Summary

Flood model predictions are undeniably important for informing flood management, but contain considerable uncertainty related to model structure, parameterisation, and input data. With flood predictions becoming increasingly available through online flood maps, the uncertainty in these predictions presents considerable risks related to property devaluation. Such risks relate to real estate demand, measured by location preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) to buy and rent properties, based on access to flood predictions. Here, we evaluate the impact of flood model predictions on real estate demand in the UK by adopting an interdisciplinary approach, involving flood modelling, a novel experimental WTP real estate survey of UK residents in response to flood model outputs, statistical modelling, and geospatial analysis. We also consider (a) the socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing real estate demand in response to flood model predictions and (b) public perceptions and attitudes towards coastal management schemes in the UK. Our findings will have implications for (a) refining how we use flood models to estimate flood risk and inform flood management and (b) improving flood risk communications, with the overarching objective of minimising real estate risks associated with flood modelling outputs. 


Outputs