Anthony Mayberry
Amazon PXTCS
Embedded Files
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Demilitarization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in Support of a Peace Dividend
Journal of Comparative Economics (2023)
See Also: Pre-Publication Version, Online Appendix, Presentation Slide DeckPresentations: OU (2021), Center for Naval Analysis (2022), RAND (2022), DOD Office of the Secretary of Defense CAPE (2022)Data: Demilitarization Data SetThe Economic Cost of a Nuclear Weapon: A Synthetic Control Approach
Defence and Peace Economics (2023)See Also: Pre-Publication VersionPresentations: OU (2020), Center for Naval Analysis (2022)Media: Marginal RevolutionWorking Papers
Estimating the Value of Investments in Militaristic Deterrence
Submitted
with Daniel HicksSee Also: Pre-Publication VersionMedia: Wilson CenterPresentations: 19th Defence and Security Economics Workshop (2024), Bordeaux Workshop on Defence Economics (2024)Submitted
Presentations: 10th Annual Amazon Consumer Science Summit (2023), Amazon Economist's Summit (2023), Amazon Forecasting & Macroeconomics Finance Seminar Series (2023)
Selected Work In Progress
Military Conscription, Human Capital, and Economic Growth
Abstract. The past 50 years have seen a transformation in the way countries fill the ranks of their armies. Since 1970, 51 countries have ended the practice of military conscription. Existing empirical studies suggest that ending conscription will have a positive impact on a country's economy. We use a recently updated data set of country-level military recruitment to test this hypothesis in a semi-parametric difference-in-difference setting. We find that countries ending conscription actually see their economies contract in the immediate aftermath. However, this contraction does not affect every country equally. Countries with larger endowments of human capital suffer a smaller drop in GDP per capita.
The Transition of War
Abstract. This article offers a unified approach for studying the evolving nature of war. Specifically, the decline in magnitude of violence since the second World War. We formulate a model where a state actor has agency over the magnitude of violence taking place in order to study how development factors may drive the size and intensity of conflict. The model predicts a negative relationship between development and the willingness to proliferate more extreme violence; and suggests a natural empirical approach. Exploiting only within-country variation in the data, we show that the magnitude of war is associated with shocks that can affect income.
The Threat of Nuclear Armageddon and the Macroeconomy
Abstract. We investigate the impact of nuclear threat shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past sixty years. Using a non-linear vector auto-regressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. We find that an increase in the nuclear threat Geopolitical Risk index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to twelve months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to an increase in the threat of nuclear Armageddon in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level.Page updated
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