Under review and not released as preprints (for preprints, see published papers)
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. NATO experts' perceptions of the benefits and drawbacks of artificial intelligence in intelligence production.
Litovsky, Y., Konig-Kersting, C., Bohm, R., Grossmann, I., Huber, J., Kirchler, M., and WoCCAP Consortium. A many-designs study crowdsourcing 516 aggregation algorithms to increase the wisdom of crowds.
Ng, P., Walker, A., Collins, R. N., Fugelsang, J., Oakes, H., Walker, H., & Mandel, D. R. Knowing what they know: Meta-forecasts of political ingroups and outgroups predict political forecasting accuracy.
In preparation
Collins, R. N., Nelson, J. D., & Mandel, D. R. Nonlinear constraint satisfaction for optimizing probability judgment ensembles. (journal)
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. Negative context reduces the discriminability of verbal probabilities. https://psyarxiv.com/ma7rb [needs revisions, but has been dormant for so long, I've put it here]
Levit, I., Gill, I., & Mandel, D.R. Exploring end-of-history illusion across multiple domains and time intervals [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Decoding of quantified probabilistic assessments: Further tests of the lower-bounding hypothesis [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Framing effects in risky choice and their commonly ignored linguistic bases: A replication of Mandel (2014, Experiment 3) [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Antisemitism in the West after 10/7: A consequence of radicalization or normalization? [working title].
On the nearer horizon
Something on framing effects in AI (with Jeremy Lichman, Carolyn Meinel, and Irina Levit)
Something on interpreting probabilities delivered by humans or AI agents (with Robert Collins)
On the distant horizon
Something on computing averages and products from verbal and imprecise numeric probabilities (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on the two-hospitals problem
Something on something else.