Layer 4: Formulation & Evaluation

7. Ideas & Options  

• Appreciative Inquiry (AI):

1. Define the topic or focus of inquiry.

2. Discover the strengths and best practices of the system.

3. Dream about the desired future state.

4. Design the processes and structures to achieve the dream.

5. Deliver or implement the design.

• Strategic Synectics:

1. Define the problem or challenge.

2. Use analogies and metaphors to generate creative ideas.

3. Force fit the analogies to the problem.

4. Evaluate and select the most promising ideas.

• Effectuation Principles:

1. Start with available means (who you are, what you know, whom you know).

2. Set affordable loss (determine what you are willing to lose).

3. Leverage contingencies (embrace surprises and turn them into opportunities).

4. Form partnerships (collaborate with stakeholders).

5. Control versus predict (focus on activities within your control).

• TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving):

1. Define the problem in terms of contradictions.

2. Use the contradiction matrix and inventive principles to generate solutions.

3. Evaluate and refine the solutions.

4. Apply the solutions to the problem.

• Lateral Thinking Provocations:

1. Generate a provocative statement or idea.

2. Use techniques like random entry, analogy, or reversal to stimulate thinking.

3. Explore the implications of the provocation.

4. Generate new ideas or solutions.

• DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Implement, Control):

1. Define the problem or opportunity.

2. Measure the current performance.

3. Analyze the causes of the problem.

4. Implement solutions to address the root causes.

5. Control (Monitor) the solutions to ensure they are e

8. Appraisal & Prioritization

• MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis):

  1. Define the decision problem and objectives.

  2. Identify the relevant criteria for evaluating alternatives.

  3. Weight the criteria according to their importance.

  4. Evaluate each alternative against the criteria.

  5. Combine the weighted evaluations to rank the alternatives.

  6. Select the best alternative based on the analysis.

• Decision Trees:

  1. Identify the possible decisions and outcomes in a situation.

  2. Map the decisions and outcomes in a tree-like structure.

  3. Assign probabilities to the uncertain outcomes.

  4. Estimate the value or payoff of each outcome.

  5. Calculate the expected value of each decision.

  6. Choose the decision with the highest expected value.

• AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process):

  1. Structure the decision problem into a hierarchy of goals, criteria, and alternatives.

  2. Perform pairwise comparisons to determine the relative importance of the elements in the hierarchy.

  3. Synthesize the comparisons to derive weights for the elements.

  4. Evaluate the alternatives based on the criteria.

  5. Rank the alternatives based on their overall scores.

• Risk Matrices:

  1. Identify potential risks.

  2. Assess the likelihood and impact of each risk.

  3. Plot the risks on a matrix based on their likelihood and impact.

  4. Prioritize risks for mitigation.

  5. Develop and implement risk response strategies.

• Red Teaming:

  1. Assemble a team to challenge assumptions and plans.

  2. Simulate potential threats or attacks.

  3. Identify vulnerabilities and weaknesses.

  4. Develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerabilities.

  5. Improve the plans based on the red team's findings.

• Decision Architecture:

  1. Analyze how decisions are currently made.

  2. Identify biases and inefficiencies in the decision-making process.

  3. Design the decision-making environment to promote better choices.

  4. Implement interventions such as defaults, framing, and feedback.

  5. Evaluate the impact of the interventions.

• Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs):

  1. Employ systematic methods to analyze information and make judgments.

  2. Techniques include:

     • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

     • Devil's Advocacy

     • Team A/Team B Analysis

     • Indicators and Warnings Analysis

  3. Enhance critical thinking and reduce bias.

• Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH):

  1. Identify all plausible hypotheses.

  2. List evidence relevant to each hypothesis.

  3. Analyze the consistency of the evidence with each hypothesis.

  4. Evaluate the relative likelihood of each hypothesis.

  5. Reject hypotheses that are inconsistent with the evidence.

  6. Select the most likely hypothesis.

• Motivated Reasoning Detection:

  1. Identify potential sources of bias in reasoning.

  2. Analyze arguments for evidence of motivated reasoning.

  3. Evaluate the influence of emotions and desires on conclusions.

  4. Apply techniques to mitigate the effects of motivated reasoning.

• Real Options Analysis:

  1. Identify strategic decisions that involve uncertainty.

  2. Frame the decisions as "options" to take future actions.

  3. Value the options using financial option pricing models.

  4. Evaluate the strategic value of flexibility.

  5. Make decisions based on the value of the real options.