Measuring Impacts of Systemic Risks on Canada Pension Plan Sustainability

Moderator: Daniel Bauer, Senior Associate Dean for Programs, Hickman-Larson Chair in Actuarial Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison

The Canada Pension Plan is a pillar of retirement security for millions of Canadians. In this presentation the Chief Actuary, Assia Billig, explores the evolving financial and economic landscape and presents a variety of systemic risks that could impact the long-term sustainability of the CPP. This presentation examines how key systemic risks, including demographic shifts, macroeconomic shocks, investment performance, rapid technological transition, including AI, and climate change create vulnerabilities and potential opportunities for the plan. Using sensitivity and scenario analyses, the potential impact of these risks are assessed on CPP financing and long-term sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of proactive identification and understanding of risks to ensure the continued strength and reliability of the CPP for future generations.