Professional BIO

Current positions: I am a senior scientist in the Intelligence Group of the Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section at DRDC, Toronto Research Centre, part of an agency of the Canadian government's Department of National Defence.  I am also a cross-appointed Professor of Psychology at University of Waterloo and York University. 

Prior positions: CEO and President of Cognimotive Consulting Inc., 2016-2021, a scientific consultancy which has advised clients such as McGill University, University of Melbourne, University of Pennsylvania, and Good Judgment Inc.; Adjunct Associate Professor of Psychology, 2004-2011, University of Toronto (St. George); Associate Professor of Psychology, 2001-2004, University of Victoria (tenured 2004); Senior Lecturer in Psychology, 1998-2001, University of Hertfordshire; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Psychology, 1996-98, Stanford University. 

Research interests. Descriptive, prescriptive, and normative issues in human judgment and decision-making. Some specific topics include the communication of uncertainty and probability; accuracy and coherence of probability judgments; framing effects on judgment and choice and, more generally, assumptions about representation in decision problems and how theorists go from the data to claims about human rationality. I am also interested in existential risk, the future of life, and the intersection of psychology and physics. 

Current projects: 

Primary Investigator, Department of National Defence S&T program on Anticipatory Intelligence [AC2I_019]. 

Recent projects: 

Primary Investigator, Canadian Safety and Security Program project on Decision Science for Superior Intelligence Production [CSSP-2018-TI-2394].

Co-investigator, Department of National Defence, Joint Intelligence Collection and Capability Project.

Co-investigator, Department of National Defence, Munitions and Non-munitions Integrated Effects Project. 

Consultant, University of Melbourne RepliCATS project for the DARPA Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) Program.

Consultant, University of Pennsylvania project for IARPA Forecasting Counterfactuals in Uncontrolled Settings (FOCUS) Program. 

Service:

On matters related to terrorism and political violence, I served as the Canadian representative on the NATO Technical Team of the Human Factors and Medicine Panel's Task Group 140 on Psychosocial, Organisational, and Cultural Aspects of Terrorism from 2006-2009 and have served as a subject matter expert on terrorism and counterterrorism to the U.S. Department of Defense. 

On intelligence-related matters, I lead the Anticipatory Intelligence Pillar in DRDC's S&T Intelligence program and I have served as the Chair of NATO System Analysis and Studies Panel Research Technical Group (SAS-114) on the Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making, which was awarded the NATO SAS Panel Excellence Award in 2020. I have advised The National Academies Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security and The National Academies Committee on Field Evaluation of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences-Based Methods and Tools for Intelligence and Counter-intelligence. I have also advised the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and its S&T organization, IARPA, as well as its contractors such as the Mitre Corporation and Good Judgment Inc. 

In 2022, I led (in conjunction with Jonas Clausen Mork of Sweden) a NATO SAS Panel Exploratory Team on Prediction and Intelligence (SAS-ET-FG) and, following on from that activity, I currently co-Chair with my Swedish counterpart a NATO SAS Panel Research Technical Group (SAS-189) on Anticipatory Intelligence for Superior Decision-Making. 

On the communication and assessment of risk and uncertainty, I have advised the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation, and I have addressed the public workshop on Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products. My presentation is available here at 24 minutes 22 seconds into the afternoon session. I have also advised the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Support to the Department of Defense’s Programs to Counter Biological Threats on this topic at the May 2014 workshop entitled, "Accelerating Availability of New Vaccines: Regulatory Evidence Requirements and Interim Options on the Pathway to Licensure."  

I have served on the editorial boards of Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, Basic and Applied Social Psychology, and Frontiers in Psychology (Cognition). I currently serve as Associate Editor for Judgment and Decision Making and as Consulting Editor for (a) Decision, (b) Futures and Foresight Science, and (c) Intelligence and National Security.  

Related to my interest in improving the quality of thinking and judgment behind intelligence analysis, I have co-taught a course on Judgment in Intelligence Analysis for Canadian intelligence professionals and periodically give guest lectures at the Canadian Forces School for Military Intelligence, the Canadian Forces College, and the Intelligence Analyst Learning Program under the Privy Council Office in the government of Canada. 

I am a signatory on the Future of Life Institute's Open Letter calling for a pause on giant AI experiments.