Gold Derby’s predictions aggregate insights from awards experts, industry insiders, and historical trends. Their forecast emphasizes films with broad category strength and consistent recognition across guilds and precursor awards.
All the winner predictions on this page are as of January 22, 2026, as per the combined ranking by Gold Derby. The lists below include their nominee picks.
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Category: Best Picture
Category: Best Picture
The highest honor of the Oscars, Best Picture is awarded to the film that represents outstanding achievement in all aspects of filmmaking, including storytelling, acting, directing, and technical execution. It’s the award that celebrates the overall excellence of a film.
One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)
Sinners
Hamnet
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
Wicked: For Good
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Train Dreams
Category: Best Director
Category: Best Director
This award honors the filmmaker who demonstrates the most skill, vision, and creativity in guiding the production of a film. The director’s work shapes the performances, visual style, pacing, and overall storytelling of the movie.
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)
Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Chloé Zhao for Hamnet
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value
Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident
Category: Best Actor
Category: Best Actor
Given to the male performer who delivers the most compelling and memorable lead performance in a film. Judges consider range, emotional depth, and the actor’s ability to bring a character to life convincingly.
Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
(Predicted Winner)
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon
Category: Best Actress
Category: Best Actress
Awarded to the female performer who delivers the most outstanding lead performance. This category recognizes exceptional talent, character portrayal, and the ability to engage audiences throughout the film.
Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
(Predicted Winner)
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value
Emma Stone for Bugonia
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Honors a male performer in a secondary or supporting role who contributes significantly to the film. These performances often enhance the story or lead characters and can be scene-stealing.
Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal for Hamnet
Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value
(Predicted Winner)
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress
This award recognizes a female performer in a supporting role who adds depth, emotion, or humor to a film. Strong supporting roles often leave a lasting impact despite less screen time.
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)
Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
Amy Madigan for Weapons
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good
Gold Derby’s data-driven approach suggests which films are positioned to dominate on nomination morning. As always, shifting momentum and late-breaking support could reshape the final outcome.
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