My research interests are international economics, EU policy, economic history and data science. I am particularly interested in the long-term study of trade, the history of international trade and German economic history.
Below are the projects I have worked on academically.
Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Elections in the First Globalisation
Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Elections in the First Globalisation
with Richard Bräuer and Felix Kersting
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalisation (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today’s data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
IWH-CompNet discussion paper 4/2021
in Wirtschaft im Wandel 28(1), 10-13 (Non-technical, in German)
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalisation (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today’s data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
IWH-CompNet discussion paper 4/2021
in Wirtschaft im Wandel 28(1), 10-13 (Non-technical, in German)
The Gains from Import Variety in Two Globalisations: Evidence from Germany
The Gains from Import Variety in Two Globalisations: Evidence from Germany
What are the gains from trade today compared to those in the globalisation a hundred years ago? To answer this question I rely on Krugman’s (1980) idea that consumers value growing import variety, and very granular German product-level data from the first globalisation (ahead of World War I), and today. First, I obtain structural estimates of the elasticity of substitution at the product-level for both globalisation episodes. I find substantial heterogeneity in terms of how elastic demand over goods and their varieties is, especially when compared over the longer run. The elasticity of substitution varies over time, space and product. The median elasticity is 3.8 in the first globalisation, but only 2.5 in the second. This suggests that demand was more elastic in the first globalisation. Second, I use these estimated elasticities and calculate the consumer gains from growing import variety ahead of World War I and for today. The welfare calculations suggest that the gains from trade in the first globalisation are twice as high as today. Welfare is much lower—falling down to a fifth of the benchmark—when using elasticities that do not originate in the period welfare is calculated for. Simply taking one single elasticity or a set of ahistorical elasticities can be easily misleading because gains from international trade as well as the effects of changes in trade costs may be wrongly captured.
EHES working paper no. 120Non-technical blog entry
EHES working paper no. 120Non-technical blog entry
What is a Product Anyway? Applying the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) to Historical Data
What is a Product Anyway? Applying the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) to Historical Data
with Christoph Altmeppen
We study the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Thousands of studies rely on disaggregated trade data, but the quality of these studies’ unit of analysis—bins of goods categories arranged in certain hierarchies—is rarely studied. It is often unclear what a product or a variety really is. Meanwhile, increasingly granular trade data from before the 1950s are lifted from the archives that require standardisation. The SITC provides a framework for that. We make four contributions: First, we work out the specificities of each SITC revision, analyse how revisions are related, and provide improved correspondence tables between all revisions. We show that revision choice can affect the analysis of historical trade data. Second, we propose basic rules for translating historical, unstandardised trade statistics to the SITC. Third, we translate German product-level trade data from the first globalisation to both SITC revisions 2 and 4 in order to find out which revision may be more applicable to historical data. Fourth, we then develop metrics to quantitatively assess our translation exercise. We argue that despite inevitable imperfections, applying the SITC yields useful results, even on a very disaggregated level.
in Historical Methods (2021) 54(2), 65-79
DOWNLOAD ARTICLEDOWNLOAD SITC CORRESPONDENCE TABLES
We study the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Thousands of studies rely on disaggregated trade data, but the quality of these studies’ unit of analysis—bins of goods categories arranged in certain hierarchies—is rarely studied. It is often unclear what a product or a variety really is. Meanwhile, increasingly granular trade data from before the 1950s are lifted from the archives that require standardisation. The SITC provides a framework for that. We make four contributions: First, we work out the specificities of each SITC revision, analyse how revisions are related, and provide improved correspondence tables between all revisions. We show that revision choice can affect the analysis of historical trade data. Second, we propose basic rules for translating historical, unstandardised trade statistics to the SITC. Third, we translate German product-level trade data from the first globalisation to both SITC revisions 2 and 4 in order to find out which revision may be more applicable to historical data. Fourth, we then develop metrics to quantitatively assess our translation exercise. We argue that despite inevitable imperfections, applying the SITC yields useful results, even on a very disaggregated level.
in Historical Methods (2021) 54(2), 65-79
DOWNLOAD ARTICLEDOWNLOAD SITC CORRESPONDENCE TABLES
Grenzen und Märkte
Grenzen und Märkte
with Sebastian Teupe
Moderne Märkte sind ohne „Grenzen“ nicht verständlich. Sie definieren sich über räumliche und zeitliche Verortungen, anhand einer Vielzahl von Abgrenzungen wie der einer Produktdefinition oder unterschiedliche kulturelle Praxen. Wir zeigen zunächst neun Typen von Marktgrenzen auf, um hervorzuheben, dass Marktgrenzen vielfältig, sozial konstruiert und wandelbar sind. Danach diskutieren wir wirtschaftshistorische Forschung, die sich wirtschaftswissenschaftlich-quantitativer Methoden bedient und so ermöglicht, die Grenzen von Märkten anhand sog. Border Effects unter bestimmten Annahmen messbar zu machen. Solche Messergebnisse müssen jedoch durch historisch-wirtschaftssoziologische Forschung darüber, wo ein Markt beginnt und endet und worum Wettbewerb stattfindet, erweitert werden. Aus der Kombination quantitativer und qualitativer wirtschaftshistorischer Forschung ergibt sich Konvergenz-potenzial zwischen den Border Studies und den Wirtschafts-wissenschaften.
chapter in "Handbuch Grenzforschung", edited by: Dominik Gerst, Maria Klessmann, Hannes Krämer (2020), Baden-Baden: Nomos.
DOWNLOAD CHAPTER
Moderne Märkte sind ohne „Grenzen“ nicht verständlich. Sie definieren sich über räumliche und zeitliche Verortungen, anhand einer Vielzahl von Abgrenzungen wie der einer Produktdefinition oder unterschiedliche kulturelle Praxen. Wir zeigen zunächst neun Typen von Marktgrenzen auf, um hervorzuheben, dass Marktgrenzen vielfältig, sozial konstruiert und wandelbar sind. Danach diskutieren wir wirtschaftshistorische Forschung, die sich wirtschaftswissenschaftlich-quantitativer Methoden bedient und so ermöglicht, die Grenzen von Märkten anhand sog. Border Effects unter bestimmten Annahmen messbar zu machen. Solche Messergebnisse müssen jedoch durch historisch-wirtschaftssoziologische Forschung darüber, wo ein Markt beginnt und endet und worum Wettbewerb stattfindet, erweitert werden. Aus der Kombination quantitativer und qualitativer wirtschaftshistorischer Forschung ergibt sich Konvergenz-potenzial zwischen den Border Studies und den Wirtschafts-wissenschaften.
chapter in "Handbuch Grenzforschung", edited by: Dominik Gerst, Maria Klessmann, Hannes Krämer (2020), Baden-Baden: Nomos.
DOWNLOAD CHAPTER
German Export Survival in the First Globalisation
German Export Survival in the First Globalisation
Currently in fundamental revision, joint with J. Timini
How were trade relations structured in the first globalisation? Previous literature has highlighted the strong activity at the extensive margin during the first globalisation, i.e. that there was substantial entry and exit. However, so far little is known about what happens between market entry and exit. Traditional narratives of the first globalisation relying on the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowments or the gravity model are mute about these features of the data. In this paper I study the survival margin of international trade and wonder how long trade relationships lasted and what factors mattered for the duration of exports. Using product-level export data from 1889 to 1913, I find that the first years of an export were the most hazardous. The median length of an export spell was 2 years, only about 60 percent survived the first year, and a mere third of exports lasted longer than 3 years. However, once exporters survived the first two years they face less hazard from year to year. I take Rauch and Watson’s (2003) search cost model of trade relationships and derive hypotheses that I test in order shed light on the duration of Germany’s exports. Key to this model is that a fraction of exports serve to learn about market conditions. I quantify this learning, and my findings suggest that search costs as well as reliability turn out to have been important for export survival, and so did prior export experience. In other words, learning to export was a salient feature of Germany’s experience in the first globalisation.
CEH Discussion Paper no. 04
How were trade relations structured in the first globalisation? Previous literature has highlighted the strong activity at the extensive margin during the first globalisation, i.e. that there was substantial entry and exit. However, so far little is known about what happens between market entry and exit. Traditional narratives of the first globalisation relying on the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowments or the gravity model are mute about these features of the data. In this paper I study the survival margin of international trade and wonder how long trade relationships lasted and what factors mattered for the duration of exports. Using product-level export data from 1889 to 1913, I find that the first years of an export were the most hazardous. The median length of an export spell was 2 years, only about 60 percent survived the first year, and a mere third of exports lasted longer than 3 years. However, once exporters survived the first two years they face less hazard from year to year. I take Rauch and Watson’s (2003) search cost model of trade relationships and derive hypotheses that I test in order shed light on the duration of Germany’s exports. Key to this model is that a fraction of exports serve to learn about market conditions. I quantify this learning, and my findings suggest that search costs as well as reliability turn out to have been important for export survival, and so did prior export experience. In other words, learning to export was a salient feature of Germany’s experience in the first globalisation.
CEH Discussion Paper no. 04
The Panopticon of Germany's Foreign Trade, 1880-1913. New facts on the First Globalization
The Panopticon of Germany's Foreign Trade, 1880-1913. New facts on the First Globalization
with Nikolaus Wolf
Between 1871 and 1914 Germany became the second largest exporter in the world, just behind the UK. In this paper, we present and analyze the panopticon of Germany's foreign trade expansion before the First World War. Our new data covers historical trade data in terms of imports and exports of all traded products, all trade partners and both quantities and values of trade, at annual frequency for the years 1880 to 1913. To allow for comparisons over time and in the cross-section, historical product categories are re-classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). This granular data reveals three new insights. First, nearly all trade growth before 1914 took place along the extensive margin, in line with trade models based on within-sector heterogeneity. Second, a substantial share of foreign trade before 1914 was intra-industry, measured at five-digit SITC classification. Third, by 1914 Germany had firmly established a dominant international position in chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, particularly within Europe. We argue that this has broader implications for our understanding of the First Globalization.
in European Review of Economic History (2022) 26(4), 479–507
CEPR discussion paper no. 15988VoxEU articleNon-technical blog entry
Dataset access is possible, please send an email.
Between 1871 and 1914 Germany became the second largest exporter in the world, just behind the UK. In this paper, we present and analyze the panopticon of Germany's foreign trade expansion before the First World War. Our new data covers historical trade data in terms of imports and exports of all traded products, all trade partners and both quantities and values of trade, at annual frequency for the years 1880 to 1913. To allow for comparisons over time and in the cross-section, historical product categories are re-classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). This granular data reveals three new insights. First, nearly all trade growth before 1914 took place along the extensive margin, in line with trade models based on within-sector heterogeneity. Second, a substantial share of foreign trade before 1914 was intra-industry, measured at five-digit SITC classification. Third, by 1914 Germany had firmly established a dominant international position in chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, particularly within Europe. We argue that this has broader implications for our understanding of the First Globalization.
in European Review of Economic History (2022) 26(4), 479–507
CEPR discussion paper no. 15988VoxEU articleNon-technical blog entry
Dataset access is possible, please send an email.
Der deutsche Außenhandel in der Ersten Globalisierung: neue Daten, neue Erkenntnisse
Der deutsche Außenhandel in der Ersten Globalisierung: neue Daten, neue Erkenntnisse
Dieser Beitrag stellt einen Teil der mit dem Gerhard-Fürst-Preis 2019 ausgezeichneten Dissertation „On Germany and International Trade in the First Globalisation“ vor. Die Arbeit untersucht Deutschlands Außenhandel von 1880 bis 1913 – dem als Erste Globalisierung bezeichneten Zeitraum. Zunächst wird die Datengrundlage zu Handelsströmen auf Produktebene vorgestellt. Es folgen eine Berechnung der Wohlfahrtsgewinne durch importbedingt wachsende Produktvielfalt und ein Vergleich mit den Wohlfahrtsgewinnen heutiger Globalisierung. Dafür wird die Substitutionselastizität der Nachfrage auf Produktebene geschätzt, einem zentralen Parameter in den internationalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen.
in Wista - Wirtschaft und Statistik 2020 (1), 65-77
DOWNLOAD ARTICLE
in Wista - Wirtschaft und Statistik 2020 (1), 65-77
DOWNLOAD ARTICLE
Globalisierung und Außenhandel
Globalisierung und Außenhandel
with Markus Lampe
Interne Marktintegration und die Verwandlung von Außenhandel in Binnenhandel durch die Gründung des Zollvereins (1834) spielen eine wesentliche Rolle im deutschen Einigungsprozess. In Handbüchern zur Geschichte des Kaiserreichs (z. B. Wehler 1994) spielt die protektionistische Wende von 1879 als Fixpunkt einer konservativen „zweiten Reichsgründung“ eine bedeutende Rolle, die im Folgenden zu einer politisch wenig progressiven und auch wirtschaftlich nationalistischen Ausrichtung des Deutschen Reichs führte. Trotz dieser (scheinbar) protektionistischen Grundhaltung der Politik nahm die deutsche Wirtschaft an einer fulminanten Globalisierungsphase teil, angesichts derer die protektionistischen Anwandlungen wie andere politische Maßnahmen des Kaiserreichs als (unvollständige) Kompensationspolitik erscheinen. Es ist diese Globalisierungs-Erfahrung, der wir den größten Teil dieses Kapitels widmen, ohne die politischen Aspekte auszublenden. Wir beginnen mit dem breiten Horizont ökonomischer Globalisierungsphänomene des 19. Jahrhunderts, und zeigen,dass sich nach Reichsgründung Auswanderungswellen mittelfristig abschwächten, wohingegen Kapitalexporte stark zunahmen. Allerdings präsentierte der internationale Handel die zentralen Chancen und Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft und wird deshalb anhand neu ausgewerteter, detaillierter Daten vertiefend dargestellt.
chapter in "Deutschland 1871: Die Nationalstaatsbildung und der Weg in die moderne Wirtschaft", edited by: Ulrich Pfister, Jan-Otmar Hesse, Mark Spoerer and Nikolaus Wolf (2021), Tübingen: Mohr Siebeck.
Interne Marktintegration und die Verwandlung von Außenhandel in Binnenhandel durch die Gründung des Zollvereins (1834) spielen eine wesentliche Rolle im deutschen Einigungsprozess. In Handbüchern zur Geschichte des Kaiserreichs (z. B. Wehler 1994) spielt die protektionistische Wende von 1879 als Fixpunkt einer konservativen „zweiten Reichsgründung“ eine bedeutende Rolle, die im Folgenden zu einer politisch wenig progressiven und auch wirtschaftlich nationalistischen Ausrichtung des Deutschen Reichs führte. Trotz dieser (scheinbar) protektionistischen Grundhaltung der Politik nahm die deutsche Wirtschaft an einer fulminanten Globalisierungsphase teil, angesichts derer die protektionistischen Anwandlungen wie andere politische Maßnahmen des Kaiserreichs als (unvollständige) Kompensationspolitik erscheinen. Es ist diese Globalisierungs-Erfahrung, der wir den größten Teil dieses Kapitels widmen, ohne die politischen Aspekte auszublenden. Wir beginnen mit dem breiten Horizont ökonomischer Globalisierungsphänomene des 19. Jahrhunderts, und zeigen,dass sich nach Reichsgründung Auswanderungswellen mittelfristig abschwächten, wohingegen Kapitalexporte stark zunahmen. Allerdings präsentierte der internationale Handel die zentralen Chancen und Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft und wird deshalb anhand neu ausgewerteter, detaillierter Daten vertiefend dargestellt.
chapter in "Deutschland 1871: Die Nationalstaatsbildung und der Weg in die moderne Wirtschaft", edited by: Ulrich Pfister, Jan-Otmar Hesse, Mark Spoerer and Nikolaus Wolf (2021), Tübingen: Mohr Siebeck.