offline”.39 Little left to lose The development of multiple vaccines may herald the beginning of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis—but the structural fissures that the crisis exacerbated, from individual well-being to societal resilience and global stability, threaten to make that recovery deeply uneven. “Livelihood crises”, “digital Health systems globally were already under strain from gathering pressures and emerging public health threats—a worrying trend analysed in depth in the False Positive chapter of last year’s Global Risks Report.33 Half of the world’s population lacks access to essential health services, and shortfalls in public health push 100 working women who believe their careers 70 will be slowed % REUTERS/THAPLIYAL The Global Risks Report 2021 20 inequality”, “youth disillusionment” and “social cohesion erosion” all show up in the GRPS as critical global threats for the next two years. Narrowing pathways Across developed and developing economies alike, the number of people without access to quality and affordable healthcare, education or digital tools is at risk of increasing. Billions of people face narrowing pathways to future well-being. In the short term, equitable and effective vaccine distribution is at risk from protectionist tendencies and geopolitical tensions—just as these tendencies and tensions put essential medical supplies at risk when the pandemic started (see Hindsight). In the longer term, inequitable access to quality healthcare will persist as a result of continued stress on healthcare systems globally. Health capacity in some European countries has already suffered from prolonged austerity measures.40 In Sub-Saharan Africa, 20% of people over 60—the highest-risk age group—are at least three hours away from the nearest health facility.41 Such obstacles have complicated the response to the pandemic. Looking ahead, failing to close public health gaps will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and risk further humanitarian and economic damage. Barriers to education and technology— long-proven channels for economic advancement—have grown higher; especially for youth (see Chapter 3, Pandemials). Education systems worldwide are set to undergo a challenging structural transformation underpinned by widespread adoption of online learning. This shift can potentially reduce costs and expand access,42 but students and workers who lack the digital tools, online access and knowledge to participate are at risk of being excluded (see Chapter 2, Error 404).43 “Digital inequality”—ranked as the fifth most concerning short-term threat to the world—is increasing within and between countries. The growing gap between the technological “haves” and “havenots”—amid pressures on public and private finances that could limit critical investments in digital education—will impede individual economic mobility. Physical mobility—another channel for economic advancement—is at risk too. Domestically, the digital leap forward can allow businesses to reduce costs by relocating them away from city centres, but workers in hands-on industries or without the means or flexibility to move to new production centres could be stranded. Internationally, restrictions on movement brought in during the pandemic may be slow to ease given geopolitical tensions, jeopardizing opportunities for the world’s 250 million migrant workers and their dependents.44 Global remittances are expected to decrease by more than 14% by 2021.45 Societal fragmentation As public health gaps, digital inequality, educational disparities and unemployment—risks that result from a complex combination of existing inequalities and the impact of the pandemic—affect vulnerable groups the most, they may further fray social cohesion. Unsurprisingly, “social cohesion erosion” and “livelihood crises” are among the highest-likelihood and highest-impact long-term risks in the GRPS (see Figure II, Global Risks Landscape). Too many people have little left to lose. The global recession is now expected to force as many as 150 million more people into extreme poverty, increasing the total to 9.4% of the world’s population—it was expected to fall to 8% by the end of 2020.46 This setback in the global development agenda will heighten vulnerability to future shocks and threaten Public health gaps, digital inequality, educational disparities and unemployment may fray social cohesion The Global Risks Report 2021 21 FIGURE 1.2 Fiscal Response to COVID-19 and Expected Growth in 2020 Mexico Expected growth in 2020 (annual) Saudi Arabia Russia China Argentina Indonesia Germany India Brazil Turkey Australia Canada United States France Italy Japan Fiscal response as of 12 January 2021 (% of GDP) -Source: Data for the fiscal response from IMF, Policy Tracker, “Policy Responses to COVID-19”, https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/PolicyResponses-to-COVID19#:~: January 2021; expected annual growth data from IMF, 2020, World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent. October 2020, 020. Note: Data are as of 12 January 2021. This figure considers direct and indirect fiscal stimulus measures in select economies for which data is reported as a percent of GDP by the IMF. These include cash transfers, credits and loans, debt facilities, funding for healthcare and unemployment aid, among others. the erosion or collapse of states: more than