The Hollywood Reporter’s predictions are informed by insider access, guild results, and campaign strategy. Their outlook highlights films with sustained momentum and strong backing within the industry.
All the winner predictions on this page are as of January 23, 2026, as predicted by The Hollywood Reporter. The lists below include their nominee picks.

Category: Best Picture

The highest honor of the Oscars, Best Picture is awarded to the film that represents outstanding achievement in all aspects of filmmaking, including storytelling, acting, directing, and technical execution. It’s the award that celebrates the overall excellence of a film.

One Battle After Another

Sinners
(Predicted Winner)

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Frankenstein

Sentimental Value

Train Dreams

Bugonia

The Secret Agent

Sirat

Category: Best Director

This award honors the filmmaker who demonstrates the most skill, vision, and creativity in guiding the production of a film. The director’s work shapes the performances, visual style, pacing, and overall storytelling of the movie.

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein

Category: Best Actor

Given to the male performer who delivers the most compelling and memorable lead performance in a film. Judges consider range, emotional depth, and the actor’s ability to bring a character to life convincingly.

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
(Predicted Winner)

Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another

Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

Jesse Plemons for Bugonia

Category: Best Actress

Awarded to the female performer who delivers the most outstanding lead performance. This category recognizes exceptional talent, character portrayal, and the ability to engage audiences throughout the film.

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
(Predicted Winner)

Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value

Emma Stone for Bugonia

Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Supporting Actor

Honors a male performer in a secondary or supporting role who contributes significantly to the film. These performances often enhance the story or lead characters and can be scene-stealing.

Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value
(Predicted Winner)

Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein

Paul Mescal for Hamnet

Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another

Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

This award recognizes a female performer in a supporting role who adds depth, emotion, or humor to a film. Strong supporting roles often leave a lasting impact despite less screen time.

Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
(Predicted Winner)

Amy Madigan for Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good

As one of the most industry-focused forecasts, these predictions offer insight into how Oscar voters may ultimately decide. While long shots remain in play, these contenders represent the current awards-season power players.

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