BYU football is 8-0.
That simple fact would have been so incomprehensible even a month ago (let alone before the season started) that it's hard to put into context. Nobody—not a soul—thought BYU would be competitive in the Big 12 this year. Most prognosticators quite realistically predicted a 5-7 record or worse. A few kinder souls penciled the Cougars into some meaningless bowl game at 6-6. Really blue-goggled BYU fans were hoping for 7-5. Few thought 8-4 was realistic, and nothing better than that was even worth discussing.
But as the Cougars scored their fourth touchdown of the day to go up 31-10 against UCF, a Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from nearby Cape Canaveral provided an appropriate backdrop for the sizeable contingent of BYU fans on hand to celebrate a team whose momentum suddenly feels...kind of unstoppable. Could this 2024 BYU squad be a team of destiny? Forty years after LaVell Edwards led BYU to the mountaintop with a national title, could the "Polynesian LaVell" and a Jewish quarterback bring the Cougars out of the wilderness and back to the promised land?
Before the season, that would have been a ludicrous question. BYU went 5-7 in 2023, posting a 2-7 conference record and losing five straight to end the season. They then made very few moves in the portal, largely returning their roster for 2024. There was absolutely no reason to believe this BYU team could even be decent, never mind win its first eight games. And yet, led by a quarterback who went 0-4 last year, an offensive coordinator whose seat was warming significantly, and a veteran group of players who believed in each other when nobody else did, the BYU Cougars are ranked #9 in the AP poll and could very well finish the regular season without a loss. What a time to be alive! Here are some thoughts from a decisive 37-24 BYU win:
The Good:
The only real concern for BYU this week was how the Cougars would handle the run on both sides of the ball. UCF had the #2 rush defense in the Big 12 and the #3 rush offense in the country coming into this game. BYU, though, seems to have figured out whatever issues allowed Oklahoma State to run the ball so effectively last week. Outside of a couple early chunk plays, the Cougars completely shut down UCF's run game, out-rushing the Knights 252 yards to 181. That's a phenomenal achievement against a team as solid on the ground (on both sides!) as UCF. Aaron Roderick and Jay Hill both deserve major credit for creating gameplans that negated UCF's only real advantages.
The BYU defense wasn't perfect in this game, but it was pretty darn good against a very dangerous rushing backfield. UCF quarterback Jacurri Brown, who gashed Iowa State's defense for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 13 carries, had a grand total of 6 (six!) rushing yards against the Cougars. Throw in the fact that he only completed 8/17 pass attempts for 96 yards and 2 interceptions, and...well...he was benched for freshman Dylan Rizk in the 4th quarter. RJ Harvey got his, rushing for 127 yards on an impressive 7.9 yards per carry, but those numbers come with the caveat that they're significantly inflated by a single 54-yard run that he broke off in the 2nd quarter. Minus that play, Harvey was held in check impressively by the BYU defense. There were some notable individual performances from Jay Hill's unit, and the headliner was Blake Mangelson. Despite playing hurt, Mangelson had a sensational game, recording a sack, batting down a pass, and generally causing havoc in the backfield. His performance was a major reason for his team's defensive success. Isaiah Glasker had another very good outing for the Cougars, picking off his second pass of the year and laying a couple of sickening hits on UCF players. BYU fans should be very excited about the fact that Glasker is only a sophomore—he's going to be really good for a long time. Jack Kelly flew a bit under the radar statistically but made plays and hit hard all over the field, including landing the pop on Jacurri Brown that led to Glasker's INT. Also of note—Faletau Satuala had the first of what I expect will be many career interceptions, making him the 11th different BYU player to pick off a pass this season. The Cougars force a lot of turnovers, and they spread them around liberally.
The BYU offense had a great day in all phases, thanks to a solid gameplan and UCF's total defensive ineptitude—the Knights fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof after the game. UCF's performance in this game makes me think their prior run defense stats were a bit of a mirage. On the ground, the Cougars were led by an efficient performance from LJ Martin, who rushed for 101 yards on 6.7 yards per carry before sitting nearly the entire second half—no sense in letting him get hurt when the outcome wasn't in doubt. Once LJ was done for the day, the BYU offense became the Hinckley Ropati Show, and Hinckley had himself a nice game as well, rushing for 83 yards on 6.4 yards per carry. LJ finally overtook Jake Retzlaff as the Cougars' leading rusher for the season in this game, but Retzlaff still had a respectable day running the ball which included a 29-yard touchdown on BYU's opening drive. We'll talk about BYU's first half defensive struggles in a moment, but the main reason UCF only had 10 points in spite of those issues was that the Cougars totally dominated time of possession. UCF's offense couldn't gash the Cougars because the Knights rarely touched the ball.
In the passing game, Jake Retzlaff's statistically bizarre three-game streak of throwing for exactly 218 yards came to an end—he ended up with 228. The Cougars' two star wide receivers, Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter, each had great games as usual. But beyond those two, it was nice to see Jake spread the ball around—despite the fact that he only completed 16 total passes in a run-heavy game, those passes went to nine different receivers. Parker Kingston had perhaps his best-ever game catching the ball, nabbing four receptions to tie the team high. A week after I praised Mata'ava Ta'ase for his blocking (which he did well again this week, by the way), he got in on the receiving act as well, catching his third touchdown pass of the season—a score which was spectacularly punctuated by the SpaceX liftoff, which happened at almost the exact moment Ta'ase caught the ball. Ryner Swanson, Cody Hagen, Hinckley Ropati, and Keelan Marion each got their turn for a highlight-reel reception at some point in the game. Jake's passes look so much crisper now than they did even at the start of conference play—he still puts some zip on the ball, but his aim has improved significantly and even his hard throws are much more catchable. Now, his arm strength has gone from a liability to an advantage—he's started completing throws on sideline routes that he just couldn't make at the beginning of the season. He's peaking at exactly the right time, and it's a major reason behind the Cougars' 8-0 record.
One particularly notable area where the BYU offense has found success this season is the two-minute drill. After UCF kicked a field goal to cut their deficit to 17-10 with 59 seconds left in the first half, it took the BYU offense just 32 seconds to score on a Jake Retzlaff bomb to Chase Roberts. It takes a quarterback with serious poise and receivers who run great routes to execute two-minute drills consistently, and this BYU team has both. If you give the Cougars too much time, they will hurt you.
The BYU special teams unit is having way too much fun. Kelly Poppinga's squad has pulled out all the stops this season—a kickoff return TD against Wyoming, a punt return TD a week later against Kansas State, a massive fake punt against Baylor, and now Poppinga's latest playcalling confection: a double-snap fake field goal which Will Ferrin took for 8 yards and a first down. Kalani Sitake's BYU teams have never lacked aggression, sometimes to their detriment—who can forget the time he called a fake punt from his own end zone on 4th-and-19 against Boise State back in 2016? But when that aggression is paired with smart play designs, situational awareness, and great execution, it produces some hilarious and exciting highlights. That drive eventually stalled and ended with a real field goal by Ferrin, but still—it's good to enjoy the game and play like you're having fun. Ferrin, by the way, is having an outstanding season—he's connected on 14/17 field goal attempts and is a perfect 33/33 on extra points. He's made some big kicks this season, and the Cougars are fortunate to have a consistent leg to rely on in critical moments.
The Bad:
In the first half of this game, the BYU defense showed signs of the same edge and gap integrity issues they had against Oklahoma State. RJ Harvey got loose early for a 54-yard run, then cashed in a short touchdown on the next play. But the worst stretch of the game for the Cougars came on UCF's final meaningful possession of the first half—backed up to their own 7-yard line and facing 3rd-and-16, the Knights somehow picked up a first down on a simple tunnel screen that fooled the BYU defense completely. Then, a couple of plays later, another UCF screen led to a pickup of 40 yards into the BYU red zone. Thankfully, the Cougar defense eventually got its equilibrium back, helped by one of the dumbest penalties I've ever seen—after breaking loose a nice run and trucking Crew Wakley on his way out of bounds, Jacurri Brown stood over Wakley and taunted him for several seconds, drawing an unsportsmanlike conduct flag that pushed his team back 15 yards, negating his great play and ultimately forcing the Knights to settle for a field goal. Brown's hotheadedness saved a BYU defense that was very much stumbling at that point in the game. The score might have been tied (or worse) at halftime if not for Brown's mistake and the BYU offense's ability to possess the ball—the Cougar defense wasn't stopping much in the first half, but thankfully, it was also rarely on the field. It feels like it's been since the Kansas State game that we've seen this BYU team play four full quarters of really good defense. It's clear that the gameplanning and talent are there—the Cougars just need to execute consistently.
I've complained about this before (as has just about every BYU fan), but the Kalani Sitake era has been largely defined by a total inability to win with style. Some of that appears to be intentional—Kalani, the epitome of class and sportsmanship, would never allow his team to run up the score on a beaten opponent. Sometimes, though, he takes that ethos to an extreme and it becomes problematic. The Cougars led this game 34-10 at one point, but then emptied their defensive bench and gave up two lightning-quick touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. I'm sorry, but 37-24 objectively does not look as impressive as 34-10, especially against a decidedly lower-tier Big 12 opponent. Now, none of this matters if the Cougars go undefeated—in fact, thanks to the playoff system, if they manage to win every game, they are objectively guaranteed to win a national title. But what if they don't win every game? If the Cougars lose one of their final four regular season games (in all of which they're the heavy favorite), or even if they win all of them but lose in the conference title game, they will be left hoping for an at-large playoff berth—and all of the sudden, style points will matter. The average voter or committee member is not going to delve into box scores for every top team. As a result, final scores do matter—you most certainly would prefer that committee member to see a 24-point win instead of a 13-point win. The reality of a 12-team playoff with at-large bids is that you do need to play for style points. Kalani must learn that. Dominating a team for three quarters and then letting off the gas and slogging to a 13-point win is fine if you win every game, but if you don't, it could be the difference between making or missing the playoff. LaVell Edwards, the consummate gentleman and coach's coach, had no problem scoring bushels of points against vastly inferior opponents. Why? Because at the time, the only way for a WAC team to earn any respect was to put up gaudy statistics. You couldn't afford to beat UTEP 35-20—you had to win 83-7 and put up 700 yards of total offense in order to get noticed. If the Cougars end up fighting for an at-large playoff spot, they're going to regret not having more decisive wins over teams like UCF, Baylor, Wyoming, and even SIU.
To be honest, the fact that I just spent an entire paragraph talking about BYU's playoff chances is insane. This entire season feels a little surreal—please don't wake me up anytime soon! If you had told me before the season that BYU would be undefeated and ranked in the top 10 through eight games, I would have thought you were trolling me. I think most BYU fans would have felt similarly. Nobody saw this coming. This BYU team doesn't have the on-paper talent of some of the other top teams in the nation, but they're a plucky, gritty group of guys who play for each other.
Which is funny, because that's exactly what Utah was supposed to be this season—but that didn't quite work out. The Utes are on a four-game skid that has included losses to mediocre Arizona, TCU, and Houston teams and the resignation of offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig. After the Utes lost Cam Rising to a season-ending ankle injury against Arizona State, they benched backup Isaac Wilson in the second half of the Houston game. Unfortunately, their offense didn't run all that much better with erstwhile 3rd-stringer Brandon Rose in the game. Utah's program is frankly a mess right now, and even the Utes' best players are starting to voice concerns. But as the Cougars enter their bye week and prepare for their first conference matchup with Utah since 2010, it will be important for them not to let their guard down. Holy War games can get very weird, very quickly. Over the last 20 years, BYU teams have found some incredibly bizarre and stupid ways to lose to Utah even when heavily favored. The 2015 Las Vegas Bowl comes to mind: despite being arguably better than the Utes in all three phases of the game that season, the Cougars lost because Tanner Mangum threw three interceptions and the offense also lost two fumbles, all in the 1st quarter, and the Utes turned all five of those turnovers into touchdowns. Utah led 35-0 after one quarter, and even though the Cougars outscored the Utes 28-0 for the rest of the game, it just wasn't enough. Now, I unequivocally do not expect this Jake Retzlaff-led offense to self-destruct like that in the 1st quarter. This BYU team is better in all areas than its 2015 counterpart, and the Utes look significantly worse than their 2015 team this year. But nothing is ever certain when BYU and Utah face off—if there's a game left on the Cougars' schedule where they are likeliest to faceplant, it's this one.
Still, on balance, it's much more probable that BYU wins on November 9. This is Utah's worst team since at least 2013, and the Utes' moribund offense poses no threat whatsoever to Jay Hill's defense. As long as the Cougars can hang onto the ball, they should beat Utah going away. What then? The Cougars' last three opponents are Kansas, Arizona State, and Houston in that order. Houston is terrible—their win over Utah notwithstanding, they shouldn't be much of a problem. Kansas could get weird—the Jayhawks are a miserable 2-6 on the season, but five of their six losses have been by a touchdown or less and they just pushed a very good Kansas State team right to the edge before losing on a last-second field goal. That could be a trap game for BYU, but I would expect the Cougars to win with even a below-average performance. Arizona State is the only team left on the schedule besides Utah that still makes me a little nervous—Cam Skattebo might be the best running back in a conference absolutely loaded with talent at that position. But if the Cougars prepare for him as well as they did for RJ Harvey, that game should also be a win. It still feels completely insane to say this, but the BYU Cougars could very well be 12-0 and ranked in the top 5 heading into the Big 12 championship game. And from there, the sky is genuinely the limit. As long as they keep winning, they keep playing, until there's nothing left to play for.