R&R at Review of Economic Studies
We examine effects of government-imposed employment targets on firm behavior. Theoretically, such policies create “polarization," causing low-productivity firms to exit the market while others temporarily distort their employment upward. Dynamically, firms are incentivized to improve productivity to meet targets. Using novel data from East German firms post-privatization, we find that firms with binding employment targets experienced 25% higher annual employment growth, a 1.1% higher annual exit probability, and 10% higher annual productivity growth over the target period. Structural estimates reveal substantial misallocation of labor across firms and that subsidizing productivity growth would yield twice the long term increases in employment.
We study how connections to German federal parliamentarians affect firm dynamics by constructing a novel dataset linking politicians and election candidates to the universe of firms. To identify the causal effect of access to political power, we exploit (i) new appointments to the company leadership team and (ii) discontinuities around the marginal seat of party election lists. Our results reveal that connections lead to reductions in firm exits, gradual increases in employment growth without improvements in productivity. Adding information on credit ratings, subsidies and procurement contracts allows us to distinguish between mechanisms driving the effects over the politician’s career.
The Effects of Patent-Induced Shocks on Firms and Workers: Causal Evidence from Quasi-Random Patent Allocation, (joint with Afroza Alam)
This paper provides novel causal evidence on how patent allowances affect firms and their employees based on quasi-random assignment of patent applications to examiners. Exploiting employer–employee records with newly linked German firm data and web-scraped patent documents, we show that patent-induced shocks reduce firm exit and substantially improve productivity. Wage responses appear to be moderate, resulting in estimate rent sharing parameters to be between 2 and 6 percent. Wage gains are observed across occupational tasks, particularly among manual workers, technicians, administrative staff, and managers. We present evidence that this result is driven by institutional features and the organizational structure of firms.