Research
Publications
"Determinacy and E-Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound" (with Nigel McClung)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming [Link]
"Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters Help Predict the Shape of Recessions in Real Time?" (with James Morley)
Economics Letters, December 2023, Volume 233 [Link (open access)]
"Understanding Trend Inflation through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors" (with Luis Uzeda and Benjamin Wong)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, August 2023, Volume 38, Issue 5 [Link] [Code (Matlab)] [VoxEU]
"Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession?" (with James Morley)
Review of Economics and Statistics, March 2022, Volume 104, Issue 2 [Link (open access)]
"The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy" (with Denny Lie)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2020, Volume 52, Issue 8 [Link] [WP version]
"Average Inflation Targeting and Interest-Rate Smoothing" (with Denny Lie)
Economics Letters, April 2020, Volume 189 [Link] [WP version]
"The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Forecasting the Yield Curve" (with Kyu Ho Kang)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 2020, Volume 111 [Link] [Online appendix] [WP version]
"Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples" (with Luiggi Donayre and James Morley)
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, February 2018, Volume 22, Issue 1 [Link (open access)] [Code] (Awarded Best Paper in 2018 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics)
"Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?" (with Chang-Jin Kim)
Review of Economics and Statistics, December 2016, Volume 98, Issue 5 [Link] [WP Version] [Code]
"Structural Changes in Inflation Dynamics: Multiple Breaks at Different Dates for Different Parameters"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, June 2016, Volume 20, Issue 3 (lead article) [Link] [WP Version] [Code (GAUSS)]
"Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks" (with James Morley)
Quantitative Economics, July 2015, Volume 6, Issue 2 [Link (open access)] [Code (GAUSS)] [Code [R]] [Code (Eviews in conjunction with Gauss)]
Working Papers
"Changes in the Inflation Target and the Comovement between Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate" (with Denny Lie) [Link]
"Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: What Should a Central Bank Target?" (with Denny Lie)
"Estimating the Output Gap Using Survey Expectations"
Work in Progress
"Non-Performing Loans and Inflation" (with Tyson Goddard)