Under review and not released as preprints (for preprints, see published papers)
In preparation
Collins, R. N., Nelson, J. D., & Mandel, D. R. Nonlinear constraint satisfaction for optimizing probability judgment ensembles. [working title] (journal)
Mandel, D. R. Can accountability explain the many ways of gauging intelligence quality? [working title] (journal)
On the nearer horizon
Something on the end of history illusion (with Irina Levit and Inderpreet Gill)
Something on framing effects and linguistic interpretation (with Irina Levit)
Something on the interpretation of quantifier/approximators (with Irina Levit)
Something on antisemitism and whether it's the result of normalization or radicalization.
Something on framing effects in AI (with Jeremy Lichman, Carolyn Meinel, and Irina Levit)
On the distant horizon
Something on computing averages and products from verbal and imprecise numeric probabilities (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on the two-hospitals problem
Something on interpreting probabilities delivered by humans or AI agents (with Robert Collins)
Something on intelligence professionals' assessments of AI impact on intelligence production (with Mandeep Dhami)
Something on interventions to improve forecasting accuracy (with Robert Collins)
Something on something else.