Commodity shocks Commodity shocks Adverse tech Adverse tech advances Adverse tech advances advances Illicit economic activity Illicit economic activity Mental health deterioration Mental health deterioration Multilateralism collapse Multilateralism collapse Industry collapse Industry collapse State collapse State collapse Backlash against science Backlash against science Price instability Price instability pe 2021 e impact ↑ and likelihood → of global risks? eption Survey 2020 ked to assess the likelihood of the individual 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to ery likely to occur over the course of the next ten he impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, pact and 5 a catastrophic impact. To ensure obal risks are abbreviated. Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological 3.5 3.5 44 Average 3.28 Climate action failure Climate action failure Infectious diseases Infectious diseases Human environmental damage Human environmental damage Extreme weather Extreme weather Biodiversity loss Biodiversity loss Livelihood crises Livelihood crises Cybersecurity failure Cybersecurity failure Digital power concentration Digital power concentration Natural resource crises Natural resource crises Social cohesion erosion Social cohesion erosion Interstate relations fracture Interstate relations fracture Debt crises Involuntary migration Involuntary migration Prolonged stagnation Digital inequality Digital inequality Resource geopolitization Resource geopolitization Asset bubble burst Asset bubble burst e conflict e conflict Youth disillusionment Youth disillusionment Geophysical disasters Geophysical disasters Public infrastructure failure Tech governance failure Tech governance failure Terrorist attacks Terrorist attacks ech ech ech advances advances advances mic activity mic activity Mental health deterioration Mental health deterioration sm collapse sm collapse Methodology Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur over the course of the next ten years. They also assessed the impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility,the names of the global risks are abbreviated. How do respondents perceive the impact and likelihood of global risks? Top Risks by impact Infectious diseases Climate action failure Weapons of mass destruction Biodiversity loss Natural resource crises Human environmental damage Livelihood crises Extreme weather Debt crises IT infrastructure breakdown Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Top Risks by likelihood 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Extreme weather Climate action failure Human environmental damage Infectious diseases Biodiversity loss Digital power concentration Digital inequality Interstate relations fracture Cybersecurity failure Livelihood crises FIGURE II Global Risks Landscape Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 The Global Risks Report 2021 13 FIGURE III Global Risks Network Visit https://www.weforum.org/global-risks to explore the Global Risks Network interactive graphic What drives global risks? Respondents rank the most concerning risks globally and their drivers. 8th 6th 4th 2nd 1st 3rd 5th 7th 9th Extreme Weather Debt Crises Social Cohesion Erosion Infectious Diseases Climate Action Failure Livelihood Crises Biodiversity Loss Prolonged Stagnation Human Environmental Damage Survey respondents were asked to rank order the three risks they consider to be the most concerning for the world. Respondents were then asked to select up to five risks they consider will be driving their top concerns over the course of the next 10 years, with no particular ordering. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for full names and descriptions. Read more about the methodology: Arc = Drivers Inner Arc = Risks Economic IT Infrastructure Breakdown Digital Power Concentration Involuntary Migration Interstate Conflict Adverse Tech Advances Social Cohesion Erosion Digital Inequality Infectious Diseases Debt Crises Asset Bubble Burst Youth Disillusionment Prolonged Stagnation Social Security Collapse Livelihood Crises Extreme Weather Multilateralism Collapse Climate Action Failure Biodiversity Loss Resource Geopolitilization Interstate Relations Fracture Human Environmental Damage Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technology Line Thickness = Strength of Causality - + 8th 6th 4th 2nd 1st 3rd 5th 7th 9th The Global Risks Report 2021 14 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th Top Global Risks by Likelihood Top Global Risks by Impact Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological FIGURE IV Evolving Risks Landscape Income disparity Greenhouse gas emissions Water crises Population ageing Income disparity Unemployment Climate action failure Extreme Cyberattacks weather Interstate conflict Failure of national governance State collapse or crisis Extreme