With Scott Brave, and Michael Fogarty.
Published in Chicago Fed Letter No. 447, October 2020. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2020/447
Abstract: In this article, we examine the recovery from the recession that began with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. To do so, we present and discuss for the first time the results from a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive model called ALEX. This model uses 107 monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity to forecast the near-term path of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP).
The published article is available as a pdf. (5 pages, 210 KB)