Mobility restrictions for the control of epidemics: When do they work?

To determine when mobility restrictions reduce the size of an epidemic, we use a model of disease transmission within and between economically heterogeneous locally connected communities. We find that the overall size of an epidemic centered in the high-risk community is sensitive to the stringency of mobility restrictions between the two communities. Unrestricted mobility between the two risk communities increases the number of secondary cases in the low-risk community but reduces the overall epidemic size. By contrast, the imposition of a cordon sanitaire around the high-risk community reduces the number of secondary infections in the low-risk community but increases the overall epidemic size.

The preprint can be found here.