Under review and not released as preprints (for preprints, see published papers)
Collins, R. N., & Mandel, D. R. A credibility paradox: Divergence of interpretation and evaluation of human and AI forecasts. DRDC Scientific Letter.
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. NATO experts' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of artificial intelligence in intelligence production.
Litovsky, Y., Konig-Kersting, C., Bohm, R., Grossmann, I., Huber, J., Kirchler, M., and WoCCAP Consortium. A many-designs study crowdsourcing 516 aggregation algorithms to increase the wisdom of crowds.
Ng, P., Walker, A., Collins, R. N., Fugelsang, J., Oakes, H., Walker, H., & Mandel, D. R. Judging my-side versus thy-side: Meta-forecasting accuracy predicts forecasting accuracy in the political domain.
In preparation
Collins, R. N., Nelson, J. D., & Mandel, D. R. Nonlinear constraint satisfaction for optimizing probability judgment ensembles. (journal)
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. Negative context reduces the discriminability of verbal probabilities. https://psyarxiv.com/ma7rb [needs revisions, but has been dormant for so long, I've put it here]
Levit, I., Gill, I., & Mandel, D.R. Exploring end-of-history illusion across multiple domains and time intervals [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Decoding of quantified probabilistic assessments: Further tests of the lower-bounding hypothesis [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Framing effects in risky choice and their commonly ignored linguistic bases: A replication of Mandel (2014, Experiment 3) [working title].
On the horizon
Something on framing effects in AI (with Jeremy Lichman, Carolyn Meinel, and Irina Levit)
Something on computing averages and products from verbal and imprecise numeric probabilities (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on the two-hospitals problem
Something on something else.