WORKING PAPERS
WORKING PAPERS
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Summary
Closing the infrastructure gap in rural education is foundational to Africa’s inclusive growth. This research provides policy-relevant insights for AU member states seeking sustainable, scalable, and equitable investment models. This paper conducts a systematic review of literature and empirical data to explore whether alternative financing models, such as PPPs and concessional lending, can effectively reduce the rural education infrastructure deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2025) 'What policy-relevant evidence exists to support the use of alternative financing models in bridging Sub-Saharan Africa’s rural education infrastructure gap relative to inaction or stagnant investment?' (April 29, 2025)
Summary
This working paper, Regime-Switching Tariffs and Inflation Effects: Evidence from Cross-Country Asset Prices, by Alfred Anate Bodurin Mayaki, explores how coordinated global trade shocks—such as the U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs—impact macroeconomic indicators through asset price channels. Using a fixed effects panel regression with a Markov-switching structure across data from major financial markets between 2015 and 2025, the study identifies significant differences in macroeconomic behavior under high- and low-tariff regimes. The results show that inflation expectations have a stronger influence on GDP growth during high-tariff periods, while capital investment becomes a more prominent driver of output. Asset prices, in turn, serve as early indicators of these macroeconomic adjustments. The SSRN paper concludes that fiscal and monetary authorities must coordinate closely in response to such trade shocks, incorporating trade-driven inflation dynamics into their policy frameworks to safeguard economic stability.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2025) 'Regime-Switching Tariffs and Inflation Effects: Evidence from Cross-Country Asset Prices' (April 05, 2025)
Summary
This working paper investigates how bilateral trade deficits between the UK and US affect long-term macroeconomic outcomes such as productivity and capital expenditure. Inspired by the historical context of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the paper extends the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model to include trade flows and develops a two-stage retaliatory tariff framework as a potential corrective strategy.
The study constructs a 25-year synthetic panel dataset (2000–2025) capturing trade, labour, capital, and productivity indicators, and uses a log-log two-way fixed effects regression model to simulate economic responses to trade policy shocks. The key innovation lies in integrating trade asymmetries into a structural macroeconomic model, showing how retaliatory tariffs—phased across low- and high-value goods—can restore dynamic equilibrium under certain conditions.
Findings suggest that while tariffs can disrupt capital investment and labour markets in the short run, economies may exhibit resilience through adaptive shifts in production and resource allocation. The paper offers empirical insights for UK policymakers evaluating trade retaliation strategies, emphasizing the importance of timing, sector targeting, and stability considerations in international trade negotiations.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2025) 'Pareto-Optimal Growth: Evidence from UK-US Simulated Trade, Productivity and Capital Expenditure' (April 02, 2025)
Summary
Large conglomerate firms dominate many markets and often avoid direct price competition with each other. This behavior—called forbearance—can look like tacit collusion, where firms quietly agree not to undercut each other, even though competition laws require that new entrants must be allowed to participate freely. This creates a social dilemma: what's best for each firm individually (to compete aggressively) may make the overall market worse. The paper investigates how strategic restraint—when done right—can result in stable and efficient market outcomes, especially under uncertainty or incomplete information.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2025) 'Pareto-Nash Allocations under Incomplete Information: A Model of Stable Optima' - Royal Economic Society (March 28, 2025)
Summary
This paper introduces a dynamic signalling framework in which agents navigate cooperation under incomplete information and wage rigidity. Specifically, it develops a three-period model to formalize how economic agents can commit to Pareto-optimal Nash reversion strategies following a temporary breakdown in cooperation. The setting reflects environments with sticky efficiency wages and uncertain productivity shocks.
The model addresses a persistent challenge in labour and organizational economics: how cooperative equilibria can be sustained when wages are slow to adjust and informational asymmetries distort expectations. Classic repeated-game approaches often assume infinite horizons or full observability; this paper departs from those assumptions by modeling finite-period cooperation with incomplete information and forward-looking signalling incentives.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A.B. (2024) 'Pareto-Nash Reversion Strategies: Three Period Dynamic Co-operative Signalling with Sticky Efficiency Wages' (June 24, 2024)
Summary
This paper explores how the OSKAR coaching framework and forward-oriented solution approaches, such as CBT and REBT, can be integrated into community rehabilitation programs like Sporting Recovery. It highlights links between physical exercise, mental health recovery, and HR practices, focusing on presenteeism, employee assistance programs, and wellbeing. Drawing on the transtheoretical model, it advocates “graded activity” as a bridge between therapy and coaching. The author proposes improved consultative structures, progress tracking, and tailored interventions to sustain engagement. The study positions employees as healthcare consumers, urging HR to adopt action-oriented, evidence-based methods for enhancing workplace health and productivity
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2024) 'An HR Perspective on the OSKAR Coaching Framework and the Forward-Oriented Solution Approach: The Example of CBT and Sporting Recovery Activity Sessions' (May 30, 2024)
Summary
This paper critically evaluates the evolution of rules-based approaches to monetary policy and macroprudential supervision between 1993 and 2023. It examines the limitations of prescriptive frameworks, such as the Taylor Rule, in managing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability in both the United States and the United Kingdom. By integrating insights from the ISSB’s disclosure and governance frameworks, the study highlights the growing need for risk-based approaches to monetary policy, particularly in light of inflationary shocks and increasing systemic uncertainty. The paper argues that strict adherence to rules-based policies often constrains flexibility and overlooks macroeconomic risks, advocating instead for hybrid, risk-aware strategies that enhance resilience in dynamic economic environments. Key areas for future research include exploring Pareto-Nash dynamics and efficiency wage models in developing robust, risk-informed policy frameworks.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2023) 'A Critical Evaluation of Rules-Based Approaches - From Macrostability to Macroprudential Supervision: 1993-2023' (July 15, 2023)
Summary
My forthcoming paper is something I wrote to reflect on two important aspects of my time as a researcher: Firstly, my experience as an intern 10 years ago, in leiu of the recent turmoil affecting Chinese Real Estate markets, the paper discusses the importance of asymmetric dependence in risk asset returns when investors seeking global diversified alpha place equity in stock markets that trade in overseas territories. Secondly, to commemorate the work of Prof. Harry Markowitz who died at the age of 95 (1927-2023) and is widely considered by many to be the father of portfolio theory, I explain the Capital Asset Pricing Method (CAPM) and its sister model, the Regime-Switching CAPM.
Cited Document:
Mayaki, A. A. B. (2023) 'Notes on: The Equity Market Model and CAPM with Markov-Switching Portfolios' (July 07, 2023)
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