Research

In my research program, I apply economic theory and applied econometric tools to understand issues in agricultural markets and impact evaluation of programs and interventions in developed and developing countries. I regularly collaborate with international organizations such as the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, World Bank, and the World Food Programme.

My research focuses on market structures, market power, and supply chains in agriculture, and in developing tools for impact evaluations of programs and policies with a particular focus on local-economy general equilibrium impacts. I am also interested in integrating general equilibrium impacts of interventions within agricultural supply chains to provide economic insights and estimations of the direct and indirect benefits of policy interventions.

Secondary research topics include conflicts- and climate-change- induced population displacement such as internal migration, refugee economics, etc. and understanding livelihood diversification and coping strategies for vulnerable households in the face of climate change. I use rigorous experimental and quasi-experimental econometric approaches paired with structural methods and cost-benefit analyses in my program to evaluate and inform policy decisions.

Congolese refugee kids in Nyabiheke Refugee Camp, Rwanda (2015)

Peer-reviewed Publications

Zhu, H., Gupta, A., Doan, M. K., & Michuda, A. (2026). Misidentified household food insecurity: How relying on a single survey round produces targeting errors in food security programs. Food Security.
Lin, J., & Gupta, A. (2026). Effects of staple price fluctuations on urban and rural food consumption. Agriculture & Food Security. In Press.
Islam, D., Davis, G. C., Gupta, A., & Okrent, A. (2026). Food-at-home or food-away-from-home price increases: Which has a bigger impact on consumer welfare loss? Agricultural & Resource Economics Review.
Sembene, M., Mills, B., & Gupta, A. (2025). Economic costs of extreme heat on groundnut production in the Senegal Groundnut Basin. Food Policy, 136, 102970.
Gupta, A., Doan, M. K., Zhu, H., Whitney, E., Filipski, M., Gonzalez-Estrada, E., Ryckembusch, D., & Taylor, J. E. (2025). Rural economy-wide impacts of Kenya's home-grown school meals program. Food Policy, 134, 102887.
Das, N., Gupta, A., Mingo, C., & Zhu, H. (2025). Impacts of financial literacy training on refugee youth outcomes. The Journal of Development Studies, 61(11), 1777–1801.
Zhu, H., Gupta, A., Taylor, J. E., Filipski, M., Valli, J., & Gonzalez-Estrada, E. (2024). Economic impacts of giving land to refugees. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 106(1), 226–251.
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Bhammar, H., Whitney, E., Filipski, M., Narain, U., Spencer, P., & Taylor, J. E. (2023). Economic impact of nature-based tourism. PLOS ONE, 18(4), e0282912.
Filipski, M., Gupta, A., Kagin, J., et al. (2022). A local general-equilibrium emergency response modeling approach for Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural Economics, 53(1), 72–89.
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Doan, M. K., Michuda, A., & Majumder, B. (2021). Economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdown in a remittance-dependent region. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(2), 466–485.
Gupta, A., Zhu, H., Majumder, B., & Steinbach, S. (2018). Short-term effects of India's demonetization on the rural poor. Economics Letters, 170, 117–121.
Gupta, A., Kagin, J., Taylor, J. E., Filipski, M., Hlanze, L., & Foster, J. (2017). Is technology change good for cotton farmers? A local-economy analysis from the Tanzania Lake Zone. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 45(1), 27–56.
Alloush, M., Taylor, J. E., Gupta, A., Rojas, R. I., & Gonzalez, E. (2017). Economic life in refugee camps. World Development, 95, 334–347.
Taylor, J. E., Filipski, M., Alloush, M., Gupta, A., Rojas, R. I., & Gonzalez, E. (2016). Economic impact of refugees. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(27), 7449–7453.

Working Papers

"Social Capital and Income Spillovers: Evidence from a Social Cash Transfer Pilot Programme in Ethiopia." with J. Kagin (Kagin's Consulting), J. E. Taylor (UC Davis) et al. (under review)
"A Gendered Approach to Economic Impacts of Refugee Assistance" with D. Kumar (Virginia Tech), J. Kagin (Kagin's Consulting), J. E. Taylor (UC Davis) (under review)
"Market Power and the Welfare Spillovers from Agricultural Technology" (under review)
"Does Training Farmers on Multiple Technologies Lead to Selective Adoption?" with N. Das (Virginia Tech), R. Muniappan (Virginia Tech), M. Das (IIT Kanpur), and Binoy Majumder (Trickle Up India) (under review)
“Long-term Impacts of Poverty Programs: A Local-economy Cost-benefit Analysis of Lesotho's Child Grants Programme” with J. E. Taylor (UC Davis), B. Davis (FAO) (under review)
“Unequal Cash Transfer Spillovers” with J. E. Taylor (UC Davis), M. Filipski (U Georgia), K. Thome (ERS-USDA), B. Davis (FAO), L. Pallerano (ILO), and O. Niang (UNICEF). (May 2024)

Work in Progress

"Dynamic Livelihood Diversification Strategies in a Climate-change Vulnerable Region" with A. Michuda (Cornell), M. K. Doan (World Bank), and H. Zhu (WFP Rome). (May 2024)
"The Interaction of Convenience and Market Structure in Food Markets" with George Davis (Virginia Tech)
"The Dynamic Cost of Inaction: Impacts of Reduced Humaitarian Assistance on Food Security in Somalia and Uganda" with D. Kumar and T. Qi (Virginia Tech), J. Kagin (Kagin's Consulting), and J. E. Taylor (UC Davis)
"Assessing The Economic Effects of Typhoons using Nightlights and Household-level Electricity Data" with D. Kumar and C. Ta (Virginia Tech)
"Economic Impact of Using Fortified Rice in Cambodia's School Feeding Programme" with Y. Lee (Virginia Tech), A. Macri (UC Davis), S. Din (WFP Cambodia), and F. Wieringa (IRD France)
"Decomposing the Effects of Micro- and Macro-Factors on the Price of Food Through Changes in the Prices of Food-at-Home and Food-Away-From-Home" with A. Bhattarai and G. Davis (Virginia Tech)

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