supporting tangible asset investment. Our study contributes to this literature by focusing on the DRRP’s impact on firm investment, financing decisions, and broader firm outcomes. We analyze how the incentive influenced investment behavior, firm growth, and financial structure, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises. Our findings provide new insights into the role of investment tax credits in promoting capital formation while reducing corporate debt, highlighting the policy's effectiveness in fostering sustainable business growth.

Gimme Shelter: Can Abolishing Transaction Taxes Help the Young? Draft available soon!

with José Pedro Sousa and João Pereira dos Santos

Articles

Earnings calls: new evidence on corporate profits, investment and financing conditions

with Malin Andersson and Pedro Neves

ECB Economic Bulletin (Issue 4/2023)

Page updated

Google Sites

Report abuse