Hockey has long-standing beliefs that have never been evidence based. In this conservative culture that thumbs it’s nose at new ideas and ways of thinking about the game has seen a bit of a “revolution” in theories of how to approach the game. As more and more advanced statistics are becoming available to the public due to the work of some great statisticians, we are beginning to see patterns emerge into what makes an effective player and team.

Stats like Corsi (shot attempts), xG (expected goals) and Zone Entries and Exits tracking have been instrumental in creating a sense of order in a chaotic game. One such area that is fascinating to me is the passing work being done by Corey Sznjader. Sznjader breaks passes down by types and also tracks how many of those passes lead to shot attempts.

With this information in mind, I wanted to take a look and see if there were any patterns and habits of the most prolific “playmakers” (assists leaders) of the past four seasons. What did these guys do in their passing that has lead to such high assist totals. How did they make these passes and how does each players skill set play into the passes they make.

First, lets begin with what these guys are doing. We will look at their total assist numbers, 5 on 5 assists, their passes by type, how well those passes lead to shot attempts and dangerous shot attempts, and if any of them are relying on 2nd assists to pad their numbers.

When I first looked at the leaders in assists from 2015-16 through the first few games of this season, Connor McDavid, Blake Wheeler, Patrick Kane, Nikita Kuckerov, and Sidney Crosby where the top 5 players. (data from Corey Sznjader and CJ Turtoro)

There were no surprises here, but Wheeler being so high was a bit unexpected. All five of these players are elite passers, and their assist totals back that up. However, when we account for PP assists and just look at 5 on 5 assists, the order shifts a bit. This gives us an indication as to what players may rely more on the Powerplay to create shot attempts than the others. Wheeler and Kucherov are both far more reliant on PP assists, and both drop in the top 5 when it is just for 5 on 5 assists.

Now, let us take a look at what kind of passes these players tend to use.

Key: Royal Road is a pass that is across the slot, Behind the Net is from behind the net to the slot, Low to High are passes from low to the point. These passes are 5 on 5 only.

Perhaps to no surprise, we see that Wheeler and Kucherov don’t make passes at the same rate as their counterparts 5 on 5. This is especially true for Wheeler who leads no category and is either last or 2nd to last in all four.

This chart makes it easy to see that all 5 guys really like the one-timer. McDavid is stands alone in his ability to generate One-Timer and Low-to-High passes. Crosby is the only one who is above 1.0 for Behind the Net passes.. Patrick Kane seems to have the most balanced passing attack. He can make that pass across the Royal-Road better than anyone, and he is only behind McDavid in Low-to-High and One-Timers, and only behind Crosby in Behind-the-Net. Our understanding of what these guys do is getting better, but there is more to consider.

As mentioned before, when PP assists are taken out, the order begins to change. This is not to say that powerplay play is not worth as much as 5 on 5. In fact, having players who are excellent on the man advantage is a great leg-up on your opponents. However, I place more value on 5 on 5 play as it is the more common type of play and is significantly more difficult to generate offense in it. Therefore, players that can I find a lot more valuable. So, let’s take away PP assists and just look at 5on5 and see what that looks like by itself. Unfortunately, that means Wheeler and Kucherov leave our analysis for a bit as their numbers don’t match up with the other 3. Surprisingly, a new name emerges when PP assists are taken out: Artemi Panarin. Of his 206 total assists, 156 were at even strength.

Now that we have added him, let’s take a look at Panarin’s passing profile.

Heck, let’s add him to the first chart too, See how he matches up with the other guys.

At first glance, Panarin seems a bit like Blake Wheeler in that he stands out in a bad way on the chart. This is due to his relatively low One-Timers and Low-to-High passes. However, when we look again we notice that Panarin is only behind Kane and McDavid (barely) in Royal-Road passes and Kane (barely) and Crosby in Behind-the-Net passes. He is not reliant as reliant on Low-to-High and Royal-Road passes as his peers.

The picture is becoming more clear on what these guys do, but we still need to focus in on some areas, and widen out in others. In short, we need some context. That context will come in the widening out: league averages for these passes, and first vs second assist totals; and in zooming in: the rate in which their passes lead to shot attempts and dangerous shot attempts.

First- let’s add in league average to our fun chart: (if on phone, click on chart for better view)

This chart makes McDavid stand out even more than before in Low-to-High and One-Timer passes, but makes him look far more human in Royal-Road and Behind-the-Net. What it does for all of our guys is it highlights that they are all better than league average. Each player is above league average in all the categories or at least 3 of the 4.

Let’s stay wide and see what percentage of their assists are second assists. I had some odd discrepancies in 5 on 5 assist totals from naturalstatstrick.com (for 1st and 2nd assist numbers) didn’t line up with NHL.com’s EV Assists numbers in the range I searched for the piece. Therefore, I am presenting the percentage of 2nd assists as calculated by naturalstatstrick.com

Nothing jumps off the chart on this one. Only thing that kind of registers is that Kucherov is the only one over 40%. Other than that, no real surprises with everyone essentially in the same range of 60/40 - 70/30.

Now it is time to narrow our focus to complete the picture. Lets add in the rates in which their passes lead to shots and their passes lead to dangerous shots (this is determined by Royal-Road and Behind-the-Net passes).

This is perhaps the most informative chart. We know what kind of passes they do. We know that they are all better at passing than their peers. We know that none of them are feeding of second assists. And now we know the rate in which their passes lead to shot attempts and not just shot attempts, but the most dangerous ones.

This is where a type of passer begins to emerge purely from the numbers.

Wheeler is so far away from everyone else in 5 on 5 rates, but that drop off doesn’t really affect his totals. He obviously makes some of that up with the powerplay, but he also had the lowest 2nd assist percentage. This is when it would be awesome to see shooting percentages off of the passes these guys are giving out. A pass to a shot attempt is great, but it doesn’t lead to an assist. The fact Wheeler has such a high assist total with such low rates seems to indicate the guys on the other end know how to finish.

Kucherov seems to rely most on quantity. His total-pass-to-shots-per-60 has him right up with McDavid and Panarin, but his danger-shots-from pass is only ahead of Wheeler. This plays out in his numbers from the passing type data. He relies far more on One-Timers and Low-to-High, which aren’t considered dangerous. Same as with Wheeler, Kucherov uses the powerplay to make up for his lower 5 on 5 assist totals.

McDavid and Panarin have a nice balance. They make a good amount of passes that lead to shots, and a good amount of passes on the RR and from BTN. For Panarin, we know he is doing most of his actual assists total damage at 5 on 5, which adds up as both of his per/60 rates are impressive.

Then there is Kane. He seems to be more selective in his passes, and it pays off as his dangerous shots from pass rates is ridiculous. He is the only one above 2.0, while also having the lowest total-shot-from passes rate. This indicates to me that he is deliberate in his passes and likes to work low then across ice as he passes.

Who really stands alone here though is Sidney Crosby. He is balanced and elite. His passes that lead to shots is far higher than anyone else, and he is only behind Kane in passes that lead to dangerous shots.

While the numbers tell us what these guys do, they do nothing to explain the how. Each player is very different in their skill set that they bring to the game. How do they all make it work best for them? How are they the best playmakers in the game? And, are there patterns and habits they all do that the rest of us can imitate in order to improve our own passing game?

The Thesis

All of these players are different in their own unique ways. They have different body types, backgrounds, and rates of team success. However, they share approaches to the game that can be seen in all of their games that lead to them being so effective as play-makers. They are all masters of manipulating space off puck and on puck, they all have a calmness to their game with the puck on their stick, they have no fear in trying passes, and they all are proactive, not reactive, in their play.