Research

Journal Publications

Vertical integration, interoperability, and subsidies in electric vehicle charging markets (with D'Alfonso, T., & Börjesson, M.) Economics of Transportation (2026), 46, 100459.
Early consumer response to electric buses in urban areas: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment (with , Feng, S., D’alfonso, T., & Daziano, R.) Energy Economics (2026), 109392.
Investments in local public transport: A systematic literature review on evaluation methods with a focus on the role of uncertainty (with De Santis, D., & Matteucci, G.) Transport Economics and Management (2025), 3, 441-459.
A hybrid cost model for light and heavy metro services (with Avenali, A., De Santis, D., D'Alfonso, T., & Matteucci, G.) Transport Economics and Management (2025), 3, 366-378.
Predicting costs of local public bus transport services through machine learning methods (with Amicosante, A., Avenali, A., D’Alfonso, T., Manno, A., & Matteucci, G) Expert Systems with Applications (2025), 260, 125396.
Bus fleet decarbonization under macroeconomic and technological uncertainties: A real options approach to support decision-making (with Avenali, A., De Santis, D., & Matteucci, G.) Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review (2024), 190, 103690.
Introducing electric buses in urban areas: Effects on welfare, pricing, frequency, and public subsidies (with Börjesson, M., & D'Alfonso, T.) Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice (2024), 185, 104103.
Factors influencing the adoption of zero-emission buses: A review-based framework (with Avenali, A., Catalano, G., & Matteucci, G.) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2024), 197, 114388.
Assessing cost-effectiveness of alternative bus technologies: Evidence from US transit agencies (with Avenali, A., Catalano, G., & Matteucci, G.) Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (2023), 117, 103648.

Work-in-progress

A decision-support framework for selecting new energy bus technologies: Assessing battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell buses (with Sadrani, M., & Tirachini, A.)

Abstract: New energy bus (NEB) technologies, including battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (FCBs), offer pathways to support decarbonisation strategies in public transport. Selecting the most suitable technology represents a multi-dimensional decision problem encompassing trade-offs across different criteria. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the factors influencing the choice of BEBs or FCBs, grouped into technological, economic, managerial, social, environmental, and institutional categories. We address this NEB technology selection problem using a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making framework integrating the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and the Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution (MARCOS). Evaluation criteria are identified and refined through a structured expert interview process, and their weights are determined using BWM based on assessments from 34 international experts with diverse backgrounds. The MARCOS method is applied to evaluate and rank NEB alternatives, including BEBs, FCBs, and mixed fleet configurations. Results indicate that economic factors (e.g., vehicle, energy, and infrastructure costs) are the most influential, followed by institutional (e.g., political will and funding) and technological (e.g., driving range and energy system resilience) dimensions. BEBs are identified as the most suitable option for current urban systems, while FCBs remain competitive where operational flexibility is critical. Interestingly, a divergence is observed between academic and industry perspectives, with the former prioritising economic and environmental factors, whereas the latter prioritise institutional and technological factors. This is also reflected in the ranking of alternatives, with academics favouring BEBs and industry experts favouring FCBs, highlighting the importance of incorporating stakeholder perspectives into decision-making.

Vertical structure, investment coordination, and welfare in electrified urban bus services (with Avenali, A., Matteucci, G., & Reverberi, P.)

Abstract: This study examines how investment complementarities and asymmetric information shape the allocation of investment responsibilities across firms involved in regulated public services, focusing on the electrification of urban bus systems. Electrified bus services require significant investments in fleets, charging infrastructure, and depot upgrades, creating new coordination challenges among transport, fleet, and energy operators. We develop an analytical framework to analyse how alternative vertical structures – an integrated partnership an two separated configurations − affect quality investments and social welfare. The analysis highlights a trade-off between investment efficiency and the social costs of integration: while integration improves coordination, it may increase transaction costs and information rents. Among separated structures, assigning coordination to the transport operator yields higher welfare when quality improvements are highly valued, whereas the energy-operator centric structure performs better when upstream coordination costs for grid upgrades and charging infrastructure are significant. The results further show that higher investment levels do not necessarily translate into higher social welfare when investments fail to generate proportional user benefits. A model application based on the bus network in Rome (Italy) illustrates how the framework can inform regulatory decisions and highlights potential misalignments between public and private incentives to form integrated partnerships.

Public funding for bus system decarbonization accounting for technological uncertainty and depot infrastructure upgrades (with Avenali, A., De Santis, D., & Matteucci, G.)

Abstract: Existing public funding programs have been crucial in accelerating bus fleet decarbonization, yet their effectiveness and efficiency remain central policy questions. This study assesses the evolving cost effectiveness of battery electric buses (BEBs) through a novel Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model that explicitly incorporates infrastructure investments based on initial depot characteristics. Bus operators’ adoption decisions are modeled using a Real Options (RO) framework, capturing technological and market uncertainty through stochastic simulations. The model is applied to a U.S. representative urban bus service to assess the performance of current funding schemes and determine the optimal timing of BEB adoption. Results indicate that, in the absence of public support, BEB adoption remains slow and uncertain. Existing U.S. funding schemes, covering up to 85% of vehicle and infrastructure costs, drastically reduce initial expenditures and make immediate adoption the dominant choice. However, equivalent decarbonization speeds could be achieved with smaller funding. The optimal configuration corresponds to a ~65% funding on vehicle purchases and an infrastructure funding dependent on the initial depot conditions (from 4% for the best case, to 78% for the worst case), maintained for about 10 years. This structure ensures the fastest transition at minimal fiscal cost.

Unlocking modal shift towards rail freight transport: An expert-based analysis of institutional enablers (with De Micheli, P., & Nastasi, A.)

Abstract: Decarbonizing freight transport is a central challenge in achieving climate targets, with modal shift from road to rail recognized as a key strategy. While infrastructure and technological solutions are often emphasized, the role of public institutions remains less explored. This paper develops and applies a framework of 20 institutional enablers, grouped under seven evaluative dimensions, to examine how national governments can support freight modal shift. Using Italy as a case study, we combine expert elicitation with statistical validation and a Prioritization Index to assess each enabler’s potential impact and current level of implementation. The results validate the proposed framework, confirming expert consensus on the relevance of the identified institutional factors. The most impactful enablers concern infrastructure development and socio-economic conditions, particularly the capillarity of intermodal terminals, their operational efficiency, and regional economic development. However, a significant implementation gap remains, as several high-impact enablers are still underdeveloped in the Italian context. Conversely, environmental goals and rail regulation are perceived as relatively mature. The analysis of stakeholder perspectives highlights differing policy priorities among infrastructure managers, public authorities, and freight operators. The study provides practical insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for long-term, coordinated strategies and market-aligned incentives to accelerate modal shift.

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