With Daniel Aaronson, Scott Brave, Daniel W. Sacks, and Boyoung Seo.
Published in Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers 9, 2020: 59-76. https://cepr.org/node/390397
Previously distributed as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper, No. 2020-10.
Abstract: We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates and demonstrate their use within a broader forecasting framework for US economic activity.
The most recent version of the working paper is available as a pdf. (18 pages, 652 KB)
For a full list of papers in the FRB of Chicago Working Paper series go here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending March 21, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending March 28, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending April 4, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending April 11, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending April 18, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending April 25, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending May 2, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending May 9, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending May 16, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending May 23, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending May 30, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending June 6, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending June 13, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending June 20, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending June 27, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending July 4, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending July 11, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending July 18, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending July 25, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending August 1, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending August 8, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending August 15, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending August 22, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending August 29, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending September 5, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending September 12, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending September 19, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending September 26, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending October 3, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending October 10, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending October 17, 2020 are reported here.
The forecasts for the initial unemployment insurance claims week-ending October 24, 2020 are reported here.