Published articles
Preprints (not or only partially peer-reviewed--preprints that are "final" and not to be published elsewhere are listed by year below)
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. Negative context reduces the discriminability of verbal probabilities. Under revision. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/ma7rb
Kelly, M. O., Budescu, D. V., Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. Effect of source reliability and information credibility on judgments of information quality in intelligence analysis. Under review. Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/m8yxb
Kelly, M., O., & Mandel, D. R. Effect of calibration training on the calibration of intelligence analysts' judgments. Under review. Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/p82nx
Mandel, D. R. Artificial general intelligence, existential risk, and human risk perception. Under revision. Preprint: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.08698 [Cs.cy]
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. When half is at least 50%: Effect of "framing" and probability level on frequency estimates. Under revision. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/3f5nh/
Walker, A. C., Collins, R. N., Walker, H. E. K., Fugelsang, J. A., & Mandel, D. R. Everyone I don't like is biased: Affective evaluations and the bias blind spot. Under review. Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/n427e
Accepted conditionally or in press
Timms, M.A.C., Mandel, D.R., & Nelson, J. D. (in press). Applying information theory to validate commanders' critical information requirements. In N.M. Scala and J.P. Howard, II (Eds.), Handbook of Military and Defence Operation Research (2nd ed., ch. 16). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/n8xka
Published electronically in advance of print
Wilcox, J. & Mandel, D. R. (2024, February 6). Critical review of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique: Lessons for the intelligence community. Intelligence and National Security. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2024.2304934 Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/an32t
2024
Collins, R. N. & Mandel, D. R. (2024). The wisdom of the coherent: Identifying experts within the crowd. DRDC Scientific Letter [DRDC-RDDC-2024-L065]. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R., Karvetski, C. W., Wu, C. M., & Nelson, J. D. (2024). The wisdom of the coherent: Improving correspondence with coherence-weighted aggregation. Decision, 11(1), 60-85. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000211 Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/fmnty/
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R., & Macleod, B. (2024). Verbal and numeric probability information differentially shapes decisions. Thinking & Reasoning, 30(1), 235-257. https://doi.org/10.1080/13546783.2023.2220971 [open access]. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/ad7gw
Grossman, I., Varnum, M., Hutcherson, C., & Mandel, D. R. (2024). When expert predictions fail. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 28(2), 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.10.005 Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/my24e
Mandel, D. R. (2024). Is generalization decay a fundamental law of psychology? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 47: e54. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X23002352 [open access]. Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/ygn9b/
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2024). Beyond bias minimization: Improving intelligence with optimization and human augmentation. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 37(2), 649-665 [open access]. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2023.2253120
Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/7hx2c
2023
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R., & Budescu, D. V. (2023). Performance-weighted aggregation: Ferreting out wisdom within the crowd. In M. Seifert (Ed.) Judgment in Predictive Analytics (pp. 185-214). [International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 343]. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1_7
Fraser, H., Bush, M., Wintle, B. C., Mody, F., Smith, E., Hanea, A., Gould, E., Hemming, V., Hamilton, D. G., Rumpff, L., Wilkinson, D. P., Pearson, R., Thorn, F. S., Ashton, R., Willcox, A., Gray, C. T., Head, A., Ross, M., Groenewegen, R., Marcoci, A., Vercammen, A., Parker, T., Hoekstra, R., Nakagawa, S., Mandel, D. R., van Ravenzwaaij, D., McBride, M., Sinnott, R. O., Vesk, P., Burgman, M., & Fidler, F. (2023). Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process. PLoS ONE, 18(1): e0274429. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274429. Preprint: https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/2pczv/
Grossman, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M.E.W., Achter, S., Dhami, M.K., Guo, X., Kara-Yakoubian, M., Mandel, D.R., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K.S., Baník, G., Bartoš, F., Baskin, E., Bergmeir, C., Białek, M., Børsting, C.K., Browne, D., Caruso, E., Chen, R., Chie, B.-T., Chopik, W.J., Collins, R.N., Cong, C.W., Conway III, L.G., Davis, M.H., Day, M.V., Dhaliwal, N., Durham, J., Dziekan, M., Elbaek, C.T., Shuman, E., Fabrykant, M., Firat, M.A., Fong, G.T., Frimer, J., Gallegos, J., Goldberg, S., Gollwitzer, A., Goyal, J., Graf-Vlachy, L., Gronlund, S.D., Hafenbrädl, S., Hartanto, A., Hirshberg, M.J., Hornsey, M., Howe, P., Izadi, A., Jaeger, B., Kačmár, P., Kim, Y.J., Krenzler, R., Lannin, D.G., Lin, H.-W., Lou, N.M., Lua, V., Lukaszewski, A., Ly, A., Madan, C., Maier, M., Majeed, N.M., March, D.S., Marsh, A., Misiak, M., Myrseth, K.O.R., Napan, J., Nicholas, J., Nikolopoulos, K., O, J., Otterbring, T., Paruzel-Czachura, M., Pauer, S., Protzko, J., Raffaelli, Q., Ropovik, I., Ross, R.M., Roth, Y. Røysamb, E., Schnabel, L., Schütz, A., Seifert, M., Sevincer, T., Sherman, G., Simonsson, O., Sung, M.-C., Tai, C.-C., Talhelm, T., Teachman, B., Tetlock, P., Thomakos, D., Tse, D., Twardus, O., Tybur, J.M., Ungar, L.H., Vandermeulen, D., Williams, L.V., Vosgerichian, H.A., Wang, Q., Wang, K., Whiting, M.E., Wollbrant, C., Yang, T., Yogeeswaran, K., Yoon, S., Alves, V.R., Andrews-Hanna, J.R., Bloom, P.A., Boyles, A., Loo, C., Choi, M., Darling-Hammond, S., Ferguson, Z.E., Kaiser, C., Karg, S.T., Ortega, A.L., Mahoney, L., Marsh, M., Martinie, M.F.R.C., Michaels, E., Millroth, P., Naqvi, J., Ng, W., Rutledge, R., Slattery, P., Smiley, A.H., Strijbis, O., Sznycer, D., Tsukayama, E., van Loon, A., Voelkel, J.G., Wienk, M., & Wilkening, T. (2023). Insights into accuracy of scientists' forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behavior, 7(4), 484-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/wdxsb
Irwin, D., Mandel, D. R. (2023). A pre-post evaluation of commercial calibration training for intelligence analysts. DRDC Scientific Letter [DRDC-RDDC-2023-L046]. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Irwin, D., & Mandel, D. R. (2023). Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and non-expert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats. Risk Analysis, 43, 943-957. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14009 (open access) Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/hwp5r
Irwin, D., Mandel, D. R., & MacLeod, B. (2023). American and Chinese public opinion in an era of great power competition: Ingroup bias and threat perceptions. Journal of Contemporary China, 32(140), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2022.2071833. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/8fvdg
Kimmelman, J., Mandel, D. R., & Benjamin, D. M. (2023). Expert prediction and clinical trials: A synthesis of five empirical studies and their implications. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 66(1), 107-128.
Mandel, D. R. (2023). Subjective equivalence: A basic requirement for strict framing effects: Commentary on Huizenga et al. (2023). Decision, 10(3), 235-237. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000206. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/tjah9/
Mandel, D. R., Irwin, D., Dhami, M. K., & Budescu, D. V. (2023). Meta-informational cue inconsistency and judgment of information accuracy: Spotlight on intelligence analysis. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 36, e2307. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2307. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/2hg5q/
Mandel, D. R. (2023). Review of: Grice's café -- coffee, cream, and metaphor comprehension. Qeios. https://doi.org/10.32388/QCGWUT
Vartanian, O., Lam, T. K., Mandel, D. R., Saint, S. A., Navarrete, G., Carmichael, O. T., Murray, K., Pillai, S. R., Shankapal, P., Caldwell, J., Berryman, C. E., Karl, J. P., Harris, M., Rood, J. C., Pasiakos, S. M., Rice, E., Duncan, M., & Lieberman, H. R. (2023). Effect of exogenous testosterone in the context of energy deficit on risky choice: Behavioural and neural evidence from males. Biological Psychology, 176: 108464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsycho.2022.108468
2022
Benjamin, D., Hey, S., MacPherson, A., Hachem, Y., Smith, K, Zhang, S. Wong, S., Dolter, S. Mandel, D. R., & Kimmelman, J. (2022). Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational clinical trial outcomes. PLoS ONE, 17(2): e0262862. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262862
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2022). Communicating uncertainty using words and numbers. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 26(6), 514-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2022.03.002
Mandel, D. (2022). Communicating uncertainty in warning intelligence. The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare, 4(3), 133–137. https://doi.org/10.21810/jicw.v4i3.4161
Mandel, D. R. (2022). Conjectures on science and rationality: Commentary on Fiedler, Salmen, & Prager (2022). Decision, 9(3), 212–214. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000174. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/kt5ya/
Mandel, D. R. (2022). Framing, equivalence, and rational inference. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 45: e234. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X22000954. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/racn3/
Mandel, D. R. (2022). Intelligence, science, and the ignorance hypothesis. In R. Arcos, N. Drumhiller & M. Phythian (Eds.), The Academic-Practitioner Divide in Intelligence Studies (pp. 79-93). Roman & Littlefield (Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series). ISBN: 1538144476, 9781538144473 [preprint]
Mandel, D. R., Collins, R. C., Walker, A. C., Fugelsang, J. A., & Risko, E. F. (2022). Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication, introspection bias, and conversational processes. Judgment and Decision Making, 17(6), 1392-1421. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/d9bnf
Mandel, D. R., Hendriks, T. L., & Irwin, D. (2022). Policy for promoting analytic rigor in intelligence: Professionals’ views and their psychological correlates. Intelligence and National Security, 37(2), 177-196 https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2021.1999621 [open access]
Scoblic, J. P., & Mandel, D. R. (2022, June 28). How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel
2021
Benjamin, D., Mandel, D. R., Barnes, T., Krzyzanowska, M. K., Leighl, N. B., Tannock, I. F., & Kimmelman, J. (2021). Can oncologists predict the efficacy of treatment in randomized trials? The Oncologist, 26, 56-62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1634/theoncologist.2020-0054 [PDF]
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R. (2021). Communicating assessments with verbal and numeric probabilities: Implications for perceived credibility of intelligence products. DRDC Scientific Letter [DRDC-RDDC-2021-L289]. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R. (2021). Communicating assessments with verbal and numeric probabilities: Implications for policy-neutrality of intelligence products. DRDC Scientific Letter [DRDC-RDDC-2021-L296]. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Collins, R. N., Mandel, D. R., & Schywiola, S. S. (2021). Political identity over personal impact: Early US reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Frontiers in Psychology, 12:607639. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.607639. Preprint: https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/jeq6y
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2021). Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis. American Psychologist, 76(3), 549-560. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/amp0000637 [PDF]
Fisher, S. & Mandel, D. R. (2021). Risky-choice framing and rational decision-making. Philosophy Compass, 16(8): e12763. https://doi.org/10.1111/phc3.12763
Fisher, S., & Mandel, D. R. (2021). Teaching & learning guide for: Risky-choice framing and rational decision-making. Philosophy Compass, 16(12). e12794. https://doi.org/10.1111/phc3.12794
Hanea, A. D. Wilkinson, D., McBride, M., Lyon, A., van Ravenzwaaij, D., Singleton Thorn, F., Gray, C., Mandel, D. R., Willcox, A., Gould, E., Smith, E., Mody, F., Bush, M., Fidler, F., Fraser, H., & Wintle, B. (2021). Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures. PLoS ONE, 16(9): e0256919. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256919
Mandel, D. R. (2021). A positive future for futures and foresight science needs fierce competition in the marketplace of ideas: Commentary on Fergnami and Chermack 2021. Futures and Foresight Science, 3(3-4), e67, 1-2. http://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.67 [preprint]
Mandel, D. R. (2021). Scoping the future with theory-driven models—Where’s the uncertainty?: Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021. Futures and Foresight Science, 3(2), e71, 1-2. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.71
Mandel, D. R. (2021, March 19). Theories, queries, "frames" and linguistic games: commentary on Wall, Crookes, Johnson & Weber (2020) (and the literature on risky-choice framing). https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/c5bf4
Mandel, D. R., Dhami, M. K., Tran, S., & Irwin, D. (2021). Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 34(4), 593-608. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2232 [preprint]
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2021). Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both? Judgment and Decision Making, 16(2), 363-393. Preprint available from https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hm7zu
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2021). On measuring agreement with numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes: A re-analysis of data from Wintle, Fraser, Wills, Nicholson, and Fidler (2019). PLoS ONE, 16(3): e0248424. https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0248424
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2021). Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long-term Canadian study. Futures and Foresight Science, 3(3-4), e98, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.98. Preprint: https://psyarxiv.com/m6g8b/
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2021). Uncertainty, intelligence, and national security decisionmaking. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 34(3), 558-582. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2020.1809056 [preprint]
Mandel, D. R., & MacLeod, B. (2021). Calibration training: An annotated bibliography. DRDC Scientific Letter [DRDC-RDDC-2021-L288]. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Mandel, D. R., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (2021). Numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes are unlikely to communicate uncertainty effectively. Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001526. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001526 [preprint]
2020
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2020). UK and US policies for communicating probability in intelligence analysis: A review. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 307-318). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
Hendriks, T. L., & Mandel, D. R. (2020). Intelligence professionals’ views on analytic standards and organizational compliance. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 77-90). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [PDF] [Full report]
Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (2020). How intelligence organizations communicate confidence (unclearly). In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 349-368). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (2020). Variants of vague verbiage: Intelligence community methods for communicating probability. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 319-348). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [PDF] [Full report]
Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (2020). Standards for evaluating source reliability and information credibility in intelligence production. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 117-132). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
Karvetski, C. W., & Mandel, D. R. (2020). Coherence of probability judgments from uncertain evidence: Does ACH help? Judgment and Decision Making, , 15(6), 939-958. [PDF]
Karvetski, C. W., Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020). Improving probability judgment in intelligence analysis: From structured analysis to statistical aggregation. Risk Analysis, 40(5), 1040-1057. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13443 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2020, August 13). Framing effects, replications, and scientific inference: Reply to commentary by Simmons and Nelson (2013) on Mandel (2014). https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/34jeg
Mandel, D. R. (2020). Studies past and future of the past and future: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020. Futures & Foresight Science, 2: e39. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.39 [open access from publisher]
Mandel, D. R. (2020). Taking full advantage of the COVID crisis. In J. Baumel-Schwartz (Ed.), Creating Under Covid (pp. 91-92, bio: p. 172). Ramat Gan, Israel: The Arnold and Leora Finkler Institute of Holocaust Research.
Mandel, D. R. (2020). Systematic monitoring of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 179-194). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [PDF] [Full report]
Mandel, D. R. (2020). The occasional maverick of analytic tradecraft. Intelligence and National Security, 35(3), 438-443. https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2020.1723830 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., Collins, R. N., Risko, E. F., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2020). Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy. Judgment and Decision Making, 15(5), 783-797. [preprint]
Timms, M.A.C., Mandel, D.R., & Nelson, J. D. (2020). Applying information theory to validate commanders' critical information requirements. In N. M. Scala and J.P. Howard, II (Eds.), Handbook of Military and Defence Operation Research (pp. 331-344). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. [PDF]
Reprinted: Timms, M.A.C., Mandel, D.R., & Nelson, J. D. (2020). Applying information theory to validate commanders' critical information requirements. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 105-116)). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
2019
Bergeron-Guyard, A., Lecocq, R., Lebrun, R., Dessureault, D., Roy, J., Lavigne, V., Martineau, E., Jobidon, M.-E., Forrester, B., Michaud, P., Berger, J., & Mandel, D. (2019). Intelligence production architecture vision. DRDC Scientific Report DRDC-RDDC-2019-R005. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Collins, R. N., & Mandel, D. R. (2019). Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(6), 683-695. [PDF]
Fan, Y., Budescu, D. V., Mandel, D., Himmelstein, M. (2019). Improving accuracy by coherence weighting of direct and ratio probability judgments. Decision Analysis, 16, 197-217. doi: https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2018.0388 [PDF]
Dhami, M. K., Belton, I., & Mandel, D. R. (2019). The ‘Analysis of Competing Hypotheses’ in intelligence analysis. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 33(6), 1080-1090. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3550 [PDF]
Hendriks, T. L., & Mandel, D. R. (2019). Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC) Professionals’ Views on Analytic Standards and Organizational Compliance. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2019-L096. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (2019). Improving information evaluation for intelligence production. Intelligence and National Security, 34(4), 503-525. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2019). Assessing and communicating uncertainty effectively in a rapidly changing world. Proceedings of the 13th Annual NATO Operations Research and Analysis Conference: Challenges for NATO OR&A in a Changing Global Security Environment [MP-SAS-OCS-ORA-2019-M-02-1]. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2019). Can decision science improve intelligence analysis? In S. Coulthart, M. Landon-Murray, & D. Van Puyvelde (Eds), Researching National Security Intelligence: Multidisciplinary Approaches (ch. 7, pp. 117-140). Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2019). Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018). Judgment and Decision Making, 14(3), 288-292. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., Navarrete, G., Dieckmann, N., & Nelson, J. D. (2019). Editorial: Judgment and decision making under uncertainty: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive perspectives. Frontiers in Psychology, 10:1506, 1-3. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01506
2018
Chang, W., Berdini, E., Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2018). Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence. Intelligence and National Security, 33(3), 337-356. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2017.1400230 [PDF]
Irwin, D., & Mandel, D. R. (2018). Methods for communicating analytic confidence in intelligence to decision-makers: an annotated collection. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2018-L020. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Irwin, D., & Mandel, D. R. (2018). Methods for communicating estimative probability in intelligence to decision-makers: an annotated collection. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2018-L017. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Irwin, D., & Mandel, D. R. (2018). Methods for evaluating source reliability and information credibility in intelligence and law enforcement: an annotated collection. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2018-L035. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Mandel, D. R. (2018). Proceedings of SAS-114 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty, Assessing Information Quality and Risk, and Using Structured Techniques in Intelligence Analysis. NATO Meeting Proceedings [Pub. Ref. STO-MP-SAS-114-AC/323(SAS-114)TP/780, ISBN 978-92-837-2106-2]. Brussels, Belgium: NATO STO. doi: 10.14339/STO-MP-SAS-114 [PDF] [direct access from NATO]
Mandel, D. R., & Barnes, A. (2018). Geopolitical forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 31(1), 127-137. doi: 10.1002/bdm.2055. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Kapler, I. (2018). Cognitive style and frame susceptibility in decision-making. Frontiers in Psychology, 9:1461. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.01461
Mandel, D. R., Karvetski, C. & Dhami, M. K. (2018). Boosting intelligence analysts' judgment accuracy: what works, what fails? Judgment and Decision Making, 13(6), 607-621. [PDF]
Reprinted: Mandel, D. R., Karvetski, C. & Dhami, M. K. (2020). Boosting intelligence analysts' judgment accuracy: what works, what fails? In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 211-232). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2018). Correcting judgment correctives in national security intelligence. Frontiers in Psychology, 9:2640, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02640 [PDF]
Reprinted: Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2020). Correcting judgment correctives in national security intelligence. D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114 (pp. 39-45). Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science and Technology Organization. [Full report]
2017
Benjamin D., Mandel D. R., & Kimmelman J. (2017). Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce? PLoS Biol 15(6): e2002212. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.2002212
Mandel, D. R. (2017). CFINTCOM methodology for producing threat and hazard analysis: Advice on the quantitative threat assessment stage. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2017-L190.
Mandel, D. R. (2017). Research design principles for ISTAR C2 project validation. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2017-L192. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Mandel, D. R. (2017). Stage 1 validation tool development for the Intelligence, Surveillance,Target, Acquisition and Reconnaissance Command and Control (ISTAR C2) project. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2017-L262. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
Mellers, B. A., Baker, J. D., Chen, E., Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(4), 369-381. [PDF]
Timms, M., & Mandel, D. R. (2017). Dangerous assumptions: A critical review of the Indicators Validator technique for assessing the predictive value of threat event indicators in intelligence analysis. DRDC Scientific Letter DRDC-RDDC-2017-L196. Ottawa, Canada: Defence Research and Development Canada.
2016
Mandel, D. R., & Tetlock, P. E. (2016). Debunking the myth of value-neutral virginity: Toward truth in scientific advertising. Frontiers in Psychology, 7, article 451, 1-5, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00451
2015
Alicke, M., Mandel, D. R., Hilton, D. J., Gerstenberg, T., & Lagnado, D. A. (2015). Causal conceptions in social explanation and moral evaluation: A historical tour. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 106(6), 790-812. [PDF]
Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., Mellers, B. A., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). Improving intelligence analysis with decision science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 106(6), 753-757. [PDF]
Dorn, A. W., Mandel, D. R., & Cross, R. (2015). How just were America's wars? A survey of experts using a just war index. International Studies Perspectives, 16, 270-285. [PDF]
Ho, E. Budescu, D. V., Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). Improving the communication of uncertainty in climate science and intelligence analysis. Behavioral Science & Policy, 1(2), 43-55. [PDF] [Featured in Chicago Policy Review]
Mandel, D. R. (2015). Accuracy of intelligence forecasts from the intelligence consumer’s perspective. Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2, 111-120. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2015). Communicating numeric quantities in context: Implications for decision science and rationality claims. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, article 537, doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00537
Mandel, D. R. (2015). Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, article 387, 1-12. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00387
Mandel, D.R., & Navarrete, G. (2015). Editorial: Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why? Frontiers in Psychology, 6, article 1872. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01872
Tikuisis, P., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). Is the world deteriorating? Global Governance, 21, 9-14. [PDF]
Tombu, M., & Mandel, D. R. (2015). When does framing influence preferences, risk perceptions, and risk attitudes? The explicated valence account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(5), 464-476. doi: 10.1002/bdm.1863 [PDF]
2014
Beatty, E. L., Vartanian, O., Muller-Gass, A., Robertson, J. A., Mandel, D. R., & Stergiopoulos, S. (2014). Neuroanatomical correlates of categorizing emotional valence. NeuroReport, 25(11), 854-859. doi: 10.1097/WNR.0000000000000200 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2014). Do framing effects reveal irrational choice? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(3), 1185-1198. doi: 10.1037/a0034207 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2014). How good are strategic intelligence forecasts? Policy Options, 35(6), 67-69. [PDF] [Blog]
Mandel, D. R. (2014). Suicide terrorism, moral relativism, and the situationist narrative. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 37(4), 373. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2014). The psychology of Bayesian reasoning. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, article 1144, 1-4. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01144.
Mandel, D. R. (2014). Visual representation of rational belief revision: Another look at the Sleeping Beauty problem. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, article 1232, 1-4. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01232.
Mandel, D. R., & Barnes, A. (2014). Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(30), 10984-10989. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1406138111 [PDF] Reviewed in The Economist] [PNAS commentary by P. Tetlock & B. Mellers]
Mandel, D. R., Barnes, A., & Richards, K. (2014). A quantitative assessment of the quality of strategic intelligence forecasts. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2013-036. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Omorogbe, P. (2014). Political differences in past, present, and future life satisfaction: Republicans are more sensitive than Democrats to political climate. PLoS ONE, 9(6), e98854, 1-11.
Tikuisis, P., Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2014). Effect of feedback mode and task difficulty on quality of timing decisions in a zero-sum game. Human Factors, 56(6), 1062-1076. [PDF]
2013
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2013). How do defendants choose their trial court? Evidence for a heuristic processing account. Judgment and Decision Making, 8, 552-560. [PDF]
Karvetski, C. W., Olson, K. C., Mandel, D. R., & Twardy, C. R. (2013). Probabilistic coherence weighting for optimizing expert forecasts. Decision Analysis, 10(4), 305-326. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.2013.0279 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2013). Challenges and opportunities for defense and security science in the human domain. DRDC Toronto Technical Report TR-2012-124. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [Originally authored as an unpublished White Paper for the Steering Committee on The Neurobiology of Political Violence: New Tools, New Insights. Washington, D.C.: US Department of Defense.] [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2013). Counterterrorism and Muslim public opinion. In H. Cabayan, V. Sitterle, & M. Yandura (Eds.), Looking back, looking forward: Perspectives on terrorism and responses to it: Strategic multi-layer assessment occasional white paper (pp. 50-60). Arlington VA: Office of Secretary of Defense, Director, Defense Research & Engineering. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2013). Gender differences in attitudes towards police use of Tasers following the Dziekanski case. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 13, 310-326. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. & Litt, A. (2013). The ultimate sacrifice: Perceived peer honor predicts troops' willingness to risk their lives. Group Processes and Intergroup Relations, 16(3), 375-388. DOI: 10.1177/1368430212461961 [PDF]
Stone, E. R., Choi,Y., Bruine de Bruin, W., & Mandel, D. R. (2013). I can take the risk, but you should be safe: Self-other differences in situations involving physical safety. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(3), 250-267. [PDF]
Thomason, N. R., Adajian, T., Barnett, A. E., Boucher, S., van der Brugge, E., Campbell, J., Knorpp, W., Lempert, R., Lengbeyer, L., Mandel, D. R., Rider, Y., van Gelder, T., & Wilkins, J. (2013). Critical thinking final report (139 p., N66001-12-C-2004 [final report to IARPA]). Melbourne, Australia: University of Melbourne.
Tikuisis, P., Buick, F., Hawton, A., Hollands, J., Keefe, A., Kwantes, P., Mandel, D. R., Pickering, D., Stergiopoulos, S., Thompson, M., & Upal, A. (2013). Futuristic outlook on human-centric S&T. DRDC Toronto Technical Memorandum 2013-060. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., Kwantes, P., Mandel, D. R., Bouak, F., Nakashima, A., Smith, I., & Lam, Q. (2013). Right inferior frontal gyrus activation as a neural marker of deception. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 7, article 616, 1-6.
2012
Adams, B. A., Thomson, M., Derbentseva, N., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Capability challenges in the human domain for intelligence analysis: Report on community-wide discussions with Canadian intelligence professionals. DRDC Toronto Contract Report CR-2011-182. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Derbentseva, N., Kwantes, P., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Assessing diversity and similarity of conceptual understanding via semi-automated semantic analysis of concept maps. In A. J. Cañas, J. D. Novak, & J. Vanhear (Eds.), Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Concept Mapping, V.1 (pp. 41-48). Valetta: University of Malta. [PDF]
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Crime as risk taking. Psychology, Crime and Law, 18(4), 389-403. [PDF]
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Forecasted risk taking in youth: Evidence for a bounded-rationality perspective. Synthese, 189, 161-171. DOI: 10.1007/s11229-012-0110-2 [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2012). On the psychology of evil in interpersonal and corporate contexts. In C. Jurkiewicz (Ed.) The foundations of organizational evil (pp. 87-102). New York, NY: Routledge. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2012). What do Americans and Chinese think about themselves and each other? In S. Clark & S. Hoque (Eds.), Debating a post-American world: What lies ahead? (pp. 110-116). Oxon, UK: Routledge. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., Kwantes, P., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Lying in the scanner: Localized inhibition predicts lying skill. Neuroscience Letters, 529, 18-22. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Neural bases of judgment and decision making. In M. K. Dhami, A. Schlottmann, & M. R. Waldmann (Eds.), Judgment and decision making as a skill: Learning, development and evolution (pp. 29-52). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2012). Reflections on the neuroscience of decision making. Mathware & Soft Computing Magazine, 19(1), 20-24. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., Stewart, K., Mandel, D. R., Pavlovic, N., McLellan, L., Taylor, P. J. (2012). Personality assessment and behavioral prediction at first impression. Personality and Individual Differences, 52, 250-254. [PDF]
2011
Derbentseva, N., & Mandel, D. R. (2011). A concept map knowledge model of intelligence analysis. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2011-077. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Derbentseva, N., & Mandel, D. R. (2011). Using Concept Maps to improve the practice and organization of intelligence in Canada. In B. Moon, R. R. Hoffman, J. Novak, and A. J. Canas (Eds), Applied concept mapping: Capturing, analyzing, and organizing knowledge (pp. 109-130). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. [PDF] [read review in Knowledge Engineering Review]
Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., & Garcia-Retamero, R. (2011). Canadian and Spanish youths' risk perceptions of drinking and driving and riding with a drunk driver. Journal of International Psychology, 46, 81-90. [PDF]
Ferriday, C. L., Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2011). Public but not private ego threat triggers aggression in narcissists. European Journal of Social Psychology, 41, 564-568. [PDF]
Filardo, E.-A., Mandel, D. R., & Vartanian, O. (2011). Effects of self-esteem and mortality salience on attitudes toward Canadian security: Exploring the significance of implicit-explicit and personal-collective distinctions. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2010-042. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Kamleitner, B., Mandel, D. R., & Dhami, M. K. (2011). Risky discounts: Do people prefer them on a per-item or per-purchase basis and why? Journal of Economic Psychology, 32, 951-961. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2011). Affect and risk perception in the context of terrorism: Towards an understanding of its psychosocial aspects. In A. Speckhard (Ed.) Psychosocial, Organizational, and Cultural Aspects of Terrorism: Final Report to NATO HFM140/RTO (pp. 14-1 to 14.10). Brussels: NATO. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2011). Mental simulation and the nexus of causal and counterfactual explanation. In C. Hoerl, T. McCormack, & S. Beck (Eds.), Understanding counterfactuals, understanding causation: Issues in philosophy and psychology (pp. 147-170). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2011). Military social influence: Commentary on King. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 11, 39-42. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2011). The role of instigators in radicalization to violent extremism. In A. Speckhard (Ed.) Psychosocial, Organizational, and Cultural Aspects of Terrorism: Final Report to NATO HFM140/RTO (pp. 2-1 to 2-10). Brussels: NATO. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Vartanian, O. (2011). Frames, brains, and content domains: Neural and behavioral effects of descriptive content on preferential choice. In O. Vartanian and D. R. Mandel (Eds.), Neuroscience of decision making (pp. 45-70). New York: Psychology Press. [PDF]
Pavlovic, N. J., & Mandel, D. R. (2011). Aggregating indices of governance quality: An exploratory factor analysis. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2011-022. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2011). Introduction. In O. Vartanian and D. R. Mandel (Eds.), Neuroscience of decision making (pp. 1-7). New York: Psychology Press. [PDF]
Vartanian, O., Mandel, D. R., & Duncan, M. (2011). Money or life: Behavioral and neural context effects on choice under uncertainty. Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 4, 25-36. [PDF]
2010
Campbell, A., & Mandel, D. R. (2010). Summary record of the GFF Community of Interest on the Practice and Organization of Intelligence Ottawa Roundtable: What can the cognitive and behavioural sciences contribute to intelligence analysis? Towards a collaborative agenda for the future. DRDC Toronto Contractor Report 2010-012. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Derbentseva, N., McLellan, L., & Mandel, D.R. (2010). Issues in intelligence production: Summary of interviews with Canadian intelligence managers. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2010-144. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2010, March). Confirmation and positive-test biases in hypothesis testing. Intelligence Analyst Training Newsletter, 8-9. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2010). Instigators and perpetrators of collective violence. In L. Fenstermacher, L. Kuznar, T. Rieger, & A. Speckhard (Eds), Protecting the Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism Threats: Current Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives on Root Causes, the Role of Ideology, and Programs for Counter-radicalization and Disengagement (pp. 122-128). Arlington VA: Office of Secretary of Defense, Director, Defense Research & Engineering. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2010). Predicting blame assignment in a case of harm caused by negligence. Mind & Society, 9, 5-17. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2010). Radicalization: What does it mean? In T. M. Pick, A. Speckhard, & B. Jacuch (Eds.), Home-grown terrorism: Understanding and addressing the root causes of radicalisation among groups with an immigrant heritage in Europe (pp. 101-113). Amsterdam, Netherlands: IOS Press. [In NATO Science for Peace and Security Series E: Human and Social Dynamics -- Vol. 60] [PDF]
Reprinted in P. Neumann (Ed.) (2015). Radicalisation (ch. 1). London: Routledge.
Mandel, D. R. & Vartanian, O. (2010). Bush v. Bin Laden: Effect of state emotion on perceived threat is mediated by emotion towards the threat agent. International Review of Social Psychology, 23(1), 5-23. [Special issue on terrorism] [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., Vartanian, O., Adams, B. D., & Thomson, M. H. (2010). Performance of UN military observer teams: Does victim proximity escalate commitment to saving lives? Human Performance, 23(3), 229-246. [PDF]
2009
Ferriday, C., Vartanian, O., & Mandel, D. R. (2009). Falling off the self-imposed pedestal: How audience presence and feedback affect aggressive responding in narcissists. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2009-215. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Kamleitner, B., Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2009). Gambling for a discount: Preferring a discount per item to discount per purchase? Advances in Consumer Research, 36, 566-567. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2009). Applied behavioural science in support of intelligence: Experiences in building a Canadian capability. Commissioned report to the Committee on Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counter-intelligence, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Vartanian, O. (2009). Weighting of contingency information in causal judgment: Evidence of hypothesis dependence and use of a positive-test strategy. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62(12), 2388-2408. [PDF]
2008
Mandel, D. R. (2008, June). Judgment under uncertainty. Intelligence Analyst Training Newsletter, 7-9. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2008). Violations of coherence in subjective probability: A representational and assessment processes account. Cognition, 106(1), 130-156. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Vartanian, O. (2008). Taboo or tragic: Effect of tradeoff type on moral choice, conflict, and confidence, Mind & Society, 7(2), 215-226. [PDF]
Pavlovic, N. J., Blackler, K., & Mandel, D. R. (2008). Conflict and security indices: A summary of open-source data. DRDC Toronto Technical Memorandum 2008-168. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Pavlovic, N. J., Casagrande Hoshino, L., Mandel, D. R., & Dorn, A. W. (2008). Indicators and indices of conflict and security: A review and classification of open-source data. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2008-167. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
2007
Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., & Sothmann, K. (2007). An evaluation of post-adoption services. Children and Youth Services Review, 29(2), 162-179. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2007). Differential focus in causal and counterfactual thinking: Different possibilities or different functions? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(5), 460-461. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2007). Nested-sets theory, full stop: Explaining performance on Bayesian inference tasks without dual-systems assumptions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(3), 275-276. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2007). Toward a concept of risk for effective military decision making. DRDC Toronto Technical Report 2007-124. Toronto, Canada: DRDC. [PDF]
Williams, J. J., & Mandel, D. R. (2007). Do evaluation frames improve the quality of conditional probability judgment? In D. S. McNamara & J. G. Trafton (Eds.), Proceedings of the 29th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1653-1658), Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [PDF]
2006
Dhami, M.K., Mandel, D. R., Loewenstein, G., & Ayton, P. (2006). Prisoners' positive illusions of their post-release success. Law and Human Behavior, 30, 631-647. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2006). Economic transactions among friends: Asymmetric generosity but not agreement in buyers' and sellers' offers. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(4), 584-606. [PDF]
[Featured in Harvard Negotiation Newsletter, 10(3), 12, March 2007 (see Research Summary "Dealing with Friends").]
Mandel, D. R., & Vartanian, O. (2006). Is the weighting of contingency data contingent on the hypothesis assessed? In R. Sun & N. Miyake (Eds.), Proceedings of the 28th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (p. 2652). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [PDF]
White, K., Lehman, D.R., Hemphill, K. J., Mandel, D. R., & Lehman, A. M. (2006). Causal attributions, perceived control, and psychological adjustment: A study of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36(1), 75-99. [PDF]
2005
Dhami, M. K., Mandel, D. R., & Souza, K. (2005). Escape from reality: Prisoner's counterfactual thinking about crime, justice and punishment. In D. R. Mandel, D. J Hilton, & P. Catellani (Eds.), The psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 165-182). New York: Routledge. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2005). Are risk assessments of a terrorist attack coherent? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 11(4), 277-288. [PDF]
[Featured September 24, 2007, in The Washington Post.]
Mandel, D. R. (2005). Counterfactual and causal explanation: From early theoretical views to new frontiers. In D. R. Mandel, D. J Hilton, & P. Catellani (Eds.), The psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 11-27). New York: Routledge. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2005). Threats to democracy: A judgment and decision making perspective. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 5(1), 209-222. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Dhami, M. K.(2005). Introduction to the special issue, psychological perspectives on threats to democracy. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 5(1), 205-207. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Dhami, M. K. (2005). "What I did" versus "What I might have done": Effect of factual and counterfactual thinking on blame, guilt, and shame in prisoners. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 41, 637-645. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., Hilton, D. J., & Catellani, P. (2005). Introduction. In D. R. Mandel, D. J Hilton, & P. Catellani (Eds.), The psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 1-7). New York: Routledge. [PDF]
2004
Mandel, D.R. (2004). Social psychological perspectives on the instigation of collective violence. In D. Munos-Rojas, J.-M. Falomir, & X. Chryssochoou (Eds.) Proceedings of the Conference on War and Peace: Social Psychological Approaches to Armed Conflict and Humanitarian Issues] (pp. 183-190). Geneva, Switzerland: International Committee of the Red Cross and University of Geneva.
Mandel, D. R. (2004). Unanimity may be improbable; dictatorship is worse: Comment on The Dangers of Unanimity by R. B. Zajonc. Dialogue, 19(2), 28-29. [PDF]
2003
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. (2003). Adoption Support Program Queen Alexandra Centre for Children's Health: Evaluation of Client Services 2003 Final Report [Technical Report]. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2003). Counterfactuals, emotion, and context. Cognition & Emotion, 17, 139-159. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2003). Effect of counterfactual and factual thinking on causal judgments. Thinking & Reasoning, 9, 245-265. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2003). Judgment dissociation theory: An analysis of differences in causal, counterfactual, and covariational reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 137, 419-434. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2003). Simulating history: The problem of contingency. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 3, 177-180. [PDF]
Mandel, D.R. (2003). The obedience alibi. In M.C. Cardwell, E.Clark and C.Meldrum (Eds.). Psychology for AS-level (3rd ed., p. 174). London: Collins. [PDF]
Spellman, B. A., & Mandel, D. R. (2003). Causal reasoning, Psychology of. In Nadel, L. (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science (Vol. 1, pp. 461-466). London: Nature Publishing Group. [PDF]
2002
Lehman, A. M., Lehman, D. R., Hemphill, K. J., Mandel, D. R., & Cooper, L. M. (2002). Illness experience, depression, and anxiety in chronic fatigue syndrome. Journal of Psychosomatic Research, 52, 461-465. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2002). Beyond mere ownership: Transaction demand as a moderator of the endowment effect. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 737-747. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2002). Evil and the instigation of collective violence. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 2, 101-108. [PDF]
[Abbreviated reprint: Mandel, D. R. (2010). The war on terror is described as a battle between good and evil. In D. Bryfonski (Ed.), Violence in William Golding's Lord of the Flies (pp. 158-164). Farmington Hills, MI: Greenhaven Press. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R. (2002). Instigators of genocide: Examining Hitler from a social psychological perspective. In L. S. Newman and R. Erber (Eds.), Understanding genocide: The social psychology of the Holocaust (pp. 259-284). New York: Oxford University Press. [PDF]
Villejoubert, G., & Mandel, D. R. (2002). The inverse fallacy: An account of deviations from Bayes's theorem and the additivity principle. Memory & Cognition, 30, 171-178. [PDF] [Erratum]
2001
Mandel, D. R. (2001). Gain-loss framing and choice: Separating outcome formulations from descriptor formulations. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 85, 56-76. [PDF]
2000
Mandel, D. R. (2000). On the meaning and function of normative analysis: Conceptual blur in the rationality debate? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 686-687. [PDF]
1999
Spellman, B. A., & Mandel, D. R. (1999). When possibility informs reality: Counterfactual thinking as a cue to causality. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 8, 120-123. [PDF]
[Reprinted in: Spellman, B. A., & Willingham, D. T. (Eds). (2005). Current Directions in Cognitive Science: Readings from the American Psychological Society. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education / Prentice Hall.]
1998
Mandel, D. R. (1998). The obedience alibi: Milgram's account of the Holocaust reconsidered. Analyse & Kritik: Zeitschrift fur Sozialwissenschaften, 20, 74-94. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., & Lehman, D. R. (1998). Integration of contingency information in judgments of cause, covariation, and probability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 269-285. [PDF]
1997
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1996
Mandel, D. R., & Lehman, D. R. (1996). Counterfactual thinking and ascriptions of cause and preventability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 450-463. [PDF]
1995
Mandel, D. R. (1995). Chaos theory, sensitive dependence, and the logistic equation. American Psychologist, 50, 106-107. [PDF]
Mandel, D. R., Lehman, D. R., & Yuille, J. C. (1995). Reasoning about the removal of a child from home: A comparison of police officers and social workers. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 25, 906-921. [PDF]
1994
Mandel, D. R., Lehman, D. R., & Yuille, J. C. (1994). Should this child be removed from home? Hypothesis generation and information seeking as predictors of case decisions. Child Abuse & Neglect, 18, 1051-1062. [PDF]
Mill, D., Gray, T., & Mandel, D. R. (1994). The influence of research methods and statistics courses on everyday reasoning and belief in unsubstantiated phenomena. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 26, 246-258. [PDF]
1993
Lehman, D. R., Davis, C. G., DeLongis, A., Wortman, C. B., Bluck, S., Mandel, D. R., & Ellard, J. H. (1993). Positive and negative life changes following bereavement and their relations to adjustment. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 12, 90-112.
Mandel, D. R., Axelrod, L. J., & Lehman, D. R. (1993). Integrative complexity in reasoning about the Persian Gulf War and the accountability-to-skeptical-audience hypothesis. Journal of Social Issues, 49, 201-215.
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