Working Papers
Social Security Reform, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions. NEW VERSION!
with Pedro ferreira and Rafael Parente. Conditionally accepted - International Economic Review
Low-wage import competition, innovation and growth.
with Pedro Ferreira and Heron Rios.
Work in progress
From Malthus to Malthus.
with Pedro Ferreira, Alex Monge-Naranjo, and Luciene Torres.
A veneer of common structural transformation patterns conceals vast differences in the growth and distribution of human capital of countries. In one extreme, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and some segments of China, have transitioned, within just two generations, from prototypical agrarian Malthusian economies to fast-growing, high-skill-intensive modern service economies. In the other extreme, many countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia have transitioned from Malthusian to pseudo-Malthusian economies: Mostly urban but intensive in low-skill service jobs and with low fertility but also low upward mobility. We argue that the direction of education policies of countries is a key determinant for such divergence. In the data, those countries that prioritize subsidies to university education in detriment of elementary and secondary education are precisely the countries that end up with large segments of their population with very low education attainment. In contrast, countries that emphasize the provision of high quality elementary and secondary education are the ones that have transitioned to being modern economies. We enhance the standard quantity quality fertility-vs-education model with multiple skills and school levels and embed it in a production economy in which the non-agricultural sectors can be produced with different skill intensities. We show that the model quite naturally replicates the divergent dynamics of countries according to their observed emphasis in their provision of education. We then calibrate the model to the experience of different countries and show that counterfactuals on their education policies would have resulted in huge differences in their current level of development.
Allocation of talent in teacher’s occupation and Economic Growth.
with Pedro ferreira and Rafael Serrano.
Structural Transformation and Informality.
with Luiz Brotherhood and Rafael Serrano.
Publications
Production Networks and Structural Transformation. Paper Accepted at Economic Modelling.
with Fernando Barros, Marcos Ribeiro, and Marc Teignier.
Do consumption Categories respond differently to indebtedness shocks across business cycle stages?. Applied Economic Letters. 2025.
with Fernando Barros, Fabio Gomes, and Juliano Galle.
Durable and Nondurable Consumption Responses to Indebtedness Shocks: A Cross-Country Analysis. Economics Bulletin (accepted). 2025.
with Fernando Barros, Fabio Gomes, and Juliano Galle.
Deposit Insurance in a Sequential-Service Constrained Environment. Mathematical Social Sciences. 2025.
with Fernando Barros, Samuel Cruz, and Diego Silva.
Natural disasters and financial technology adoption. Economics Letters. 2025.
with Fernando Barros, Valdemar de Pinho Neto and Victor Rodrigues.
Capital Misallocation and Economic Development in a Dynamic Open Economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2024.
with Luciene Torres., Heron Rios and Rafael Serrano.
Tax Reforms and Network Effects. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2024.
with Pedro Ferreira, Diego Gomes and Johann Soares.
Media coverage (in Portuguese): Valor Econômico; O Globo; Política Livre; Folha de São paulo; Folha de São paulo; Estado de Minas
Privatization in the Natural Gas Sector: A General Equilibrium Analysis. Latin American Economic Review. 2023.
with Rafael Serrano and Guilherme Zimmerman.
Misallocation of talent, teachers' human capital, and development in Brazil. Journal of Macroeconomics. 2023.
with Fernando Barros, Luciano Nakabashi, and Marcos Ribeiro.
Reforms in the Natural Gas Sector and Economic Development. Economic Modelling. 2023.
with Rafael Serrano and Guilherme Zimmerman.
Bonus for firearms seizures and police performance. Economics Letters. 2022.
with Fernando Barros, Valdemar de Pinho Neto and Victor Rodrigues.
Public overspending in higher education. Bulletin of Economic Research. 2022.
with Luiz Brotherhood and Luciene Torres..
Minding the Gap Between Schools and Universities. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2020.
with Luiz Brotherhood.
Early Childhood Education and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 2019.
with Pedro Ferreira.
Market frictions, misallocation of talent and development. Economics Bulletin. 2018.
with Fernando Barros.
Publications in Brazilian Journals
Serviços intermediários e produtividade agregada no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Economia. 2021.
with Pedro Ferreira and Fernando Veloso.
Predictability of Aggregate Consumption in Brazil. Brazilian Review of Econometrics. 2018.
with Fernando Barros and Valdemar de Pinho Neto.
Using common features to investigate common growth cyles for BRICS countries. Economia Aplicada. 2017.
with Joäo Victor Issler and Roberto Castello Branco.
with Pedro Ferreira.