Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA PSL): "Understanding characteristics and drivers of tropical Pacific decadal variability"
Daeho Jin (NASA Goddard): "ENSO disrupts boreal winter CRE feedback"
Adam Sokol (Univ. of Washington): "Anvil clouds & climate sensitivity: new insights from convection-resolving models"
12:24:54 From Deirdre Des Jardins to Everyone:
Decomposing the system into warming and internal variability works as long as the perturbations to the system are not large. Do you have a sense of how much that assumption is continuing to hold?
12:26:20 From Matt Luongo (he/him) to Everyone:
Nice talk, Antonietta. When looking into the v’tbar hypothesis, what lag were you using that shows 0 lag? I would imagine coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves could transport a signal to the tropics from the near subtropics relatively quickly.
12:28:02 From Antonietta Capotondi to Everyone:
@ Deidra This is a good point. I do not know how accurate the assumption is. Global warming is intimately connected with “internal” variability and can modify it by, for example, upper-ocean stratification. It would be good to investigate the assumption in climate models Large Ensembles.
12:30:07 From Erik Vitands to Everyone:
@Antonietta Capotondi How does the Rossby wave model in this paper compare to the Goodman & Marshall model PDO setup? What is the further work you are contemplating in RW modeling?
12:31:29 From Antonietta Capotondi to Everyone:
@ Matt I computed a lag-correlation and found that the maximum value was at lag 0. It is true that coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves can be fast, but they do not seem to be able to alter the transport. Also a mechanism involving Kelvin waves would not explain decadal timescales. I’m not sure if I answered your question.
12:33:54 From Antonietta Capotondi to Everyone:
@ Erik. I’m not familiar with the model of Goodman and Marshall, but I think that it is very similar. A similar model has been used to North Pacific decadal variability and changes in the Kuroshio. Of course, the Rossby wave phase speed needs to be adjusted with latitude.
12:34:51 From Antonietta Capotondi to Everyone:
@ Erik. I would like to investigate similar processes, including RW dynamics in climate models. I think that would provide a good test of the models.
12:43:25 From Deirdre Des Jardins to Everyone:
Antonietta also would appreciate any thoughts you had on how to best characterize the TPDV period since 2013/2014 for analyses of California climate trends.) The state is updating their “Indicators of Climate Change in California” this year and I’ve been finding that using TPDV periods for looking at trends is helpful.
12:49:26 From Antonietta Capotondi to Everyone:
@ Deidre That is an interesting problem. Capotondi & Qiu (2023, J. Climate) also considers a period after 2014, and discusses the changes relative to the preceding period. That could be useful to your analysis. In the ocean, I find that warm conditions along the California coast have a large decadal signal.
13:03:44 From Eric DeWeaver to Everyone:
Do you think the thin cirrus has a large component from adiabatic cooling in the ascending phase of TTL gravity waves? I assume that would imply less sensitivity to warming-induced changes in convection.