Publications (in English)

[1] Jiafu An, Shiqi Guo, Ruoran Zhao, “The Leverage of  on Democratic Regimes: Evidence from Natural Experiments in Sub-Saharan Africa” Journal of Law and Economics, Forthcoming. 

Comparing respondents surveyed just before and after a local terrorist attack, we find a significant drop in incumbent support, mainly driven by reduced trust in the incumbent party. The effect is strongest in states with weaker institutions, but a strong government response can help offset the backlash. 

[2] Jiafu An, Shiqi Guo, Haicheng Jiang, “Foreign-Assisted Infrastructure and Local Employment: Evidence from China’s Aid to Africa” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2025, 53(1): 118-138. 

Combining data on 360 Chinese ODA infrastructure projects with surveys of half a million residents in ten African countries, we find that employment increases at the start of construction—mainly benefiting less-educated individuals—and continues after completion, supported by the migration and employment of skilled workers. 

[3] Shiqi Guo, Nan Gao, Pinghan Liang, “Winter Is Coming: Early-life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions” The Economic Journal, 2024, 134: 295-321. 

Using biographical data on 2,806 county party secretaries in China, we find that greater early-life famine exposure is associated with stronger support for agricultural development in their jurisdictions: agricultural fiscal spending increases, while agricultural taxes decrease. This suggests they may develop lasting preferences for food security and concern for those facing hardship. 

[4] Shiqi Guo, Jiafu An. “Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment” Journal of Development Economics, 2022, 155: 102817. 

Using a quasi-experimental design in which respondents of a large-scale African survey were interviewed just before and after terrorist attacks in the same region, we show that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. Even low-casualty attacks significantly affect people’s beliefs. 

[5] Shiqi Guo, “How Does Straw Burning Affect Urban Air Quality in China?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2021, 103(3): 1122-1140. 

Based on 16,813 satellite-detected straw-burning fires across China from 2014 to 2016 and daily air pollution data from ground monitoring stations, I find that air pollution in urban areas increases by 6.5 points (9.4% of the mean) on the day after burning. The effect declines over time but remains significant for at least eight days, particularly for particulate matter. 

[6] Shiqi Guo, “The Legacy Effect of Unexploded Bombs on Educational Attainment in Laos” Journal of Development Economics, 2020, 147: 102527.

Exposure to unexploded ordnance (UXO) reduced education not only for wartime cohorts but also for postwar children—by up to 1.3 years two decades later. The main mechanism is reduced farming efficiency: UXO-contaminated farmland requires more cautious labor, leading families to withdraw children from school to help with agricultural work. 

[7]  Shiqi Guo, Pinghan Liang, Erte Xiao, “In-group bias in prisons” Games and Economic Behavior, 2020, 122: 328-340.

We conducted a field experiment in a Chinese prison where inmates could work for charity. Inmates showed both pro-social behavior and in-group favoritism: they increased effort when their work benefited a charity and exerted even more effort when the beneficiary was another prisoner. 

[8]   Pinghan Liang, Shiqi Guo, “Social Interactions, Internet Access, and Stock Market Participation: An Empirical Study in China” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2015, 43(4): 883-901.

Both social interaction and internet access can promote stock market participation by transmitting relevant information, but their effects are substitutes: the impact of internet access is smaller for more sociable households, and the effect of sociability is smaller for households with internet access. 

Publications (in Chinese)

[9] 胡涟漪, 盖庆恩, 朱喜, 郭士祺,“中国职业技能结构转型：任务内容的视角”《经济研究》2024,第1期. 

Based on the China Occupational Classification and the Modern Chinese Classification Dictionary, this study uses natural language processing to analyze occupational skill attributes. It constructs indices for abstract, routine, and social skills of Chinese occupations, then describes trends in labor market skill changes over time, across demographic groups, and spatial regions, summarizing patterns of structural transformation. 

[10] 李倩, 陈晓光, 郭士祺, 郁芸君,“大气污染协同治理的理论机制与经验证据”《经济研究》2022, 第2期, 144-159. 

Using the 2014 Yangtze River Delta air pollution collaboration as a quasi-natural experiment, this study finds that central government coordination led local governments to effectively control major pollution sources like straw burning, vehicles, and industry. This resulted in sustained air quality improvements, especially near provincial borders. 

[11] 郭士祺, 梁平汉,“社会互动、信息渠道与家庭股市参与——基于2011年中国家庭金融调查的实证研究”《经济研究》2014, 增1期, 116-131. 

 Selected Working Papers