Embedded Files
Journal articles
Journal articles
The Macroeconomics of Age-Varying Epidemics (with M. Giagheddu), European Economic Review, 151, January 2023, 104346.
CEPR working paper (2020) | VoxEU articleThe Macroeconomics of Age-Varying Epidemics (with M. Giagheddu), European Economic Review, 151, January 2023, 104346.
Demographics and the Natural Real Interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 132, November 2021, 104209.
Earlier versions: Bank of Italy Working Papers, No 1306 / November 2020 | ECB Working Paper Series, No 2258 / March 2019Demographics and the Natural Real Interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 132, November 2021, 104209.
Bringing Money Back to the Real Economy: Room for a TARGET3 (with Franco Bruni), Rivista di Politica Economica, IV – VI 2015.
Earlier version - 4th Best Policy Study/Report Produced by a Think Tank (2012-2013)Bringing Money Back to the Real Economy: Room for a TARGET3 (with Franco Bruni), Rivista di Politica Economica, IV – VI 2015.
Working Papers
Working Papers
Population Aging, Relative Prices and Capital Flows across the Globe, Bank of Italy Working Papers, No 1333 / April 2021.
SUERF Policy BriefPopulation Aging, Relative Prices and Capital Flows across the Globe, Bank of Italy Working Papers, No 1333 / April 2021.
Demographics and Inflation in the Euro Area: a Two-Sector New-Keynesian Perspective, (with C. Nickel and E. Liz). ECB Working Paper Series, No 2382 / March 2020.
Demographics and Inflation in the Euro Area: a Two-Sector New-Keynesian Perspective, (with C. Nickel and E. Liz). ECB Working Paper Series, No 2382 / March 2020.
Contributions in Occasional Papers
Contributions in Occasional Papers
Macroeconomic and environmental effects of portfolio decabronization strategies , Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No. 874, October 2024.
Macroeconomic and environmental effects of portfolio decabronization strategies , Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No. 874, October 2024.
Approaching the terminal rate and the way forward: a model-based analysis, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No. 791, July 2023.
Approaching the terminal rate and the way forward: a model-based analysis, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, No. 791, July 2023.
On the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area, Bank of Italy Occassional Papers, No. 712, September 2022.
On the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area, Bank of Italy Occassional Papers, No. 712, September 2022.
Employment and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No. 275, September 2021.
Employment and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No. 275, September 2021.
Covid-19 and Economic Analysis: a Review of the Debate, Issue 1, 2, 3 with G. Caracciolo, F. Cingano, V. Ercolani, G. Ferrero, F. Hassan, and P. Tommasino, March-April 2020.
Covid-19 and Economic Analysis: a Review of the Debate, Issue 1, 2, 3 with G. Caracciolo, F. Cingano, V. Ercolani, G. Ferrero, F. Hassan, and P. Tommasino, March-April 2020.
Work in progress
Work in progress
An estimated HANK model for the euro area.
An estimated HANK model for the euro area.
Work on hold
Work on hold
A new stylized fact of structural change is documented: in a sample of 11 European economies the hourly wage of the services sector relative to the goods sector has constantly decreased over time in the period 1970-2007. Calibrating a two sector model with high and low skilled workers it is shown that the driver of such a structural change is a "skill-biased technical change" which leads the relative skill-intensity in the goods sector to increase over time. This prediction of the model finds support in the data once the workers' type of skill is identified according to the level of educational attainment. The new stylized fact holds also for the United States and is reinforced once industries are classified into tradable and nontradable sectors, while the sectoral skill-bias differences are corroborated by measures of job computerization probability.
What is the effect on the real interest rate of a marginal increase in the number of people in each age-group of a demographic distribution? The answer comes for the United States: empirically by estimating the reduced-form effect, theoretically by calibrating a standard closed-economy general-equilibrium overlapping-generation model analysed in a stationary equilibrium. It is found that the model with no insurance against mortality risk mimics certain features found empirically: marginal increases of the number of workers have in the early life-periods a positive effect on the real interest rate; then, approximately since 20 years before retirement, their effect is negative; marginal increases in the number of retirees have a weaker negative effect, the weaker the further to the right of the demographic distribution the marginal increase occurs. When the model is changed assuming that individuals do not discount their survival probabilities maximizing their consumption utility, the shape of the theoretical effect resembles much closer the empirical one. When the model is used assuming that individuals are perfectly insured against mortality risk ("perfect annuity markets"), the theoretical effect is off the track established empirically.
The findings in this report derive from the systematic split of industries into either tradable (T) or nontradable (N) sectors in advanced economies. They are meant to lay the basis for a theory that is apt to account for structural change in absence of wage equalization across sectors, possibly for an open economy, or for an empirical work that finds the determinants of the following variables whose positive growth is found to be constant over time (period 1970-2015): (1) relative price of N-goods; (2) relative labor productivity in the T-sector; (3) relative hours worked in the N-sector; (4) final consumption expenditure share on N-goods; (5) relative hourly wage in the T-sector. Using some analytical frameworks it is argued that to account for the growth of these variables one needs to consider how technological change biased toward the T-sector creates displaced workers there in presence of imperfect mobility of labor between sectors. There is evidence that the way this technology operates might account also for the following developments over time: (a) the decrease of the sectoral labor shares of income, especially in the T-sector; (b) the increase of the relative skill intensity of the T-sector. Finally, by linking the 702 OES occupations with 88 NAICS industries I find that the probability of an occupation being computerized is persistently higher in the T-sector relative to the N-sector since 2003 for the US.
Deciphering the Forward Guidance Puzzle: Imperfect Credibility in a New Keynesian Model (with Jakob Almerud and Magnus Åhl).
We introduce forward guidance through anticipated monetary policy shocks in a simple New-Keynesian model. The agents in the model regard the announced shocks as fully credible, which we find unrealistic. Based on empirical evidence, we introduce a credibility parameter which decreases exponentially with the number of periods into the future the announcement concerns. We show that this dampens the otherwise unreasonably large effects of forward guidance.Deciphering the Forward Guidance Puzzle: Imperfect Credibility in a New Keynesian Model (with Jakob Almerud and Magnus Åhl).
Theoretical note; empirical evidence (by Magnus Åhl).
We find that structural transformation in advanced economies - the process of systematic reallocation of resources from the manufacturing sector to the services sector - goes hand in hand with an increasing propensity to supply labor in nontradable industries. We link this labor supply propensity to the likelihood of finding political support for policies aiming at trade openness and cosmopolitanism. We conclude that there might be structural forces underlying economic development giving fertile ground for a progressive political retrenchment, favoring populist movements.
Other published work
Other published work
L'invecchiamento globale e la permanenza di tre tendenze secolari, Rivista di Politica Economica, N. 2-2021, pp. 109-130.
L'invecchiamento globale e la permanenza di tre tendenze secolari, Rivista di Politica Economica, N. 2-2021, pp. 109-130.
La monnaie fiscale et le soutien de l’Euro(pe). Pour une réforme de l’architecture monétaire européenne. Revue Française de Socio-Économie, 22, 195-204, 2019/1 (with Massimo Amato). https://doi.org/10.3917/rfse.022.0195
La monnaie fiscale et le soutien de l’Euro(pe). Pour une réforme de l’architecture monétaire européenne. Revue Française de Socio-Économie, 22, 195-204, 2019/1 (with Massimo Amato). https://doi.org/10.3917/rfse.022.0195
Il debito dell’Europa con se stessa. Analisi e riforma della governance europea di fronte alla crisi (with Luca Fantacci) Costituzionalismo.it, July 2013.
In the newsThe Eurozone crisis has prompted manifold countermeasures that have managed to avoid collapse, but not to generate recovery. In this article we review major actions undertaken, on one hand to contrast the effects of the crisis mostly through expansionary monetary policies, and on the other hand to cure the presumed causes particularly through more rigid fiscal discipline. We then argue that the low effectiveness of such remedies depends on a bad diagnosis, which imputes the crisis to fragile public finances in the so-called peripheral countries, without acknowledging the root of the problem lying in the external imbalances that divide Europe between creditors and debtors. Finally, we propose to endow the ECB (on the basis of the Target2 system) a new financial facility (Target3), modelled on Keynes’s Clearing Union, and to be managed by the ECB, with the task of reabsorbing those imbalances and of financing the real economy.Il debito dell’Europa con se stessa. Analisi e riforma della governance europea di fronte alla crisi (with Luca Fantacci) Costituzionalismo.it, July 2013.
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