Commercial Vehicles

Electrification of Heavy-Duty Trucks Outpaces Light-Duty Trucks. China's commercial vehicle sector encompasses both freight (light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty trucks) and buses (intra-city and intercity). From January to June 2025, the sales of NEVs amongst commercial vehicles reached 360,000 in China, accounting for approximately 23.6% of sales of all commercial vehicles (搜狐汽车, 2025). Some front-runners in the adoption of NEVs amongst the different commercial vehicle segments include light-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks, intra-city, and intercity buses. 

Over the last five years, the freight road transport sector has experienced a dramatic increase in electrification. The penetration of NEV sales in the freight sector increased from approximately 2% to 20% over the 5-year period from 2020 to 2025 (China's Auto Market Almanac). From January to September 2025, the penetration rate of NEVs amongst heavy-duty truck sales reached 29%, totaling approximately 138,000 trucks (第一商用车网, 2025). Similarly, the sales of NEV light-duty trucks from January to September 2025 totaled approximately 122,000, accounting for 27% of all light-duty trucks sales (第一商用车网, 2025). The penetration rate of NEV in the medium-duty trucks sector in China has not been significant; reaching about 5% in 2024 (China's Auto Market Almanac). The figures below will break down the penetration rates and sales of light-duty and heavy-duty trucks sales, respectively.  

Light-duty trucks are less than 6 tons; medium-duty trucks are between 6 and 15 tons; heavy-duty trucks are 14 tons and above. 

Electrification of Buses

There are distinct differences in NEV penetration rates between intra-city bus and inter-city bus, with intra-city bus leading the adoption of NEVs. Specifically, by the end of 2024, 81% of intra-city bus is NEVs, accounting for approximately 554,000 buses (中工网-工人日报, 2024). On the other hand, due to range concerns, the electrification rate of inter-city buses is behind that of intra-city bus. By the end of 2024, 6% of inter-city buses in China were NEVs (ICCT, 2025). 

Even though inter-city buses have a slower pace of electrification, the growth of inter-city bus electrification is picking up after China's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. From January to May 2024, about 4,300 NEV inter-city buses were sold, which represents an approximate 330% growth rate compared to the same period last year (电车汇, 2024). Given that the turnover period of buses in China is roughly 10 years, a significant growth in the sales of NEV buses will continue into 2025 and beyond (车研有声, 2025).  

BEV Technology Trends: Fast-charging vs. Battery swapping

Amongst heavy-duty battery electric vehicle trucks, there are two dominant technology trends: battery swapping and conventional battery electric trucks. Fast-charging has been rising dramatically over the past few years, from 38% in 2022 to 58% in 2024 of market share of the BEV technologies (方得谈车, 2025). Battery swapping technology has been gaining market shares  over the recent years, but the penetration rate has slowed since the rising uptake of the fast-charging technology. In 2025, approximately 63% of BEV trucks are conventional battery electric trucks which require overnight charging, while 37% of BEV trucks used battery swapping. However,  we expect that battery swapping will grow faster as CATL now leans heavily on battery swapping trucks. 

After observing how businesses in China are using battery swap technology and the operational benefits it can provide, we convened the California Battery Swap Truck Forum to examine whether a business case exists for applying heavy-duty truck battery swap technologies in the United States. We also explored whether U.S. logistics companies and infrastructure operators might be interested in pursuing a battery swap demonstration project in California. For more details, please see the California Battery Swap Truck Forum Report.