Variety’s Oscar predictions highlight a competitive awards season led by prestige studio films, acclaimed international entries, and strong performances from established and rising talent. Their picks reflect industry momentum, critical reception, and early awards-season buzz.
All the winner predictions on this page are as of January 22, 2026, as predicted by Variety. The lists below include their nominee picks

Category: Best Picture

The highest honor of the Oscars, Best Picture is awarded to the film that represents outstanding achievement in all aspects of filmmaking, including storytelling, acting, directing, and technical execution. It’s the award that celebrates the overall excellence of a film.

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners
(Predicted Winner)

Train Dreams

Category: Best Director

This award honors the filmmaker who demonstrates the most skill, vision, and creativity in guiding the production of a film. The director’s work shapes the performances, visual style, pacing, and overall storytelling of the movie.

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Guillermo Del Toro for Frankenstein

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

Category: Best Actor

Given to the male performer who delivers the most compelling and memorable lead performance in a film. Judges consider range, emotional depth, and the actor’s ability to bring a character to life convincingly.

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon
(Predicted Winner)

Category: Best Actress

Awarded to the female performer who delivers the most outstanding lead performance. This category recognizes exceptional talent, character portrayal, and the ability to engage audiences throughout the film.

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
(Predicted Winner)

Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value

Emma Stone for Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

Honors a male performer in a secondary or supporting role who contributes significantly to the film. These performances often enhance the story or lead characters and can be scene-stealing.

Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein

Paul Mescal for Hamnet

Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value
(Predicted Winner)

Best Supporting Actress

This award recognizes a female performer in a supporting role who adds depth, emotion, or humor to a film. Strong supporting roles often leave a lasting impact despite less screen time.

Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan for Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners

Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)

While the final nominations may still hold surprises, Variety’s predictions offer a strong snapshot of where the race currently stands. As campaigns evolve, these frontrunners are likely to remain central to the 2026 Oscar conversation.

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