Publications
Several variants of the classical bivariate and multivariate generalized Pareto distributions have been discussed and studied in the literature (see Arnold (1983, 1993, 2015), Arnold and Laguna (1977), Ali and Nadarajah (2007), Rootzen and Tajvidi (2006) and the references cited therein). Ali and Nadarajah (2007) studied a truncated version of the most popular long-tailed generalized bivariate Pareto distribution (GBPD, henceforth, in short) involving six parameters. However, not much discussion exists in the current literature on the structural properties as well as on the dependence structure among the parameters in this model. In this paper we re-visit the GBPD and discuss several other new properties. In addition, we study the shape of GBPD for varying choices of the model parameters and subsequently study their interdependence. Also, we provide copula based construction of GBPD and discuss the associated local dependence measures.
Working Papers
This paper quantifies the impact of violent crime on municipal borrowing costs. Our findings reveal that higher violent crime rates significantly increase yields, spreads, and adjusted spreads. Using changes in local district attorney political party as a novel identification strategy, we show these shifts lead to increased violent crime and higher borrowing costs. This effect is concentrated in switches from Republican to Democrat, reflecting market perceptions of Democratic district attorneys as more lenient on crime. These switches also result in credit rating downgrades, reduced sales and property taxes, and increased emigration of high-net-worth individuals. Our findings underscore the significant yet previously unexplored cost of crime on public financing.
I examine the costs and real effects of medical data breaches using a stacked difference-in-differences research design. I find that data breaches increase the cost of healthcare financing and examine three mechanisms that link breaches to increased costs. While data breaches increase issuer credit risk on average, only hacks – the worst events – harm both hospital and patient health. Yet, investors do not require an incremental premium for bonds of hacked issuers. I find evidence this mispricing is further influenced by levels of investor attention. Altogether, my results suggest that investors do not appropriately price the affected securities.
I examine the costs and real effects of cyberattacks on U.S. counties using a stacked difference-in-differences research design. I find that data breaches increase the cost of municipal government debt, and I identify three mechanisms that link cyberattacks to increased costs. First, breaches increase a county’s cash flow risk via significant decreases across several cash flow accounts. Additionally, breaches increase a county’s credit risk and lead it to make budget cuts to social programs, which increases reputation risk. Overall, cyberattacks adversely affect municipal financing and influence counties to take actions that may lead to less-desirable future social and economic outcomes.
I examine how cyberattacks affect the wealth, operational performance, and business strategies of non-targeted joint venture/strategic alliance partners, suppliers, and customers. Cyberattacks are associated with large losses in stakeholder value around attack announcements. Contrary to expectations, I find that, on average, cyberattacks do not tend to adversely affect stakeholder firms over the long term. Instead, managers appear to make temporary changes that help protect their firms from potentially adverse spillovers that they later reverse. However, responses vary based on the nature of information lost from the attack and the potential damage the events may inflict on the stakeholder relationship with the target. Lastly, suppliers are more likely to retain their relationship with targeted customers post-attack, and this effect is potentially driven by their reliance on relationship-specific investments. In contrast, other stakeholders do not make adjustments to their supply chains.
Using a dataset of small business acquisitions, we investigate the impact of state-level economic policy uncertainty on small business valuations. We find that small businesses transact for prices significantly less than the seller’s asking price during periods of high uncertainty, representing a wealth transfer from sellers to buyers. This effect is concentrated in larger, more expensive firms. We also find that businesses take longer to sell and that the down payment amount decreases in periods of economic uncertainty, consistent with uncertainty increasing buyers’ risk aversion.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is a revolutionary financial service that seeks to usurp the role of the bank in the lending process by directly matching borrowers to lenders. Like many other FinTech innovations, P2P lending platforms enjoy less regulatory oversight and less restrictive “skin-in-the-game” requirements than their traditional financial counterparts. On one hand, proponents of the relaxed regulatory environment argue that the freedom allows P2P platforms to meet unmet financial needs and there are mechanisms in place (like data transparency) that are as good as official regulatory oversight. Others argue, however, that the existing mechanisms that should align the interests of P2P platforms and their investors fail to mitigate potential conflicts of interest between the two parties. Using a regulatory event as a shock to LendingClub’s investors’ trust, my preliminary results support the latter perspective by showing LendingClub inflated the credit ratings of its loan products prior to its 2016 investment fraud scandal, consequently subjecting its investors to unnecessary risk and financial loss.
Works in Process