With 1:52 left in the first half of this game, Iowa State scored a touchdown to take a 24-10 lead over what had been, to that point, a somewhat hapless BYU team. The Cyclones had already scored a 75-yard touchdown on their first offensive play, and had torched the normally resolute BYU defense repeatedly throughout the half to build a two-score lead. At that point, it looked like the Cougars were finally cooked. A second straight 8-0 start would not happen. Nothing was going right on either side of the ball. ESPN's metrics gave ISU an 86.2% chance of winning.
But, of course, this team doesn't know what it means to be cooked. These Cougars might really just be Built Different. Immediately after the Cyclones took that 24-10 lead, a big kickoff return by Cody Hagen set up the BYU offense with a short field; Bear Bachmeier then led a surgical 60-yard touchdown drive. From there, BYU utterly dominated the rest of the game, outscoring Iowa State 31-3. The Cougars went from playing their worst football of the season to looking like national title contenders, seemingly at the flip of a switch.
This BYU team isn't perfect--the Cougars have plenty of wrinkles to iron out. But at the end of the day, they have been better, or at least tougher, than every one of the eight opponents they've lined up against. Here are some thoughts on their latest, greatest comeback win, a 41-27 victory at Iowa State:
The Good:
This game marked the latest step in Bear Bachmeier's progression as a quarterback. With LJ Martin lost to injury early, the BYU run game essentially became a non-factor (more on that later), and it was left to Bear to keep the Cougar offense running without its most effective weapon. Bear was nothing short of amazing. He completed 22 of 35 pass attempts for 307 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and he added a team-high 49 rushing yards. He didn't just run the offense, he became the offense. It's been incredible to watch his progression as a true freshman. He has been better than anyone could reasonably have expected this year. It would have sounded insane to say this at the start of the season, but Jake Retzlaff transferring was the best thing that could have happened to this team.
BYU's dynamic receiving duo of Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston was phenomenal again in this game. Kingston posted 133 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches, while Roberts had eight catches for 128 yards. The Cougars could not have asked for a better pair of weapons to put at the disposal of their true freshman QB; as good as Bear has been, I suspect that Chase and Parker have made him look much better than he otherwise would have. And the news gets even better for game 9, as JoJo Phillips is expected to return for the Texas Tech game. Roberts, Kingston, and Phillips will be a potent three-headed monster for opposing secondaries to deal with.
Despite being somewhat limited by injuries, the BYU defense continues to impress. The Cougars sacked ISU quarterback Rocco Becht four times and intercepted him three times, all while getting consistent pressure against what had hitherto been one of the best pass blocking lines in the nation. Bear and the offense were heroic in the comeback effort, but the defense made the comeback possible, holding the Cyclones to just a single field goal after halftime. The player of the game for the BYU defense--indeed, the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Week--was safety Faletau Satuala, who shrugged off being burned for a long touchdown early and produced a dominant performance, with a team-high ten tackles and the game-sealing pick-six. Another major contributor for the Cougars was defensive end Bodie Schoonover, who had a pair of fourth quarter sacks as part of his best performance in a BYU uniform.
Will Ferrin deserves so much credit for his consistency. He made both of his field goal attempts in this game, including a 50-yard bomb in the second quarter, and extended his program-record streak of made PATs into the triple digits, at 104. His leg is a remarkable weapon and has been a major difference-maker for the Cougars this season, and there is little doubt that he will retire as the greatest kicker ever to play at BYU.
The Bad:
There was a reason the Cougars got into such a large hole early, and it was largely down to a defense struggling with injuries. Safety Raider Damuni is still out, linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker played but were far from 100%, and defensive tackle Anisi Purcell played (and recorded a sack) but left the game with an injury. These defensive injuries were brutal for BYU, with Iowa State exploiting the numerous gaps to move the ball virtually at will in the first half. The Cougars' bye week could not have been timed better, and they are likely to be much closer to full strength against Texas Tech than they were over the last few games.
Injuries affected the offense, too--specifically, the run game. With Sione Moa's injury looking more and more like it might end his season, the Cougars are already down to essentially one viable every-down back in LJ Martin, and he left this game in the first quarter with an injury. The Cougars rotated Preston Rex and Enoch Nawahine at tailback for the rest of the game, and neither was particularly effective. BYU's running back depth has reached a positively alarming state--without Martin, the Cougars really don't have a meaningful run game to speak of. And as bad as the Rex/Nawahine combination looked against Iowa State's subpar defense, it would likely look much worse against Texas Tech's world-class defensive line.
BYU committed a ton of penalties in this game--an unusual number, even accounting for the loud environment. The Cougars got behind the sticks way too often, particularly in the first half, and it really hurt their ability to sustain drives. Ultimately, the BYU offense proved too much for ISU's catastrophically depleted secondary to handle in the second half regardless of penalties, but the Cougars will need to clean up those mistakes in a big way for their next matchup. Texas Tech will present an even rowdier environment than Iowa State did, and the Red Raiders have a much, much more formidable defense than the injury-plagued Cyclones.
It's not an exaggeration to say that BYU's next game, on the road at Texas Tech, is the most significant game the program has faced since the 1984 Holiday Bowl. It is, in fact, the first all-Top 10 matchup in the history of BYU football. The Cougars, ranked 8th in the AP Poll and 7th in the opening College Football Playoff rankings, have not had this much to play for in a very, very long time. A BYU win on Saturday would very nearly lock the Cougars into the Big 12 title game and would go a long way towards ensuring them a spot in the playoff. Conversely, a loss, while not crippling, would certainly reduce BYU's margin of error. The stakes are incredibly high for both teams (Tech is ranked 9th and 8th in the respective polls), and the nation has taken notice--ESPN's College Gameday is making the trek out to Lubbock, marking the first time since 2008 that a BYU team has been featured in a Gameday matchup.
I honestly don't know how to predict BYU-Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have one of the nation's best defenses, led by a legitimate Heisman candidate in linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Bizarrely, the Cougars have actually faced Rodriguez before--he was a backup quarterback and gadget player on the Bronco Mendenhall Virginia team that BYU defeated in a wild 66-49 shootout all the way back in 2021. Since then, he has put on a great deal of muscle and transformed himself into a likely first round draft prospect at linebacker. He's easily the best and most dangerous individual opposing player the Cougars have faced this season. Tech's defense, at home, backed by their raucous crowd, will be an extraordinary challenge for BYU's dynamic, freshman-led offense.
Fortunately, the Red Raiders' offense is somewhat more beatable. Quarterback Behren Morton is competent, but not especially dynamic, and he is extremely vulnerable to pressure--his PFF passing grade drops over thirty points between unpressured and pressured throws. He isn't helped by a somewhat anemic rushing attack, which is likely to struggle against BYU's very effective run defense. If the BYU pass rush can find a way to get home with some regularity, the Cougars will likely be able to contain Tech's offense fairly effectively. The Cougars will be helped by a host of players returning from injury thanks to the bye week--star linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker are back to 100%, and safety Raider Damuni is also expected to play for the first time since the Arizona game.
I expect this game to be an offensive slugfest wherein the team that makes the fewest mistakes (that is, penalties and turnovers) will win. Optimistically, I think that could look like a 27-24 win for BYU, or something in that neighborhood. But make no mistake--this is likely the toughest test ever faced by a Kalani Sitake-coached team. It should be a very fun game, and the Cougars have so much to play for. Here's to hoping they can pull it off.