Climate Science
Reputable Sources
Not all sources of information are created equal. Go to scientific organizations for your science–not to entertainment media, popular news, blogs, radio, or op-ed articles. Every scientific organization in the world has come to the same general conclusions about human-caused climate change: the Earth is warming, it's mostly from fossil fuel pollution, and it's a serious threat that requires immediate attention. See below for some of the most significant scientific reports.
There is scientific consensus about this understanding: climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus.
There is a difference between scientific consensus and political consensus. It takes a consensus of all the available evidence plus a consilience of experts in multiple fields of science to achieve scientific consensus.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment
This is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.
From the report:
"Climate Is Changing, and Scientists Understand Why: It is unequivocal that human activities have increased atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It is also unequivocal that global average temperature has risen in response."
"Earth’s climate is changing because humans are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and through other activities. The increase in greenhouse gases is warming the planet and driving other observed climate trends, including increases in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events. Future changes and impacts depend largely on the choices humans make about future greenhouse gas emissions."
"The effects of human-caused climate change are already far-reaching and worsening across every region of the United States. Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions can limit future warming and associated increases in many risks."
Climate changes are making it harder to maintain safe homes and healthy families; reliable public services; a sustainable economy; thriving ecosystems, cultures, and traditions; and strong communities. Many of the extreme events and harmful impacts that people are already experiencing will worsen as warming increases and new risks emerge.
With each additional increment of warming, the consequences of climate change increase. The faster and further the world cuts greenhouse gas emissions, the more future warming will be avoided, increasing the chances of limiting or avoiding harmful impacts to current and future generations.
Large near-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are achievable through many currently available and cost-effective mitigation options. However, reaching net-zero emissions by midcentury cannot be achieved without exploring additional mitigation options. Even if the world decarbonizes rapidly, the Nation will continue to face climate impacts and risks. Adequately and equitably addressing these risks involves longer-term inclusive planning, investments in transformative adaptation, and mitigation approaches that consider equity and justice.
IPCC Special Report on 1.5˚C of Global Warming
At the current rate of GHG emissions from human activities, we only have several years before we will exceed the carbon budget that offers a 50:50 chance of holding global warming to 1.5˚C this century. This report (ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf) shows potential emissions reduction paths we could follow to hold warming to 1.5˚C (pages 6 and 13): net-zero emissions by 2050 and negative emissions for the second half of the century to achieve an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 350 ppm or less before 2100.
This report also compares the differences in risks, impacts, and damages of global warming by 1.5˚C and by 2˚C. NASA summarized these differences in a summary report. The differences make it clear we share a responsibility to avoid 2˚C of warming.
The UN's Emissions Gap Report demonstrates the greatly increased difficulty of holding warming below 1.5˚ C if we delay for even just five more years.
"It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred."
"Observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities, with
greenhouse gas warming partly masked by aerosol cooling."
Natural and Man-made Warming and Cooling Climate Forcings
The climate has always changed, and we know why through science. Figure 2.10 from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report shows all the natural and man-made climate forces since 1750. The two main warming forces are the man-made increase of the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (from fossil fuels) and CH4 (from fossil fuels and agriculture).
The 2021 New Hampshire Climate Assessment
This report was supported by funding from the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and produced by NH State Climatologist M.D. Lemcke-Stampone, C.P. Wake, and E.A. Burakowski, from The Sustainability Institute, University of New Hampshire: https://scholars.unh.edu/sustainability/71/.
"Temperatures across New Hampshire increased by an average of 3˚F since 1901. The rate of warming was greatest during the fall and winter seasons and at night. "
"There was a 12% increase in annual precipitation over the past 120 years largely due to an increase in heavy precipitation since 1971. The number of multi-day precipitation events exceeding four inches increased near the coast and in the White Mountains while areas inland and in the far north saw an increase in the number of daily one-inch events.."
"From 1971-2020, the amount of water stored in the snowpack decreased from 59-91% across central New Hampshire. Over the same period, spring ice-out dates on Lake Winnipesaukee and Lake Sunapee shifted eight and 11 days earlier, respectively.."
A 200-year History of Climate Science
A timeline provided by the American Institute of Physics
About CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The Carbon Cycle: short- versus long-term carbon (ie. biomass versus fossil fuels)
Why is burning wood different than burning coal? Because when a tree falls, all or most of all of the carbon in it will end up back in the air in the span of a human life-time and another tree can grow in it's place, removing the same amount of carbon from the air in that same timeframe. It's a balanced, sustainable cycle (land-use changes not withstanding).
Fossil fuels consist of carbon that hasn't been in the air for hundreds of millions of years. When that carbon was last in the air, the Earth's climate was much warmer and the sea level was hundreds of feet higher than today - something for which dinosaurs and life on Earth at that time were well adapted. Our infrastructure, food and water systems, bodies, and the nature around us are not suited to withstand the higher global temperatures and sea level of that previous age.
IPBES: Ecological Services and Biodiversity Loss
Ecosystems around the world are being impacted by human-caused climate change, from coral reefs to Arctic tundra. This is a major driver of the Earth's sixth mass extinction.
For example, we lost 50% of the world's tropical coral reefs in the last 30 years from 1˚C of global warming since 1900. Most of that warming occurred in the last four decades.
The differences in damage to life on Earth between 1.5˚C and 2˚C of global warming are enormous. According to the IPCC SR15 report (above), we'll lose 70-90% of the world's coral reefs from 1.5˚C warming and 98-100% from 2˚C warming. The difference is about 20 years of emissions at the current rate.
On Biodiversity loss: "These culprits are, in descending order: (1) changes in land and sea use; (2) direct exploitation of organisms; (3) climate change". "climate change... impacts expected to increase... in some cases surpassing the impact of land and sea use change." - IPBES Report
See also: The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert.
A YouTube playlist of science, economics, policy, and climate communication videos
The Earth's climate is changing, and we know why through science with a high level of confidence. The political climate must change so we can address the causes. There are bipartisan ways to make that happen that will also help make our Democracy stronger: YouTube PlayList.