Under review and not released as preprints (for preprints, see published papers)
Mandel, D. R. Promoting and evaluating intelligence assessment quality: A Meliorist perspective through an accountability lens. (journal)
In preparation
Collins, R. N., Nelson, J. D., & Mandel, D. R. Nonlinear constraint satisfaction for optimizing probability judgment ensembles. (journal)
Dhami, M. K., & Mandel, D. R. Negative context reduces the discriminability of verbal probabilities. https://psyarxiv.com/ma7rb [needs revisions, but has been dormant for so long, I've put it here]
Levit, I., Gill, I., & Mandel, D.R. Exploring end-of-history illusion across multiple domains and time intervals [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Decoding of quantified probabilistic assessments: Further tests of the lower-bounding hypothesis [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Framing effects in risky choice and their commonly ignored linguistic bases: A replication of Mandel (2014, Experiment 3) [working title].
Mandel, D.R., & Levit, I. Antisemitism in the West after 10/7: A consequence of radicalization or normalization? [working title].
On the nearer horizon
Something on framing effects in AI (with Jeremy Lichman, Carolyn Meinel, and Irina Levit)
Something on political forecasting (with Pearlyn Ng and others)
On the distant horizon
Something on computing averages and products from verbal and imprecise numeric probabilities (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on the two-hospitals problem
Something on interpreting probabilities delivered by humans or AI agents (with Robert Collins)
Something on intelligence professionals' assessments of AI impact on intelligence production (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on interventions to improve forecasting accuracy (with Robert Collins)
Something on something else.