Personal Reflections

Some personal reflections on my academic career: Life is a series of coincidences, and academic life is no exception.

"What do you think is human life like here or there?

It seems like a swan's traces on mud or on snow.

See the claw and nail prints by chance mud and snow bear.

Will the flying swan care what it has left below?"

(1) Admitted to the Doctoral Program

My undergraduate, master's, and even doctoral degrees were all in economics. As the poet Su Shi once said, 

"What do you think is human life like here or there?

It seems like a swan's traces on mud or on snow.

See the claw and nail prints by chance mud and snow bear.

Will the flying swan care what it has left below?"

It was purely by chance that I entered the field of Information Systems (IS). It has been eight years since I graduated with my Ph.D., and looking back, I can vividly recall the scene when I received the Ph.D. admission offer. During my master's studies, I was enrolled in the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University. At that time, pursuing a Ph.D. abroad was a natural choice, and more than half of my classmates planned to go abroad for their doctoral studies. I followed the trend and applied to the top 30 economics departments, including a few doctoral programs in business schools, based on the rankings from US News. 

Many of my CCER classmates who went abroad are now teaching in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, that is a story for another time. During the application process, the most anxious moment for everyone was waiting for Ph.D. admission offers, and the level of anxiety grew exponentially as time passed. Not even visiting the Temple of Sleeping Buddha (the pronunciation is similar to Offer Temple in Chinese) could alleviate it. Due to the time difference, offers often appeared in the email early in the morning. I remember that checking my email was the first thing I did every morning back then. To be honest, my application results were not ideal, and the only offer with financial aid was from UT Austin, so naturally, I ended up going there to pursue a Ph.D. in economics. At that time, I didn't know that UT Austin had a strong business school, particularly in the field of Information Systems. This accidental discovery led me to shift from economics to Information Systems, but again, it was purely by chance and not part of my initial plan. Another unexpected turn was that my wife would be a classmate in my Ph.D. program (both my wife and I graduated from Peking University with master's degrees, but she was from the Guanghua School of Management, while I was from the Center for Economic Research). We met before starting our Ph.D. studies at UT Austin, but we hadn't begun dating at that time. Perhaps it is true that the most wonderful moments in life are often unplanned. Because both life and academic careers are composed of a series of coincidences, the assistance of others becomes even more important. Without their help, the coincidences would have been different, and my academic career and life path would have been entirely different.

Written on May 6, 2022

• （一）被博士项目录取：人生到处如何似？应似飞鸿踏雪泥                      

我的本科，硕士，直到博士读的都是经济学。如同苏轼诗中所说：“人生到处如何似？应似飞鸿踏雪泥。泥上偶然留指爪，鸿飞那复计东西，“ 我踏入信息系统（Information Systems, IS）领域，实属偶然。现在离博士毕业已有八年，蓦然回首，当初拿到 offer 的情景还历历在目。硕士时候，就读的是北京大学中国经济研究中心（CCER）。而在当时，出国读博是自然的选择，班上一半多的同学都会选择出国读博。而我也是随大流，按照 US news 的排名申请了前30的经济系，也包括少量商学院的博士项目。当时和我一起出国的 CCER 的同学现在大多在北美，亚洲，和欧洲执教。当然这都是后话，申请的时候，大家最焦急的就是等待 offer，而且焦虑指数随着时间的流逝，而成指数级增长，就连去卧佛寺也缓解不了。因为时差关系，offer 往往是清早出现在电子邮箱里的，所以记得当时每天早上的第一件事就是查邮件。平心而论，我申请的成绩不太理想，唯一有 financial aid 的 offer 就是 UT Austin，所以自然也就只能去 UT Austin 读经济学的博士了。当时的我还不知道，UT Austin 有很强的商学院，信息系统领域更是出类拔萃。这成为了我由经济学转向信息系统的近水楼台，不过这点又纯属偶然，不在我的计划之内。我没想到的另一点是，我的太太会是我的博士班的同学（我和我太太都是北大硕士毕业，不过她在光华管理学院，我在经济中心。在 UT Austin 读博之前，我们就认识，但是那时还没有开始 dating)。也许无巧不成书正是人生的精彩之处吧。正因为人生和学术生涯都是由一连串偶然构成的，旁人的帮助更显得重要：如果缺少了他们的帮助，偶然便会不同，我的学术生涯和人生路径也会迥然不同。

写于2022年5月6日

(2) My Master's Advisor, Professor Wu

On my academic journey, I was fortunate to encounter several excellent mentors. Professor Xiangrong Jin at Zhejiang University was my mentor in economics, while Professor Qiren Zhou, Professor Dingding  Wang, Professor Chia-Shang Chu, and Professor Yifu (Justin) Lin at Peking University greatly enriched my knowledge (during my time at Zhejiang University, I had the privilege of taking courses by Professor Qiren Zhou and Professor Dingding Wang). Before pursuing my Ph.D., the most influential figure on my academic path was my master's advisor, Professor Ho-Mou Wu. Having earned his Ph.D. from Stanford and studied under Mordecai Kurz and Kenneth Arrow, Professor Wu had profound expertise in industrial organization, game theory, and financial economics. By chance, I had already taken one of Professor Wu's courses before starting my master's at Peking University. During my undergraduate studies at Zhejiang University, Professor Wu taught a course on game theory as a visiting professor. It was this course that sparked my strong interest in the application of game theory and became a crucial coincidence in my academic journey (I remember that Professor Wu only taught this course once at Zhejiang University). 

In my final year of undergraduate studies, I participated in the summer camp at CCER, Peking University, with the hope of securing admission to their master's program. The camp required presenting a paper in front of CCER faculty members, and my chosen topic was the application of game theory in mutual financial organizations. This paper, from its topic to methodology, was inspired by Professor Wu's course on game theory. Additionally, during my Ph.D. studies at UT Austin, game theory became one of the two main fields I focused on.

After successfully securing admission to CCER for my master's, another significant coincidence occurred for me. Professor Wu left his position at National Taiwan University and officially joined CCER at Peking University as a faculty member. Naturally, I hoped to choose him as my advisor. I remember there were many students who wanted him as their advisor, and luckily, I became his student. The weekly group meetings at that time marked the beginning of my systematic academic reading and writing. We would present the latest working papers in industrial organization and financial economics during these meetings, and later, we would present our own papers. Under Professor Wu's guidance, I began researching the impact of higher-order beliefs on financial markets, which was also my first time writing a paper in English. I remember the densely packed revisions by Professor Wu on the printed initial draft, but unfortunately, the whereabouts of that draft have been lost due to several moves. This paper not only served as my master's thesis but also held two other significances for my academic career. First, due to the natural similarity between financial markets and prediction markets, the papers I studied on heterogeneous beliefs in financial markets during my master's studies, as well as the experience of writing my master's thesis, laid the foundation for my subsequent research on prediction markets. Second, this higher-order beliefs paper became an opportunity for me to become a student of Andy (my Ph.D. advisor, Andrew Whinston) at UT Austin. In my academic journey, a series of new coincidences were brewing.

Written on May 7, 2022

• （二）我的硕士导师巫老师

在我的求学路上，幸运的遇到了不少良师。浙大的金祥荣老师是我的经济学启蒙老师，北大的周其仁老师，汪丁丁老师，朱家祥老师，和林毅夫老师的课也让我获益良多（在浙大的时候，就有幸修读了周其仁老师和汪丁丁老师的课）。在读博士之前，对我的学术道路影响最大的是我硕士的导师巫和懋老师。巫老师从 Stanford 博士毕业，师从 Mordecai Kurz 和 Kenneth Arrow，对产业组织，博弈论，和金融经济学，都有很深的造诣。有缘的是在去北大读硕士之前，我已经修读了巫老师的课。在浙大读本科的时候，巫老师作为客座教授开了一门本科生的博弈论。正是这门课，让我对博弈论的应用产生了浓厚的兴趣，是我学术道路上一个非常重要的偶然（记得巫老师好像只在浙大开了一次课）。本科的最后一年，我参加了北大 CCER 的夏令营，希望获得保送读硕士的资格。夏令营的要求是在 CCER 的老师面前 present 一篇自己的习作。而我当时的选题就是博弈论在互助金融组织中的应用。这篇习作从选题到方法，都受到巫老师的博弈论课的启发。另外，我在 UT Austin 读博的时候，博弈论也成了我修读的两个主要 fields 之一。

我成功保送到 CCER 读研以后，对我而言，又出现了一个重要的偶然。巫老师辞去台湾大学的教职，正式来北大 CCER 任教。顺理成章，我非常希望选择他作为我的导师。记得当时想选他做导师的学生很多，我幸运的成为了他的学生。当时每周一次的组会，让我开始了系统的学术阅读和学术写作。我们在组会上 present 最新的产业组织和金融经济学的工作论文，后来也会 present 自己的习作。在巫老师的指导下，我开始研究 higher order beliefs 对金融市场的影响，这也是我第一次用英语写论文。记得打印出来的初稿上，有巫老师密密麻麻的修改，可惜几次搬家，论文的初稿早已不知去向。这不仅仅是我的硕士论文，对于我的学术生涯还有另外两重意义。首先，由于金融市场和 prediction market 的天然相似性，硕士阶段研读的各种关于金融市场异质信念的论文以及写硕士论文的经验是我日后开展一系列 prediction market 研究的起点。其次，这篇 higher order beliefs 的文章也是我在 UT Austin 成为 Andy (我的博士导师 Andrew Whinston) 学生的一个契机。在我的学术道路上，一系列新的偶然又在酝酿。

写于2022年5月7日

(3) First Year of Ph.D. Program

The first year of the Ph.D. program was quite enjoyable, and I quickly adapted to studying and living at UT Austin while making many new friends. Austin is a very livable city, and in 2009, the cost of living was still relatively low, with a good number of Chinese restaurants available. During the first year of the Ph.D. program, my focus was on economics, and I had never imagined that I would later enter the field of information systems (in fact, I didn't even know about this field at the time). Unlike the Ph.D. program in business schools, the first year of the economics Ph.D. program was entirely dedicated to coursework with no research involvement. There were many courses to take, including Advanced Microeconomics I and II, Advanced Macroeconomics I and II, Advanced Econometrics I and II, Mathematical Statistics, and Mathematical Economics. Each course was rigorous, with a significant amount of homework and three exams. Many classmates in the Ph.D. program complained about the frequent exams and assignments. In comparison, I seemed to handle them with ease, primarily due to the rigorous training I received during my master's program at CCER in Peking University. The master's program at CCER was modeled after the U.S. standard for economics Ph.D. programs, with identical course offerings and even similar textbooks (the difficulty and intensity of exams and assignments were also very similar). So, when I arrived in the United States, it felt like I was essentially relearning the courses, which made it relatively easier. Of course, this process itself was very beneficial and deepened my understanding of economics.

One major difference between the economics Ph.D. program and the business school Ph.D. program is the qualifying exams. Business school Ph.D. programs admit very few doctoral students, and the qualifying exams rarely eliminate students. The economics Ph.D. program follows a completely different business model and admits a large number of students, but the end-of-first-year qualifying exams eliminate nearly half of the students. For example, in our Ph.D. cohort, we had over 20 classmates in the first year, but less than 10 graduated. I don't have enough expertise to judge which model is superior or inferior, but personally, I found it difficult to accept the ruthless elimination mechanism of the Chicago economic tradition. Thanks to my rigorous training at CCER, I successfully passed the qualifying exams.

Because I felt comfortable with the coursework and qualifying exams in the first year, I continued to devote my time to the research on higher order beliefs in collaboration with Professor Wu. We submitted the paper to the Econometric Society World Congress, and it was accepted for presentation at the conference. In the summer of my first year in the Ph.D. program (summer 2010), I was scheduled to present this paper at the conference. Apparently, the department attached great importance to this conference and, unusually, provided me with a $1,000 travel fund. This was my first time attending a conference, and it was during this conference that another fortuitous encounter happened: I met Huaxia Rui, Andy's student and my future academic brother. Later, Huaxia introduced me to Andy, and I became Andy's student. Of course, these are stories for later.

Written on May 8, 2022

• （三）博士班第一年

博士班的第一年是相当惬意的，我很快适应了在 UT Austin 的学习和生活，结识了很多新的朋友。Austin 是一个非常适宜居住的城市，2009年的时候生活成本还很低，不错的中餐馆也挺多。在博士班的第一年里，我专注于经济学，从来没有想过以后会进入信息系统领域（甚至当时还不知道这个领域）。 与商学院的博士项目不同，经济学博士项目的第一年完全集中在修读课程上，几乎没有一点研究。上的课程很多，有高级微观一、二，高级宏观一、二，高级计量一、二，数理统计，和数理经济学。每门课都非常扎实，有大量作业和三次考试。博士班里的很多同学都抱怨频繁的考试和作业。比较而言，我显得游刃有余。主要得益于在北大 CCER 硕士阶段的严格训练。CCER 的硕士项目完全仿照美国标准的经济学博士项目，课程设置一模一样，就连所用的教科书也大致相同（考试和作业的难度和强度也非常类似）。所以到了美国后，我的感觉基本就是把课程重新再学一遍，相对轻松。当然这个过程本身还是很有益的，对经济学的理解大大加深。

经济学博士项目与商学院博士项目还有一个重大的不同，就是博士资格考（qualifying exams)。商学院博士项目招的博士生很少，一般博士资格考也很少会淘汰博士生。经济学博士项目的 business model 完全不同，会招很多博士生，而第一年末的博士资格考会淘汰近一半的博士生。比如我们的博士班第一年有20多名同学，毕业的时候不到10人。这两种模式孰优孰劣，我没有足够的能力去评判，不过从个人情感上说，Chicago 经济学传统的残酷的淘汰机制，我是很难接受的。同样是得益于我在 CCER 的基础，我的博士资格考顺利过关。

正因为第一年在课程和资格考试上游刃有余，我继续把时间投入到与巫老师合作的 higher order beliefs 的研究中。我们把文章投到了 Econometric Society World Congress。最后，文章被这个会议接受了，而我也要在博士班第一年暑假（2010年夏天），要去会议上 present 这篇文章。显然系里对这个会议比较重视，破天荒的给了我1000美元的 travel fund。这是我第一次参加会议，也正是这次会议，让另一个偶然发生：我遇到了 Andy 的学生，我后来的师兄芮华夏。之后，华夏把我介绍给 Andy，我也成为了 Andy 的学生。当然，这些都是后话了。

写于2022年5月8日

(4) Huaxia, a Mentor and Friend

Huaxia Rui is my academic brother, graduating two years ahead of me, and currently teaching at the University of Rochester. Meeting Huaxia was also a fortuitous event. Our first encounter was not at UT Austin but in Shanghai. As mentioned earlier, my paper with Professor Wu was accepted by the Econometric Society World Congress (ESWC), which happened to be held in Shanghai that year. So, in the summer of 2010, I planned to return to China to present at the conference. Huaxia also had a paper to present at the same conference. However, based on my habits at the time, it was challenging to get to know Huaxia. I was unaware of the social aspect of attending conferences, so I would typically present my paper, attend a few sessions of my interest, and consider it done without paying much attention to socializing with others. Recognizing my shortcomings at the time, I have always emphasized to my own Ph.D. students the importance of dedicating at least 50% of their time at conferences to socializing. What led to my acquaintance with Huaxia was an email he sent me on July 19, 2010 (yes, I can still find that email in my inbox). In the email, Huaxia mentioned seeing that I would be presenting at ESWC and suggested that since we were both at UT Austin, we should get to know each other at the conference. So, I went to the venue and had a lengthy conversation with Huaxia. He mentioned a series of research projects he and Andy were working on, which I found fascinating and opened up a new world for me. At that time, I didn't know that those were studies in the field of information systems, and Huaxia's presentation at the conference was also on research in financial economics (later published in the Journal of Financial Economics). However, at that moment, I asked Huaxia to help me get in touch with Andy so that when I returned to the United States, I could have a discussion with him about research. Eventually, this conversation led me, by chance, into the field of information systems.

During my Ph.D. studies, besides Andy, the person who had the greatest influence on my academic path was Huaxia. We collaborated on a total of four papers, from my earliest prediction market series to my job market paper, "WiFi Auction," and we were deeply involved in each of them. It is difficult to find a scholar who excels in both analytical modeling and empirical research as he does. I have learned a lot from him and continue to benefit from his teachings to this day.

Written on May 8, 2022

• （四）亦师亦友的华夏

芮华夏是我的师兄，早我两年毕业，现在 University of Rochester 执教。认识华夏也是一个偶然。我们第一次见面不是在 UT Austin, 而是在上海。正如前面所说，因为我和巫老师的文章被 Econometric Society World Congress (ESWC) 接受了，而那一年的会议是在上海召开，所以2010年的夏天，我准备回国去 present。华夏也有一篇论文要在同一个会议上 present。虽然如此，但是按照我当时开会的习惯，其实是很难认识华夏的。当时我对开会 social 的功能一无所知，所以基本就是讲完自己的 paper，然后听几个自己感兴趣的 session，就算结束了，根本不会注意和别人 social。正是因为认识到当时的不足，现在对我的博士生，我一直强调，开会至少要准备 50% 的时间去 social。促成我和华夏认识的是他在2010年7月19日发给我的一封邮件（是的，我在电子邮箱里还能找到这封邮件）。在邮件里，华夏说看到我会在 ESWC 上 present。因为我们都在 UT Austin, 大家应该在会上互相认识一下。于是，我就去会场与华夏聊了很久。他提到了他和 Andy 的一系列研究，我都觉得很有趣，对我来讲是打开了一个新天地。当然那时，我还不知道这些是信息系统领域的研究，而华夏在会上 present 的也是偏金融经济学的研究（后来发表在 Journal of Financial Economics上）。不过，当时我就请华夏帮我联系 Andy，等我回美国以后可以和 Andy 一起聊聊研究。后来，这一聊就把我偶然的带入了信息系统领域。

在读博阶段，对我的学术道路影响最大的，除了 Andy，就是华夏了。我和华夏一共合作了四篇论文，从我最早的 prediction market 系列一直到我的 job market paper, WiFi Auction，每一篇论文，我们都深度参与。很难找到像他那样 analytical modeling 和 empirical research 都做得非常好的学者。从他身上，我学到很多，一直受益至今。

写于2022年5月8日

(5) First Meeting with Andy

In the Fall of 2010, introduced by Huaxia, I went to the Center to meet Andy (the Center was the base for Andy and his students, and later I also had a small office there). Meeting Andy for the first time naturally made me very nervous, and I have forgotten the specifics of our conversation. The only thing I remember is that he gave me a printed working paper (authored by Yiling Chen from Harvard) and asked me to read it and see if I found it interesting. He also suggested that I present that paper to him the next time we met. The paper was about prediction markets, a concept I was unfamiliar with at the time, but I quickly became fascinated by it and delved into related literature. In fact, prediction markets are closely related to information aggregation in economics and finance, which is also connected to my collaboration with Professor Wu on higher-order beliefs in financial markets. Later, after several discussions with Andy, we realized that prediction market literature assumed participants were making predictions independently, which might not hold true in the prevalence of social media and social networks. Moreover, the structure of social networks could potentially influence participants' predictions and consequently affect the overall predictive performance of the prediction market. Following this line of thought, Andy, Huaxia, and I began conceptualizing our series of research on social media-based prediction markets. At that time, we had a great opportunity to showcase our idea to the industry. Austin hosts a prominent technology event called SXSW every March, and, for example, Twitter was first introduced to the public at SXSW. We were thrilled to have the chance to present our idea at SXSW 2011 and received many interesting suggestions from the industry, which proved to be very helpful.

Since the articles I collaborated with Andy on were progressing smoothly, I wanted to choose Andy as my advisor. At the time, although Andy was a professor in the business school, he also held joint appointments in the economics department and the computer science department. This meant that I didn't need to switch departments to choose Andy as my dissertation committee chair. So, I ultimately selected Andy as my Ph.D. advisor and ventured into the field of information systems. However, for convenience, I continued pursuing my Ph.D. degree in economics and did not transfer to the business school. Andy's style was to go to the Center from Monday to Friday and also on Sundays. He would have brief chats with students every day, ranging from a few minutes to an hour, depending on the progress of the research. I also went to the Center six days a week, which gave me ample time to chat with Andy, and our collaborative papers progressed rapidly. There was a period when every two to three days, Andy would ask me to briefly present the latest articles in economics or information systems. Looking back, that was the time when I made the most progress. Now, I also have my own Ph.D. students, but I feel it's challenging to replicate Andy's experience, as it's difficult to have six interactions with students every week. However, I strive to communicate with my students at least once a week and, if necessary, we can have multiple meetings.

Written on May 9, 2022

• （五）初见 Andy

2010年秋天，我在华夏的引见下，去 Center 见 Andy（Center 是 Andy 和他的学生们的基地，后来我也在 center 有一小间办公室）。第一次见 Andy，自然非常紧张，聊天的具体内容我都忘记了，唯一记得的是他给了我一篇打印好的工作论文（作者是 Harvard 的 Yiling Chen），让我回去看看感不感兴趣，同时下次见面的时候向他 present 这篇文章。这篇文章是关于 prediction market 的，我之前对这个概念相当陌生，但很快被它吸引住了，还翻出了很多相关文献。实际上，prediction market 与经济学和金融学里的 Information Aggregation 密切相关，也与我和巫老师合作的 higher order beliefs in financial markets 大有关系。后来，我和 Andy 又讨论了几次，发现 prediction market 的文献都假设了参与者是独立做出预测的，而这一点在 social media 和 social networks 盛行的情况下未必成立。更有趣的是 social network 的结构可能会影响参与者的预测，进而影响到 prediction market 的整体预测绩效。顺着这条思路，我和 Andy 还有华夏开始构思我们一系列关于 social media based prediction markets 的研究。这时我们得到一个很好的机会向工业界展示我们这个想法。Austin 每年3月有一个科技界的盛会 SXSW，比如 Twitter 最早就是在 SXSW 向公众展示的。当时，我和华夏很开心可以有机会在 2011年 SXSW 上 present 我们的想法，收到了工业界很多有趣的建议，非常有帮助。

由于跟 Andy 合作的文章进展的比较顺利，所以我想选 Andy 为我的导师。当时 Andy 虽然是商学院的教授，但他也同时是经济系和计算机系的兼职教授，这意味着我并不需要转系，就可以选择 Andy 做我的 dissertation committee chair。所以，我最终选择了 Andy 做我的博士论文导师，踏进了信息系统领域。但是为了方便，我继续在经济系修读博士学位，并没有转入商学院。Andy 的风格是周一到周五再加上周日，都会去 center，每天都会跟学生简单的聊一聊，短则十几分钟，长则一个小时，取决于文章的进展情况。我每周也是去 center 六天，这使得我和 Andy 有非常多的时间聊天，合作的文章进展得也比较快。有一段时间，Andy 每过两三天就会让我简单的 present 一篇最新的经济学或信息系统领域的文章，回头来看，我进步最快的也就是这段时间。现在，我自己也带博士生了，总感觉无法重复 Andy 的经验，很难有时间一周与学生交流六次。不过，我也会尽量做到每周至少交流一次，如果有需要，可以多次见面。

写于2022年5月9日

(6) Andy's Anecdotes

Since I had six chats with Andy every week, our conversations covered a wide range of topics. In addition to project progress, we discussed academic history, as well as movies and TV shows (such as Downton Abbey). Even now, every three or four weeks, Andy would call to discuss recent research projects, and we would exchange insights on stock market investments. Similar to me, Andy could be considered as someone who transitioned from economics to the field of information systems. His first job was in the Economics department at Yale (of course, in the 1960s, the field of information systems had not yet taken shape, and Andy was involved in its creation and development). Among his students, there were also notable figures in the field of economics, such as Preston McAfee. Preston McAfee is an expert in auctions and has served as the President of the American Economic Association (AEA) and the Chair of the Economics department at UT Austin (during my Ph.D. study, Preston McAfee came back to UT Austin to give a talk). Andy's early work in economics focused on cooperative games and optimization problems, and he has published in the top five economics journals. The ideas from this early work have been applied in our recent articles. Andy's connection to economics goes beyond that; his cousin, Michael Whinston, is one of the authors of the famous MWG (Microeconomic Theory) textbook.

In Andy's 60-year career, he has had numerous successful students. The Mathematics Genealogy Project alone records 108 Ph.D. students, and there are many more who are not included in this record. In 2015, a celebration of Andy's career was held at WISE/WITS at UT Dallas, where his academic journey was reviewed, including the process of founding the journal DSS and the Center.

Written on May 13, 2022

• （六）Andy 的趣事

因为每周和 Andy 聊六次，所以聊天的内容无所不包，除了项目的进展，还有学界的往事甚至电影和电视剧（比如唐顿庄园）。直到现在，每隔三、四周，Andy 都会打电话来聊聊最近的研究项目，我们也会交换股票市场投资的心得。与我类似，Andy 也可以说是从经济学转向了信息系统领域：他的第一份工作在 Yale 的 经济系 （当然，在60年代，信息系统领域尚未成型，Andy 参与了整个领域的创建和发展），他的学生中也有经济学领域的大家，比如 Preston McAfee。Preston McAfee 是 Auction 方面的巨匠，曾是 AEA 的主席和 UT Austin 经济系的系主任 （我读博士的时候，Preston McAfee 有回 UT Austin 给过 talk）。Andy 早期在经济学中的主要工作是合作博弈和优化问题，经济学期刊的 top five，他也全部发过。这些早期的思想在我和 Andy 最近的文章中都有应用。Andy 和经济学的渊源还不止于此，他的一个 cousin, Michael Whinston，就是著名的 MWG （最流行的微观理论教科书）中的作者 W。

Andy 入行60年来，桃李满天下，单单 Mathematics Genealogy Project 记录的博士生已经有108个，还有很多不在这个记录之内的。2015年在 UT Dallas 召开的 WISE/WITS上举办了一个 Andy 的庆祝会，回顾了他的学术生涯，包括创办期刊 DSS 和 Center 的过程。

写于2022年5月13日

(7) Second Year of Ph.D. Program

In the second year of the economics Ph.D. program, I had to choose two fields and take field courses. Due to my interest in game theory, I chose game theory as my first field. As for the second field, I noticed the similarities between research in information systems and industrial organization (IO) theory in economics. Therefore, I selected industrial organization as my second field. In the area of game theory, I took two different game theory courses taught by Max Stinchcombe and Tom Wiseman. Later, I also took a course on Mechanism Design. Max Stinchcombe is a brilliant scholar, but his lectures were quite challenging to follow due to their leaps in logic. Tom Wiseman's lectures were very clear, and he explained each step of the model derivations thoroughly (which reminded me of the clarity of Professor Hongbin Cai's lectures on Information Economics and Professor Liutang Gong's lectures on Dynamic Optimization when I was pursuing my master's degree). Tom's discussions on Network Games and Observational Learning were particularly inspiring for my later research on social media-based prediction markets and observational learning in social networks. Later on, both Max and Tom became members of my dissertation committee. In the field of industrial organization, I took two courses. The first course covered structural models in industrial organization, focusing on the empirical estimation of single-agent optimization problems. The second course was divided into two parts: the first half covered empirical estimation of dynamic games in structural models, and the second half focused on theoretical models in industrial organization, with an emphasis on two-sided platforms. Soon after completing these courses, I realized that structural estimation had also gained popularity in the field of information systems, which made me feel a strong connection and strengthened my determination to switch to the field of information systems.

At the end of the second year of the Ph.D. program, we were required to submit a second-year paper as an assessment. The department's policy was for each Ph.D. student to submit an initial draft of their second-year paper, and then the department would provide an anonymous review report written by faculty members in relevant fields, simulating a journal review process. We would revise our papers based on the review reports and submit the final versions. I always felt that this policy was beneficial to me. As I was particularly interested in Network Games from Tom Wiseman's course, I attempted to apply Network Games to the problems I was interested in. At this time, I had already started researching prediction markets under Andy's guidance, and we were also interested in integrating social media and social networks into prediction markets, but we didn't have a handy tool for it. The emergence of Network Games provided that handy tool, which became another serendipitous event in my academic journey. In my second-year paper, I applied Network Games to prediction markets and constructed a game-theoretic model. The anonymous reviewing faculty showed great interest in this model and provided many constructive comments (although to this day, I don't know who the anonymous reviewers were, but I suspect it was Tom Wiseman). Finally, I submitted the revised second-year paper: "Information Acquisition and Exchange in Social Networks." In this paper, I developed a game-theoretic framework for information exchange in social networks and discussed one particular application: Network-Embedded Prediction Markets, especially the impact of different social network structures on the prediction performance of markets. It also served as the theoretical foundation for my 2014 publication in JMIS titled "Effects of Social Networks on Prediction Markets: Examination in a Controlled Experiment."

I found the anonymous review report for that second-year paper from back then. Here is the first paragraph:

”This paper uses the framework of social networks to examine the incentives to acquire independent information. The social network (i.e. links between agents) is taken as exogenous, and information acquired independently is assumed to be transmitted immediately and truthfully to all direct neighbors. The author derives formal results on the extent of the free-rider problem in this framework. To potentially mitigate the free-rider problem, the author adds a prediction market to the model. Agent-based simulations are employed to show how the prediction market improves efficiency. Overall, the paper is well-written and satisfies the criteria for a second-year paper.“

Written on May 15, 2022

• （七）博士班二年级

在经济系的博士班二年级，我需要选择两个 fields，修 field courses。由于我一直对 game theory 比较感兴趣，所以我选择了 game theory 作为我的第一个 field。至于第二个 field，因为我看到很多信息系统的研究和经济学中的产业组织（IO）理论很类似，所以我选择了产业组织作为我的第二个 field。在 game theory 方面，我先后修读了 Max Stinchcombe 和 Tom Wiseman 的两门不同方面的 game theory 课程，后来又修了一门 Mechanism Design。Max Stinchcombe 是一位天才的学者，不过上课跳跃性很大，我很难完全跟得上他的思路。Tom Wiseman 的课上得非常清晰，模型的每一步推导都解释得很透彻（让我想起了读硕士时在光华上蔡洪滨老师的信息经济学和龚六堂老师的动态优化，他们都讲的非常清楚）。Tom 课上讲的 Network Game 和 Observational Learning 对我后来关于 social media based prediction market 和 observational learning in social networks 的研究都很有启发。后来，Max 和 Tom 也都是我的 dissertation committee members。在 IO 方面，我修了两门课，第一门讲业组织里的 structual model，主要集中在 single agent optimization problems 的实证估计。第二门课分两部分，前半部分讲 structual model 中 dynamic game 的实证估计，后半部分讲产业组织里的理论模型，主要集中在 two-sided platforms 上。刚上完这些课，就发现信息系统领域里也掀起了 structual estimation 的热潮，让我觉得格外亲切，也坚定了我转向信息系统领域的决心。

博士班第二年末需要提交一篇 second year paper 作为考核。系里的制度是每一个博士生提交一篇 second year paper 的初稿，然后系里会找相关领域的老师模仿期刊评审写一篇匿名的审稿报告。我们会根据审稿报告进行修改，提交最终版本。我一直觉得这一制度很好，让我受益良多。因为在 Tom Wiseman 的课上，我对 Network Game 非常感兴趣，所以我尝试着把 Network Game 应用到我感兴趣的问题上。这时，我已经在 Andy 的指导下开始研究 prediction market 了，我们也想尝试着把 social media 和 social network 融入到 prediction market 中，但还没有顺手的工具。而 Network Game 的出现，正好提供了这个顺手的工具，这也成了我学术道路上的另一个偶然。在 second year paper 里，我把 Network Game 应用到 prediction market 中，构建了一个 game-theoretic model。匿名评审的老师对这个模型也很感兴趣，提出了很多建设性的评论（虽然至今我也不知道匿名评审的老师是谁，但我猜测是 Tom Wiseman）。最后，我提交了修改后的 second year paper: Information Acquisition and Exchange in Social Networks。在这篇文章里，我建立了一个 social network 下信息交换的博弈理论框架，并讨论了其中的一个 application: Network-Embedded Prediction Market，尤其是不同 social network structures 对 prediction market 的预测绩效的影响。它也成为了我2014年在 JMIS 上发表的文章 "Effects of Social Networks on Prediction Markets: Examination in a Controlled Experiment“ 的理论部分的雏形。

我找出了当年 second year paper 的匿名审稿报告，这是其中的第一段：

”This paper uses the framework of social networks to examine the incentives to acquire independent information. The social network (i.e. links between agents) is taken as exogenous, and information acquired independently is assumed to be transmitted immediately and truthfully to all direct neighbors. The author derives formal results on the extent of the free-rider problem in this framework. To potentially mitigate the free-rider problem, the author adds a prediction market to the model. Agent-based simulations are employed to show how the prediction market improves efficiency. Overall, the paper is well-written and satisfies the criteria for a second-year paper.“

写于2022年5月15日

(8) First Attendance at IS Conference

In December 2011, I attended the ICIS conference, my first major conference in the field of information systems. Of course, this was not my first academic conference experience. As mentioned before, I attended ESWC in the summer of 2010. Then, in the summer of 2011, I also participated in the Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting held in St. Louis, where I presented my second-year paper. That conference was hosted by the Economics Department of Washington University in St. Louis. At that time, my CCER classmate Feng Dong (now a professor at Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management) was pursuing his Ph.D. at Washington University in St. Louis, and he happened to be back in China, so I stayed in the apartment he rented. I also met another CCER classmate, Wei Wang (now a professor at the University of International Business and Economics).

To get back on track, in December 2011, ICIS was held in Shanghai, at the same venue as the ESWC conference I attended in 2010, which was the Shanghai International Convention Center. It was quite a coincidence. At that time, Huaxia was also on the job market, and we shared a hotel room. The paper I presented at ICIS was a Twitter-based prediction market, co-authored by me, Huaxia, and Andy. It was an application of the theory from my second-year paper. Since I didn't have much experience with presentations, I was very nervous. I remember being in the same session as Lynn Wu from Wharton, and she gave an excellent presentation. I learned a lot from her. As it was my first time attending an IS conference, I focused all my energy on the presentation and didn't have much time for socializing (which is something I now consider a big mistake when it comes to conferences). Fortunately, Andy organized a gathering for his students, and I got to know many academic siblings. After ICIS, I also attended the Chinese Economics Annual Conference. I submitted my second-year paper to that conference, which happened to be held at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. It was efficient to attend two conferences during one trip to Shanghai.

Written on May 17, 2022

• （八）第一次参见 IS 会议

在2011年12月，我第一次参加信息系统领域的大会 ICIS。当然，这不是我第一次参加学术会议。之前说过，我在2010年夏天参加了 ESWC。之后，在2011年夏天，我还参加了在 St. Louis 召开的 Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting，present 了我的 second year paper。那次会议是由 Washington University in St. Louis 的经济系主办的。当时，我 CCER 的同学董丰（现在清华经管执教）正在 Washington University in St. Louis 读博士，而他又正好回国，所以我就住在他租的公寓里。同时，还见到了我 CCER 的另一名同学王暐（现在对外经贸执教）。

言归正传，2011年12月的 ICIS 在上海举办，和我2010年参加的 ESWC 是同一个会址，都是上海国际会展中心，也算是个巧合。那时正好华夏上 job market，我跟他 share 一个旅馆房间。我在 ICIS 上 present 的文章是我和华夏还有 Andy 合写的 Twitter-based prediction market，是我的 second year paper 里的理论的一个应用。当时没有太多的 presentation 经验，所以非常紧张。记得和我同在一个 session 的是 Wharton 的 Lynn Wu，她 present 得非常好，我学到了很多东西。第一次参加 IS 的会议，我把全部精力都放到了 presentation 上，自然无暇 social （这也是现在我对我的博士生所说的开会的大忌）。好在 Andy 召集门下弟子聚餐，我也认识了不少师兄师姐。ICIS 结束以后，我又转战中国经济学年会。当时，我把我的 second year paper 投到了年会，而年会恰好在上海财经大学举行。我去上海一次，可以参加两个会议，自然感到非常高效。

写于2022年5月17日

(9) Experimental Economics

In my second-year paper, I completed the game theory model for the social network-based prediction market. However, I always wanted to find some empirical evidence to test the theoretical model. During my undergraduate years at Zhejiang University, I took Professor Qiren Zhou's course on New Institutional Economics. In that class, Professor Zhou emphasized the difference between real-world economics and chalkboard economics and recommended Steven Cheung's "Economic Explanations." With great enthusiasm, I finished reading all three volumes of "Economic Explanations" and found it captivating to explore the real world. In the past two years, a new five-volume edition of "Economic Explanations" was released, and I bought it to revisit the feeling of the past. To validate the theoretical model with real-world evidence, I decided to leverage experimental economics.

At the time, I was in the Economics Department at UT Austin, and the department chair, Dale Stahl, was an expert in game theory and experimental economics. He was also a close friend and long-term collaborator of Andy. He had a dedicated experimental laboratory on the fourth floor of the economics department for conducting experiments. So, I visited his office to seek advice on the specific experimental design for the prediction market. He provided detailed suggestions and guidance on every aspect of the experiment (later, Dale Stahl also became a member of my dissertation committee). Based on his advice, Huaxia and I designed the computer system interface for the experiment. Later, Andy helped me apply for $1,000 as funding for the experiment from the university (I still remember the scene of going to the UT Main Tower with Andy to collect the $1,000 check). With everything in place, we just needed the final push. Speaking of the final push, one advantage of the Economics Department at UT Austin was that any Ph.D. student could reserve the economics department's fourth-floor laboratory. So, I booked the lab and posted promotional posters recruiting participants for the experiment (they were plastered all over the entrances of the economics department and the business school). After that, I calmly waited for the day of the experiment.

Overall, the experiment went smoothly, and we quickly reached the target number of participants. It was all hands on deck at that time. I was responsible for introducing the experiment's purpose and specific steps to the participants, Huaxia handled the data entry into the database, and my wife (who was my Ph.D. classmate) calculated the participants' rewards based on their performance. Afterward, I analyzed the experimental data that provided empirical evidence for my JMIS article titled "Effects of Social Networks on Prediction Markets: Examination in a Controlled Experiment." It also formed the basis for the second chapter of my doctoral thesis.

This experience of conducting the experiment was very helpful for my subsequent research. Over the years, experimental methods have been widely applied in the field of information systems, and I have used various experimental methods in several of my later research articles. This complete experimental experience allowed me to understand many details of experimental design clearly. Another benefit is that I introduced experiments into my teaching, which has been well-received by students. I have always believed that research and teaching should complement each other: good research should be applicable to teaching, and likewise, good teaching can inspire research. Speaking of teaching, there is recent news that brings joy. In the Poets & Quants 2022 Best 40-Under-40 MBA Professors selection, three scholars with connections to me won awards: Lizhen Xu, Andy's student and my academic brother (currently teaching at the Georgia Institute of Technology); Yiting Deng, my fellow master's classmate at CCER in Peking University (now teaching at University College London); and Professor Wu's daughter, Houwei Wu (currently teaching at the China Europe International Business School).

Written on May 23, 2022

• （九）实验经济学

在我的 second year paper 里，我写完了 social network based prediction market 的博弈理论模型。然而，我心中一直想找到一些经验证据来检验理论模型。在浙大本科的时候，就上了周其仁老师的新制度经济学。在课上，周老师强调了真实世界的经济学和黑板经济学的区别，并推荐了张五常的《经济解释》。当年一鼓作气读完了《经济解释》的三卷本，觉得酣畅淋漓，真实世界引人入胜。前两年，《经济解释》出了新修的五卷本，我又买了回来，重温一下当年的感觉。为了用真实世界来验证理论模型，我决定借助实验经济学。

当时在 UT Austin 的经济系，系主任 Dale Stahl 是博弈论和实验经济学的专家，也是 Andy 的好朋友和长期合作者。他在经济系四楼有一个专门的实验室，用来做实验。于是，我上他的办公室请教 prediction market 的具体的实验设计。实验的每一个细节，他都给了我详细的建议和指导（之后，Dale Stahl 也成了我 dissertation committee 中的一员）。根据这些建议，我和华夏一起设计了实验的电脑系统界面。后来，Andy 又帮我向学校申请了 1000 美元作为实验的经费（我还记得和 Andy 一起去 UT Main Tower 拿1000 元 check 的情景）。这样一来，就万事具备，只欠东风了。说到东风，UT Austin 的经济系有一个好处， 任何博士生都可以预约经济系四楼的实验室。所以，我预定了实验室并张贴了招募实验参加者的宣传海报（贴满了经济系和商学院的出入口）之后，就气定神闲的等着实验那天的到来。

总的来说，实验进行得相当顺利，实验参加者很快达到了预定的人数。当时，全体总动员，我负责向实验参加者介绍实验目的和具体步骤，华夏负责把实验数据导入数据库，我太太（她是我的博士班同学）按照实验参加者的 performance，给他们报酬。之后，我分析了实验数据，于是我的 JMIS 文章 "Effects of Social Networks on Prediction Markets: Examination in a Controlled Experiment“ 有了实验的证据。我的博士论文的第二章也是由此发展而来的。

这次做实验的经历，对我之后的研究很有帮助。这些年来，实验方法在信息系统领域广泛应用，我之后的好几篇文章也用了不同的实验方法。这次完整的实验经历让我清楚的了解到实验设计中的很多细节。另一个好处是在我的教学中，我也引入了实验，受到了学生的欢迎。我一直觉得研究和教学应该是相辅相成的：好的研究应该可以应用到教学上，同样的，好的教学会给研究带来灵感。说到教学，最近有件令人高兴的事。在 Poets & Quants 2022 Best 40-Under-40 MBA Professors 的评选中，有三位和我有渊源的学者获奖：Andy 的学生，我的师兄 Lizhen Xu（现在 Georgia Institute of Technology 执教）；我在北大 CCER 的硕士同学邓一婷（现在 University College London 执教）；以及巫老师的女儿巫厚玮（现在中欧国际工商学院执教）。

写于2022年5月23日

(10) Friendship beyond Generations: Ira

I was deeply saddened to hear the news of my colleague Ira Horowitz's passing this morning. Ira was not only my colleague and mentor but also a dear friend. He had been teaching at UF ISOM for a long time, while his wife Nancy taught in the UF Economics department. When I joined UF in 2014, Ira was already retired, but he remained very active in the department. He would frequently visit the office, actively participate in seminars, and as a result, we quickly became acquainted.

I still remember our first meeting in February 2014 when I came to UF for a job talk. I immediately sensed a resemblance between him and Andy. Despite his age, Ira was intellectually vibrant and sharp. Perhaps it was because we both had an economics background that we connected so well. Ira once mentioned that he had the opportunity to become the chair of the Economics department at UT Austin in the 80s or 90s. Unfortunately, for various reasons, it didn't work out. Unlike most retired professors, Ira never truly retired. Before the pandemic, he would visit the office two or three times a week, and naturally, we would often cross paths. Whenever we bumped into each other, we would make plans to have lunch together. He would often take me to unique and hard-to-find places to eat. This may be why Andy referred to him as a foodie. Andy mentioned that he had a pleasant conversation with Ira during his visit to UF in the early 90s when Ira was the department chair.

Ira was approachable and helped me revise my papers multiple times. His contributions were instrumental in the publication of my article titled "Platform Policies and Sellers' Competition in Agency Selling in the Presence of Online Quality Misrepresentation" in JMIS. Each revision would be filled with meticulously tracked changes, accompanied by explanations of why certain modifications were necessary. My current writing style owes a great deal to his guidance. Ira's research mainly focused on decision-making and sports economics. Whether it was theoretical research or empirical analysis, he excelled in both areas. For example, his articles "Some Aspects of the Effects of the Regional Distribution of Scientific Talent on Regional Economic Activity" and "Estimation Uncertainty and Optimal Advertising Decisions," published in Management Science in 1966 and 1989 respectively, delved into deep theoretical exploration while incorporating rich empirical evidence. He once told me that he was most proud of being able to publish single-authored articles even after retiring.

When my wife fell ill, as soon as Ira found out, he and Nancy came to our house to provide us with various forms of support. Because Nancy had experienced a similar illness before, their shared experiences and encouragement greatly helped alleviate our mental burdens. Since then, Ira continued to keep abreast of our situation and showed genuine concern. Due to the pandemic, we rarely saw each other in the past couple of years, but we frequently exchanged emails. Every Chinese New Year, he would send me an email with the subject line "Kung Hei Fat Choi" to extend his wishes. About a year and a half ago, he mentioned that due to his declining health, he moved into a nursing home, but he would still go to the office on weekends. My colleague Shubho mentioned that when he visited Ira earlier this month, Ira asked about me and my wife. Regrettably, unexpected events always occur.

When I received tenure, Ira sent me an email with the following message: 

“Liangfei, this is really a Congratulations message to the tenured faculty of ISOM for having the good sense to confirm your status as the brightest and best young star to grace our department in years. It's a privilege to call you my friend and I look forward to seeing you and shaking your hand in the fall.

More importantly, I hope that all is well and proceeding accordingly with Bei.

Warmest regards, IRA”

I want to say to Ira: I am so lucky to have you as my friend and mentor. 

Written on May 29, 2022

• （十）我的忘年交 Ira 

今早听闻我的同事 Ira Horowitz 去逝，心里非常难受。Ira 是我的同事，师长，也是我的朋友。他在 UF ISOM 执教了很长时间，他的太太 Nancy 在 UF 的经济系执教。我2014年加入 UF 的时候，Ira 已经退休，但他还是在系里非常活跃，经常来办公室，也积极参加各种 seminar，所以我们很快就变熟了。记得第一次和他见面是2014年2月，我来 UF 给 job talk。当时就觉得他跟 Andy 有点类似，年纪虽大，但思维非常活跃。也许是因为我们都有经济学的背景，所以非常投契。Ira 说过他在80，90年代的时候曾有机会去 UT Austin 的经济系当系主任，不过由于种种原因，未能成行。与一般的退休老师不同，Ira 可以说是退而不休。在疫情之前，他基本每周去办公室两三次，大家自然也就常常见面。遇到之后，我们会约定中午一起吃饭。他经常会带我去一些很有特色，但又不容易找到的地方吃饭。这可能是 Andy 称他为美食家（Foodie）的原因。Andy 说他在90年代初去过 UF 一次，而那时 Ira 是系主任，他和 Ira 相谈甚欢。

Ira 平易近人，多次帮我修改 paper。我在 JMIS 上发表的 “Platform Policies and Sellers’ Competition in Agency Selling in the Presence of Online Quality Misrepresentation" 就得益于他的多次修改。每次修改总是密密麻麻的 tracked changes，然后和我解释为什么要这样修改。我现在的写作风格在很大程度也得益于他的指导。Ira 的研究主要集中在 decision making 和 sports economics。无论是理论研究还是实证检验，他都信手拈来。比如他1966年和1989年发表在 Management Science 上的两篇文章 “Some Aspects of the Effects of the Regional Distribution of Scientific Talent on Regional Economic Activity” 和 “Estimation Uncertainty and Optimal Advertising Decisions” 既有深入的理论探讨，也有丰富的经验证据。他跟我说他最自豪的事情就是退休之后，还可以发表 single author 的文章。

在我太太患病的时候，Ira 一知道，就和 Nancy 来我们家，给我们各种支持。因为 Nancy 之前也有过同样的病患，所以他们的经验和鼓励给了我们很大的帮助，减轻了我们心理上的负担。之后，他也一直关切的了解各种情况。由于疫情原因，这两年，我们很少见面，不过我们常常交换电子邮件。每年春节，他总是会发给我恭喜发财为 title（Kung Hei Fat Choi）的邮件。一年半前，他提到由于身体大不如前，搬入了 nursing home，不过周六周日，还有时会去办公室。我的同事 Shubho 说他这个月初去看 Ira 的时候，Ira 还问起了我和我太太。遗憾的事情总是突然发生。

在我拿到 tenure 的时候，Ira 写了一封电子邮件给我：

“Liangfei, this is really a Congratulations message to the tenured faculty of ISOM for having the good sense to confirm your status as the brightest and best young star to grace our department in years. It's a privilege to call you my friend and I look forward to seeing you and shaking your hand in the fall.

More importantly, I hope that all is well and proceeding accordingly with Bei.

Warmest regards, IRA”

我想对 Ira 说的是：I am so lucky to have you as my friend and mentor. 

写于2022年5月29日

(11) Center's Academic Siblings

One prominent characteristic of studying under Andy's guidance is the presence of many academic siblings in the center, and Andy encourages everyone to collaborate. We often visit the center together, have meals, and engage in numerous conversations, naturally leading to more collaborations. I remember Andy particularly enjoying a Chinese restaurant in Austin called Din Ho, so we would often gather there.

Most of our collaborations among academic siblings often arise from casual conversations, while meticulously planned collaborations are rare occurrences. Among the fellow students with whom I interacted more frequently at the center were Huaxia, Zhan Shi (now teaching at Arizona State University), Qian Tang (now teaching at Singapore Management University), Gene Moo Lee (now teaching at the University of British Columbia), He Shu (now teaching at the University of Connecticut and will join us at UF in the fall as a colleague), Shun-Yang Lee (now teaching at Northeastern University), and Ying-Yu Chen. I have had numerous collaborations with them as well.

I am grateful for the inclusive nature of the information systems field. Even though many of my academic siblings hold doctoral degrees in fields other than information systems, we have been able to smoothly enter this field and gradually establish ourselves. For instance, Zhan Shi, Shu He, myself, and our later colleague, Yingda Zhai (now teaching at the National University of Singapore), all hold doctorates in economics, while Gene Moo Lee holds a doctorate in computer science. This is not commonly seen in other fields.

Written on June 4, 2022

• （十一）Center 的师兄弟姐妹

在 Andy 门下学习的一大特点是 center 里有很多师兄弟姐妹，Andy 也鼓励大家一起合作。大家经常去 center，也常常一起吃饭，聊天的机会很多，合作自然也就多了。记得 Andy 非常喜欢 Austin 的一家叫顶好（Din Ho）的中餐馆，所以大家常常去那里聚餐。

很多时候，我们师兄弟姐妹的合作是基于偶然的闲聊，而事先有着周密计划的合作则是极少数的情况。在 Center 和我交流比较多的同门有华夏，施展 (现在 Arizona State University 执教），唐倩（现在 Singapore Management University 执教），Gene Moo Lee （现在 University of British Columbia 执教），何舒（现在 University of Connecticut 执教，秋季会来我们 UF，和我成为同事)， 李舜扬（现在 Northeastern University 执教），和陈盈佑。我和他们之间也都有不少合作。

我很感恩信息系统领域的兼容并包。即使我们师兄弟姐妹中很多人的博士学位并不是信息系统领域的，我们也可以顺利进入这个领域，并逐渐生根。比如施展，何舒，我，还有再后来的师弟翟颖达（现在 National University of Singapore 执教）都是经济学的博士；Gene Moo Lee 是 computer science 的博士。这在其它领域并不多见。

写于2022年6月4日

(12) Collaborating with Scholars Outside of Advisors

Ph.D. students often ask me how to develop academic connections with other scholars (non-advisors) during their doctoral studies. I am happy to share my personal experience: my first collaboration with a non-advisor scholar was more of a fortunate accident than a deliberate plan. During my Ph.D., many scholars in the information systems field would come to UT Austin to give talks, and after their presentations, they would have roundtable discussions with Ph.D. students (in 2018, I had the honor of returning to UT Austin to give a talk myself). For me, this was a valuable opportunity because I wasn't a Ph.D. student in the information systems field. I wanted to take advantage of this chance to get to know scholars in the information systems field and introduce myself to them. I attended almost every roundtable discussion. And it was during one of these roundtables that my first collaboration with a non-advisor scholar began, completely by chance.

On April 6, 2012, Sarah Rice (who was teaching at the University of Connecticut at the time and now teaches at Texas A&M) gave a talk at UT Austin about her research on social ties. Her study employed experimental economics to investigate social ties on Facebook. Coincidentally, I was also using experimental economics to study social network-based prediction markets, so I was very interested in her research. During a subsequent roundtable discussion, I had a conversation with Sarah about possible extensions to her current work. After the conversation, I went home without realizing that it could be a potential collaboration opportunity. The next day, Andy forwarded an email from Sarah to me:

"Hi Andy,

One of your students talked about a relatively clever idea for an experiment yesterday in the round table, and I wanted to follow up with him, but I can't find him on the PhD student website. He is working with you; I think he said he's in his third year, a very skinny Chinese guy with glasses. Not sure if that helps, but if you know who I'm talking to, maybe I could talk with him on Monday too? S."

Afterward, I contacted Sarah, and she introduced me to her collaborator, Ravi Bapna. From there, we began using experimental economics to study social ties. Eventually, this led to my publication in MIS Quarterly (MISQ) in 2017 titled "Repeated Interactions Versus Social Ties: Quantifying the Economic Value of Trust, Forgiveness, and Reputation Using a Field Experiment." It's hard to imagine that an MISQ publication could stem from a chance encounter at a roundtable discussion, but that's how life unfolds.

Written on June 12, 2022

• （十二）与非导师的学者合作

经常有博士生问我，在读博期间，应该如何发展同其他学者（非导师）的学术联系。我也很乐意分享个人的经历：我第一次与非导师的学者的合作是一个偶然多于必然的过程。读博的时候，很多信息系统领域的学者会来 UT Austin 给 talk，讲完文章以后都会和博士生有个 round table（在2018年，我很荣幸的回 UT Austin 给了一个 talk)。对我而言，这是个难得的机会。因为我本身不是信息系统领域的博士生，所以很想借这个机会了解信息系统领域的学者，把自己介绍给他们。几乎所有的 round table，我都参加了。而我第一次与非导师的学者的合作也是起源于一个偶然的 round table。

2012年4月6日，Sarah Rice（当时在 University of Connecticut 执教，现在 Texas A&M 执教）在 UT Austin 讲了她的一篇关于 social tie 的文章。那篇文章是采用实验经济学的办法来研究 Facebook 的 social tie。当时我正好也在用实验经济学的方法来研究 social network based prediction market，所以对她的研究非常感兴趣。在之后的 round table 中，我和 Sarah 聊了一些她现在文章的可能扩展。聊完之后，我就回家了，并没有意识到这是一次可能的合作机会。第二天，Andy 转发给我了一封 Sarah 发给他的电子邮件：

”Hi Andy, 

One of your students talked about a relatively clever idea for an experiment yesterday in the round table and I wanted to follow up with him but I can't find him on the PhD student website.  He is working with you, I think he said he's in his third year, very skinny Chinese guy with glasses.  Not sure if that helps but if you know who I'm talking to maybe I could talk with him on Monday too?  S.“

之后，我就和 Sarah 联系，Sarah 又介绍了她的合作者 Ravi Bapna 给我认识。接着，我们就开始用实验经济学的方法来研究 social tie 了。最后，也就有了我2017年在 MISQ 上发表的文章 ”Repeated Interactions Versus Social Ties: Quantifying the Economic Value of Trust, Forgiveness, and Reputation Using a Field Experiment"。很难想象一篇 MISQ 会起源于一个偶然的 round table，然而世事就是如此。

写于2022年6月12日

(13) What is IS

When I first transitioned from economics to the information systems field, I had a significant question. I noticed that top-tier journals in the information systems field had many discussions about "What is IS." It was hard to imagine such a foundational question being discussed in top-tier journals in economics. Later, when I started submitting articles to information systems journals, I found that reviewers would often ask whether the article addressed an IS-related question. Initially, I struggled to understand why everyone was so concerned about this issue. In economics articles, it is rare to extensively argue whether a research topic is within the realm of economics. However, in the information systems field, such examples are not uncommon. Over time, I gradually understood the logic behind it. Economics has been around for hundreds of years and has developed to the point where almost every university has an economics department. In contrast, the information systems field has only been developing for a few decades, and many prestigious universities do not have an information systems program. In this context, emphasizing "What is IS" is a natural progression.

Although there are many discussions about "What is IS," it seems that "What is Economics of IS" is mentioned less frequently. When I first entered the information systems field, many friends from economics departments asked me about my research, and my answer was "Economics of IS." Few friends from economics departments understood what "Economics of IS" meant. Even now, my own understanding of this question may still be incomplete. From my perspective, the core topic of information economics (including game theory and mechanism design) is studying how "Who Knows What" influences "Who Gets What." Alvin Roth, the Nobel laureate in 2012, wrote a book called "Who Gets What — And Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design," which provides a straightforward introduction to market design and is one of my favorite books. Following this line of thought, my understanding of the Economics of IS is studying how IT changes "Who Knows What," thereby further influencing "Who Gets What." Many of my research studies are conducted within this paradigm. For example, my early research on social network-based prediction markets examined how social media changes information flow, consequently affecting predictive performance. In this case, social media makes information flow between friends more relevant, thereby altering "Who Knows What" and subsequently influencing "Who Gets What." Recently, many scholars have been studying the relationship between social media and political polarization, and the mechanisms involved are quite similar: social media makes information flow between friends more relevant, thereby altering "Who Knows What" and subsequently influencing "Who Gets What." In more general terms, in empirical research within the Economics of IS, the (IT-induced) "Who Knows What" often serves as an independent variable, while "Who Gets What" tends to be the dependent variable. Similarly, in analytical models within the Economics of IS, the (IT-induced) "Who Knows What" is often an exogenous variable, while "Who Gets What" is frequently an endogenous variable.

Written on June 17, 2022

• （十三）What is IS

刚刚从经济学转入信息系统领域的时候，我有一个很大的疑问。我发现在信息系统领域的顶级期刊上有很多关于 What is IS 的讨论。很难想象在经济学的顶级期刊上会讨论这样的原问题。后来向信息系统领域的期刊投稿，也发现审稿人经常会问这篇文章讨论的是不是一个 IS 的问题。一开始，我很难理解为什么大家这么关心这个问题。在经济学的文章里，很少有人会长篇累牍的论证某个研究论题是不是一个经济学问题。而在信息系统领域，这样的例子却并不罕见。后来，我逐渐明白了其中的逻辑。经济学诞生了几百年，发展到现在，几乎每个大学都有经济系。而信息系统领域才发展了几十年，不少名校都没有信息系统专业。在这个背景下，强调 What is IS，也是顺理成章的。

虽然有很多关于 What is IS 的讨论，但似乎 What is Economics of IS 被提到的较少。我刚刚转入信息系统领域的时候，很多经济系的朋友问我在研究什么，我的回答是 Economics of IS。几乎没有经济系的朋友明白什么是 Economics of IS。直到现在，我自己对这个问题的理解可能也是一知半解。在我看来，information economics（包括 game theory 和 mechanism design）的核心话题是研究 Who Knows What 是如何影响 Who Gets What 的。2012年的诺奖得主 Alvin Roth 写过一本书，Who Gets What — And Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design，深入浅出的介绍 market design，也是我最喜欢的书之一。沿着这个思路，我理解的 Economics of IS 是研究 IT 是如何改变 Who Knows What，从而进一步影响 Who Gets What 的。我的很多研究也是在这个范式下展开的。比如我早期研究的 social network based prediction market，其实就是看 social media 是如何改变 information flow，从而进一步影响预测绩效的。在这里，social media 使得朋友之间的 information flow 变得更加相关，从而改变了 Who Knows What，然后进一步影响了 Who Gets What。最近不少学者都在研究 social media 和 political polarization 的关系，其中的机制也大致相似：social media 使得朋友之间的 information flow 变得更加相关，从而改变了 Who Knows What，然后进一步影响了 Who Gets What。更一般的，在 Economics of IS 的实证研究中，（因为 IT 而改变的）Who Knows What 常常是自变量，而 Who Gets What 则多是因变量。同样的，在 Economics of IS 的 analytical model 中，（因为 IT 而改变的）Who Knows What 多是外生变量，而 Who Gets What 则常常是内生变量。

写于2022年6月17日

(14) MIS 301

Since deciding to transition to IS (around 2011), I started exploring how to pursue a tenure-track position in a business school. Besides the differences in research, there is a significant distinction between business schools and economics departments: business schools place greater emphasis on teaching, and most doctoral students preparing for the job market would have previous independent teaching experience. With Andy's assistance, I eventually obtained an opportunity for independent teaching. In the spring of 2013, I taught MIS 301: Introduction to Information Technology Management, a foundational undergraduate course in IS, at the McCombs School of Business, UT Austin. It was my first experience teaching a course independently.

Given the rarity of this opportunity, I made extensive preparations. In the semester preceding my teaching assignment, I attended lectures given by all the instructors teaching MIS 301 in the business school. I am particularly grateful to Wen Wen for her excellent teaching when she had just joined UT Austin as an Assistant Professor. I learned many teaching techniques by attending her classes. To this day, I believe the best way to improve teaching is by observing how others teach. Additionally, my junior academic brother, Shun-Yang Lee, and I were teaching simultaneously, both instructing MIS 301 (as it was a foundational course for undergraduate students, there were multiple sessions taking place concurrently). We frequently exchanged teaching experiences and lessons learned. Shun-Yang had a natural talent for teaching, and our interactions were highly beneficial for me. Later, he received a teaching award from the business school. Despite the extensive preparations, I was still incredibly nervous when it came to teaching the class myself and barely remembered what I said. At that time, the class met for three hours each week, divided into three sessions (Monday, Wednesday, and Friday), and almost the entire week was dedicated to preparing for teaching. Looking back, those early teaching experiences were incredibly helpful for me. If there's something you eventually have to do, the sooner you start, the better it might be.

Written on June 18, 2022

• （十四）MIS 301

自从决定转入 IS 以后（大约在2011年），我就开始打听应该如何在商学院寻求教职。除了研究上的区别，商学院与经济系还有一个很大的不同：商学院更加看重教学，大部分要上 job market 的博士生都会有曾经独立教学的经验。最终在 Andy 的帮助下，我也获得了一个独立教学的机会。在 2013 年的春天，我在 UT Austin 的商学院教了一门 IS 本科生的基础课 MIS 301: Introduction to Information Technology Management，这也是我第一次独立教课。

因为机会来之不易，所以我做了很多准备。在教课的前一个学期，我几乎听了商学院里所有教 MIS 301 的老师们的课。尤其要感谢文雯。那时她刚去 UT Austin 担任 Assistant Professor，课教得非常好。通过听她的课，我学到了很多教课的小技巧。时至今日，我仍然觉得提高教学的最好办法，就是去听别人是怎么教课的。另外，我的师弟李舜扬和我同时教课，也是上 MIS 301（MIS 301 是本科生的基础大课，所以有很多 sessions 同时进行）。我也和他经常交流教课的经验和教训。舜扬教课很有天赋，与他的交流也使我得益良多。后来舜扬还获得了商学院的教学奖。虽然做了很多准备，但真正自己上课的时候还是紧张万分，完全不记得讲了什么。当时一周上三小时的课，分三次（周一，周三，和周五）上完，几乎一周全在准备教学。现在想来，这些早期的教学经验对我非常有帮助。一件事如果迟早要做，可能越早做越好吧。

写于2022年6月18日

(15) What is A Profound Theory?

During my Ph.D. studies, apart from asking "What is IS," another question that troubled me was, "What is a profound theory?" Perhaps every doctoral student asks this question. My professor at UT Austin, Max Stinchcombe, liked to classify theories into two categories: theory theory and applied theory. Theory theory is not directly used to explain phenomena but provides a new tool or perspective to generate other theories or implications. On the other hand, applied theory is directly used to explain phenomena.

Based on this classification, in my view, profound theories have two criteria. First, they are conceptually profound and open up a new perspective. This criterion is more applicable to theory theory. For example, Arrow security is a highly profound theory that introduces the concept of contingent contracts, extending general equilibrium theory to uncertain situations and becoming the foundation of asset pricing. The core concept of prediction markets is also contingent contracts. Another conceptually profound example is the Coase Theorem, which states that, under zero transaction costs, the allocation of property rights is not important: property rights will always end up in the hands of the person with the highest value. This theory cannot directly explain phenomena because its premise does not exist in reality. In reality, transaction costs are always greater than zero. However, its profundity lies in providing a new approach. The conventional wisdom suggests that if externalities occur, the government should impose a Pigovian tax to correct the situation and restore optimality. If a company pollutes the environment, it should be taxed to internalize the externality. However, the Coase Theorem suggests that the optimal level of pollution by a firm depends on the value comparison between the firm and the surrounding residents regarding pollution. If transaction costs are low, market mechanisms will naturally come into play. This has had a significant impact on subsequent economics and legal practices, especially in pollution permit trading. Regarding theory theory, Box's statement is highly appropriate (although Box referred to statistical models, I believe it applies equally to theory theory): "Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful."

The second criterion is substantive depth, which is more suitable for applied theory. Thomas Schelling once said, "Models tend to be useful when they are simultaneously simple enough to fit a variety of behaviors and complex enough to fit behaviors that need the help of an explanatory model." Daniel Kahneman also made a similar statement: "Richer and more realistic assumptions do not suffice to make a theory successful. Scientists use theories as a bag of working tools, and they will not take on the burden of a heavier bag unless the new tools are very useful." A good applied theory needs to have profound content and be capable of simplifying complexity. In this regard, Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory is an excellent example. Daniel Kahneman's book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow," summarizes his academic contributions. I remember seeing Andy reading the book when it was first published. Over the years, I have read it multiple times, gaining new insights each time, and many of my ideas are inspired by this book. Kahneman's new book, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," is a continuation of "Thinking, Fast and Slow," and reading it is also rewarding.

Written on June 30, 2022

• （十五）什么是深刻的理论

在读博阶段，除了 What is IS，另一个困扰我的问题是什么是深刻的理论。可能每一个博士生都会问这个问题。我在 UT Austin 的老师 Max Stinchcombe 很喜欢把理论分成两类，一类叫 theory theory，而另一类是 applied theory。Theory theory 并不是直接用来解释现象的，而是提供一种新的工具或一种新的视角来产生其它的理论或推论，而 applied theory 则是直接拿来解释现象的。

根据这个分类，在我看来，深刻的理论有两个标准。一是概念上的深刻，可以打开一个崭新的视角。这对于 theory theory 更加适用。比如 Arrow security 就是非常深刻的理论，提出了一个崭新的 contingent contract 的概念，把一般均衡理论扩展到了不确定的情况，成为了整个 asset pricing 的基础。同时，prediction market 的核心概念也是 contingent contract。另一概念上深刻的例子是 Coase Theorem。说的是在交易成本为零的情况下，产权的分配并不重要：产权总会通过市场交易到达价值最高的人手里。这个理论无法直接解释现象，因为它的前提条件在现实中并不存在。在现实中交易成本总是大于零。但它的深刻之处在于提供了一个新的思路。传统之见认为如果出现外部性，需要政府施加一个 Pigovian tax，矫正回最优的情况。如果有企业污染环境，需要对其征税，内化其外部性。然而 Coase Theorem 的思路是企业的最优污染程度取决于企业和周边居民对污染的价值比较。如果交易成本很低，那么市场机制自然会起作用。这对之后的经济学和法学实践都产生了重要影响（尤其是污染许可证的交易）。对于 theory theory, Box 的一句话是非常贴切的（尽管 Box 说的是 statistical models, 但我觉得对于 theory theory 也同样适用）：Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

第二个标准是内容上的深刻性，这对 applied theory 更加合适。Thomas Schelling 有一句话是 Models tend to be useful when they are simultaneously simple enough to fit a variety of behaviors and complex enough to fit behaviors that need the help of an explanatory model。 Daniel Kahneman 也有一句类似的话：Richer and more realistic assumptions do not suffice to make a theory successful. Scientists use theories as a bag of working tools, and they will not take on the burden of a heavier bag unless the new tools are very useful。好的 applied theory 需要有深刻的内容，可以做到化繁为简。在这一点上 Kahneman 和 Tversky 的 prospect theory 就是一个很好的例子。Daniel Kahneman 的著作 Thinking, Fast and Slow，总结了他的学术贡献。记得书刚出版的时候，就看见 Andy 在读。我这些年来也读过几遍，每次读都有新的体会，很多想法也是来源于这本书。Kahneman 的新书 Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment 是 Thinking, Fast and Slow 的延续，读完也很有收获。

写于2022年6月30日

(16) Florida ICIS

My second participation in ICIS was in December 2012, and it's been almost ten years in the blink of an eye. The conference was held in Orlando that year, and it was also my first time visiting Florida. During the conference, I presented my research on prediction markets using experimental economics methods. At that time, I had no idea that I would later be teaching at the University of Florida. This conference was the most relaxed one during my Ph.D. years, not only because of the palm trees in Orlando that gave a vacation vibe. Shortly before the conference, I had just gotten married, so this conference was a true honeymoon trip. My wife and I had planned to visit Orlando first, then drive to Miami, and finally go to Key West, the southernmost point in the United States. Everything went smoothly along the way, and we had a great time.

Written on July 9, 2022.

• （十六）Florida ICIS

我第二次参加 ICIS 是在2012年的12月，转眼已经快十年了。那一年的举办地点是 Orlando，也是我第一次去佛罗里达。在会议上我 present 了用实验经济学方法做的 prediction market 的研究。当时完全没有想到日后会在佛罗里达大学执教。这次会议是我在博士期间最轻松的会议，倒不完全是因为 Orlando 的棕榈树让人有一种度假的感觉。在会议前不久，我刚刚结婚，所以这次会议是名副其实的蜜月之旅。我和太太一早计划好了，先去 Orlando，然后再开往迈阿密，最后去美国的最南端 Key West。一路上非常顺利，玩得也很开心。

写于2022年7月9日

(17) Job Market Paper

During the last three years of my Ph.D. program, my main focus was on my Job Market Paper (JMP). And my JMP was another stroke of luck. At that time, Huaxia had just had a paper accepted by JFE (Journal of Financial Economics). We discussed many details about mechanism design. It was around the same time that Wen-Ling Hsu, one of Andy's former students working at AT&T Research Lab, visited and talked to me about various applications of Mobile Data Offloading in the industry. That's when I realized that the details of mechanism design I had discussed with Huaxia could be applied to designing a Wi-Fi Procurement Auction. This became the prototype for my JMP titled "Hotspot Economics: Procuring Third-Party WiFi Capacity for Mobile Data Offloading." Later, Huaxia and I spent a lot of time refining the mechanism design model and computational algorithm, and it ultimately became one of my most satisfactory papers. Although the publication of this paper had its ups and downs, it was eventually accepted by ISR (Information Systems Research) as "Optimal Auction Design for Wi-Fi Procurement." In May 2014, thanks to the recommendation from my senior colleague Wen-Ling Hsu, I gave a talk at AT&T Research Lab, and everyone liked this model.

Choosing this paper as my JMP was a gamble at the time. In 2013, I had already felt that the research in the Economics of IS was leaning more towards empirical aspects, and purely analytical modeling work might have limited acceptance in job interviews. For me, since I had already published articles in both empirical and analytical modeling aspects, a safer approach would have been to choose an empirical paper as my JMP. Additionally, the most popular topics in IS at the time were social media and social networks. Since I had also been working on research in this area (social network-based prediction market), I had a strong urge to choose a paper in that domain as my JMP. However, in the end, I chose the paper on Mobile Data Offloading that I was most satisfied with at the time (which was also an analytical modeling paper) as my JMP. Whether it was a good or bad decision, even today I'm not entirely sure. It's hard to imagine how things would have turned out if I had chosen another paper as my JMP in a counterfactual scenario.

Written on July 31, 2022.

• （十七）Job Market Paper

博士班的最后三年，我的主要精力投放在 Job Market Paper (JMP) 上。而我的 JMP 称得上是另一个偶然。当时，华夏刚刚有一篇文章被 JFE 接受。我跟他也讨论了很多关于 mechanism design 的细节。恰恰在这个时候，Andy 以前的学生，在 AT&T Research Lab 工作的 Wen-Ling Hsu 来访，和她聊了工业界里 Mobile Data Offloading 的许多应用。这时，我意识到与华夏讨论的关于 mechanism design 的细节可以应用到设计 Wi-Fi Procurement Auction 上面。这也成了我 JMP, "Hotspot Economics: Procuring Third-Party WiFi Capacity for Mobile Data Offloading" 的原型。后来我和华夏又花了大量时间打磨 mechanism design model 和 computational algorithm，最终它成为了我比较满意的一篇文章。这篇文章的发表虽然一波三折，不过最后还是被 ISR 接受（"Optimal Auction Design for Wi-Fi Procurement"）。2014年5月，在师姐 Wen-Ling Hsu 的引荐下，我去  AT&T Research Lab 做了一个 talk，大家也很喜欢这个 model。

采用这篇文章作为我的 JMP, 在当时来说是一个冒险。在2013年，我已经感觉到 Economics of IS 的研究越来越偏向 empirical 方面，纯粹的 analytical modeling work 很有可能接受面会窄一些。对于我而言，由于之前在 empirical 和 analytical modeling 方面，都有文章，所以稳妥一点的方法是选择一篇 emprical 的文章作为我的 JMP。另外，当时在 IS 里最流行的主题是 social media 和 social networks。因为我之前也在做这方面的研究（social network-based prediction market），所以我也有很大的冲动去选择这方面的文章作为我的 JMP。不过，最终我还是选择了当时我个人最满意的关于 Mobile Data Offloading 的文章（也是一篇 analytical modeling 的文章）作为我的 JMP。是好是坏直到今天我也不太确定，似乎很难想象如果选择另一篇文章作为 JMP 的 counterfactual 会是如何。

写于2022年7月31日

(18) Job Market Preparation

The second half of 2013 to early 2014 was when I went on the Job Market. Going on the Job Market is indeed a comprehensive process, with many things to prepare. First, because the main conference that year, ICIS, was held in Milan, Italy, I needed to return to my home country in advance and ensure that my U.S. visa was valid (at that time, U.S. visas were renewed on an annual basis). Then, I also needed to go to the Italian embassy in Houston to obtain an Italian visa. Of course, these were just minor hassles. The real preparation was about how to handle job interviews and job talks.

In the Economics Department at UT Austin, there is a great tradition. Every Ph.D. student going on the job market has two faculty members who conduct practice job interviews for them. I personally found it extremely helpful. Both job interviews and job talks are processes that improve with practice. The more you experience them, the more composed and calm you become. Even today, I often conduct practice job interviews for Ph.D. students who are about to go on the market, and I encourage them to seek out friends and professors they know for practice sessions. Additionally, the department also organizes practice job talks for every Ph.D. student on the market, with the scale and format identical to regular seminars. I still remember vividly that my practice job talk took place on the afternoon of September 27, 2013. The placement coordinator at the time, Eugenio Miravete, recorded my entire talk (watching my own talk again afterward was a very beneficial experience). I distinctly remember feeling extremely nervous during the practice job talk but exceptionally relieved after it ended. On my way home, I even saw a legendary double rainbow. Years later, I saw a similar double rainbow at my home in Gainesville.

Written on August 4, 2022.

• （十八）Job Market 的准备

2013年下半年到2014年初是我上 Job Market 的时候。上 Job Market 的确是一个系统工程，千头万绪，很多事情需要准备。首先因为那年的主要会议 ICIS 在意大利的米兰召开，我需要提前回国，把美国的签证弄好（那时美国的签证还是一年一签）。然后，我还需要去休斯顿的意大利使馆，办好去意大利的签证。当然这些只是小折腾，真正需要准备的是如何应对 job interview 和 job talk。

在 UT Austin 的经济系，有一个很好的传统。每一个要上 market 的博士生，都会有两位老师为其进行 practice job interview。我个人觉得非常有用。无论是 job interview 还是 job talk，都是一个熟能生巧的过程。见得多了，自然就可以处乱不惊，镇定自若。时至今日，我也经常为即将上 market 的博士生开展 practice job interview，也鼓励他们去找认识的朋友和老师去做练习。另外，系里也会为每个上 market 的博士生举办 practice job talk，规模和形式和常规的 seminar 一模一样。至今还记得我的 practice job talk 是在2013年9月27日的下午。那时的 placement coordinator, Eugenio Miravete 还给我的 talk 全程录了相（事后再看一遍自己的 talk 是非常有益的经历）。我清楚的记得在做 practice job talk 的时候，非常紧张，而结束之后，又格外轻松。在回家的路上，还看到了传说中的双彩虹。多年后在 Gainesville 的家中也看到了类似的双彩虹。

写于2022年8月4日

(19) Another Graduation Season

Yesterday was UF's doctoral graduation ceremony. Due to the pandemic, I haven't attended it for three years. From my own doctoral graduation until now, witnessing many students graduate, it has already been eight years in the blink of an eye. Over these eight years, I have collaborated with numerous doctoral students (together with UF's doctoral students, we have published six papers in ISR, one in MISQ, four in POM, and four in JMIS), serving as their dissertation committee Chair, Co-Chair, or member. They have gradually grown, and many of them have become rising stars in academia, taking on prominent roles. This kind of relationship may only exist in academia. In the industry, the supervisor-supervisee relationship often becomes a competitive one: the success of newcomers often poses a threat to the old guard. However, academia is completely different; the more successful the students, the higher the academic reputation of the professors. Perhaps this is one of the appealing aspects of academia.

Written on August 6, 2022.

• （十九）又是一年毕业季

昨天是 UF 的博士生毕业典礼。因为疫情的缘故，我已经三年没有参加了。从自己博士毕业到现在看着许多学生毕业，一晃就已经八年了。在这八年里，我跟不少博士生一起合作 （我和 UF 的博士生在这八年里合作发表了六篇 ISR，一篇 MISQ，四篇 POM，四篇 JMIS），担任他们博士论文委员会的 Chair, Co-Chair, 或者 member。 他们逐渐成长，不少人已经在学术界独当一面，成为冉冉升起的新星。这种关系可能只有在学术界才会存在。在工业界，supervisor-supervisee relationship 常常是一种竞争关系：新人的成功往往会对旧人造成威胁。而学术界则完全不同，学生越成功，老师的学术声誉就越高。这或许是学术界吸引人的一个地方吧。

写于2022年8月6日

 2022年和我的学生 Mariia (Chair)                                2017年和我的学生梅小伟 (member)                    2016年和 UF 的博士毕业生 Gulver

(20) IS Job Market

I officially entered the IS job market primarily through two conferences: the first was the INFORMS/CIST held in Minneapolis in the fall of 2013, and the second was the ICIS/WISE/WITS held in Milan, Italy in December 2013. At the INFORMS/CIST in Minneapolis, I had only a few interviews. That time, I flew with Andy from Austin to Minneapolis. Andy drove me from the school to the Austin airport, and then we went to Minneapolis together. As a newcomer to the conference, one observation I made was that the hallway could be considered a second venue. Regarding this, Michael Lewis captures it well in his intriguing new book (well, all of his books are intriguing), "The Premonition: A Pandemic Story": "You go to a formal meeting. The important conversation is not in the meeting. It's in the Halls during the breaks. And usually what's important is taboo. And you can't say it in the formal meeting."

I stayed in Milan for a week, and I had several interviews every day, so apart from the conference venue and the hotel for interviews, I didn't get to see much of Milan. I attended ICIS and WISE consecutively, and I had a paper presentation and a poster presentation at WISE. That poster presentation was the one I mentioned earlier with Sarah and Ravi's paper. At the time, Sarah printed the poster, sent it to Austin, and I brought the poster with me to Milan.

Interviewing is a skill that improves with practice. When you have four or five interviews in a day, day after day, you become more adept at handling them. I still vividly remember the UF interview at ICIS. It took place in a classroom at Bocconi University, and I was interviewed by Haldun, Janice, and Shubho. A few weeks later, I received an email from Haldun, and my job market entered the next stage: Campus Visit.

"Liangfei,

We would like to invite you for a campus interview. Can you send me two or three available dates (Mondays and Fridays) starting with Jan 24th?"

Written on August 20, 2022.

• （二十）IS Job Market

我正式上 IS 的 Job Market 主要是在两次会议上：一是在2013年秋天 Minneapolis 举办的 INFORMS/CIST，另一个是在2013年12月意大利米兰举办的 ICIS/WISE/WITS。在 Minneapolis 的 INFORMS/CIST，我只有少量面试。那次是和 Andy 一起从 Austin 飞往 Minneapolis。我坐着 Andy 的车从学校到了 Austin 机场，然后一起去 Minneapolis。那时，作为会议的新丁，我的一个观察是 Hallway 可以算成第二个会场。关于这点，Michael Lewis 引人入胜的新书（当然，他每本书都引人入胜），The Premonition: A Pandemic Story，有个很好的总结：“ You go to a formal meeting. The important conversation is not in the meeting. It's in the Halls during the breaks. And usually what's important is taboo. And you can't say it in the formal meeting." 

在米兰住了一周，每天都有不少面试，所以除了会场和面试的旅馆，基本没有去过米兰的其它地方。我连续参加了 ICIS 和 WISE，并在 WISE 上有一个 paper presentation 和 一个 poster presentation。而那个 poster presentation 就是之前我提到的和 Sarah 以及 Ravi 的文章。当时，Sarah 把 poster 打印好，寄到 Austin，我又把 poster 带到了米兰。

面试是一个熟能生巧的事。当你一天有四，五个面试，连续几天，你就可以驾驭自如了。我还清楚的记得 ICIS 上 UF 的面试。那是在 Bocconi University 的一间教室，面试我的是 Haldun, Janice, 和 Shubho。过了几周，我收到了 Haldun 的电子邮件，而我的 Job Market 也进入了下一阶段：Campus Visit。

”Liangfei,

We would like to invite you for a campus interview. Can you send me two or three available dates (Mondays and Fridays) starting with Jan 24th? “

写于2022年8月20日

(21) Econ Job Market

In addition to the IS job market, I also simultaneously entered the job market for economics. At that time, my main focus was IS, but I thought it would be a good idea to participate in the economics market as well to broaden my horizons. The main event for the economics job market that year was the AEA annual meeting held in January 2014 in Philadelphia. I remember arriving in Philadelphia a little after 3 p.m. Soon after reaching the hotel, it started snowing heavily, and I heard that many job market candidates' flights were delayed. This heavy snowfall made the interviews particularly challenging. Interviewers from different schools stayed in different hotels, not far from each other, with walking distances ranging from 5 to 20 minutes. Under normal weather conditions, this wouldn't be an issue, but in freezing temperatures and knee-deep snow, a 20-minute walk became a significant test. Additionally, interviews were often scheduled with less than half an hour between them, so in the hotel area in Philadelphia, you could see job market candidates rushing from one interview to another.

This was my first time attending the AEA annual meeting. I was delighted to meet my fellow classmates and friends from CCER, Ben Zou and Haojun Yu. After the interviews, we also explored Philadelphia together. Additionally, I had a small gathering with Professor Wu and other fellow students, and I attended the CCER alumni gathering organized by Professor Yang Yao, where I met many classmates I hadn't seen in a long time. The next time I could have such a gathering would be when I attended the AEA annual meeting again.

At the AEA annual meeting, I presented my prediction market paper and participated in more than a dozen interviews. I was honored to have an interview with Harvard Business School (HBS), although I realized it was more of an eye-opening experience. At the AEA annual meeting, I also had interviews with some Chinese universities. At that time, Chinese universities were offering positions very quickly, often within a day or two after the interview. During the AEA annual meeting, I received an offer from Wuhan University, and a few days later, I received an offer from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Antai. At that time, with over a dozen interviews at ICIS and many more at AEA, I thought I would have several campus visits in North America. However, in the end, I only had one campus visit in North America, which was UF. While waiting for my flight at the airport in Philadelphia, I received an email from Haldun inviting me for a campus visit at UF. This was my only opportunity in the North American job market.

Written on August 22, 2022.

• （二十一）Econ Job Market

除了 IS Job Market，我还同时上了经济学的 Job Market。当时，我的主要集中点是 IS，但还是觉得可以顺便上一下经济学的市场，开开眼界。我那一年的经济学的 Job Market 主要是2014年1月在费城召开的 AEA 年会。还记得是下午3点多到费城的。刚到旅馆，就开始下大雪，听说很多 job market candidates 的飞机都延误了。这场大雪也使得面试变得格外辛苦。不同的学校的面试老师住在不同的旅馆，相隔不远，走路基本 5 - 20 分钟就可以了。正常天气下，这本不是问题，但是在天寒地冻，大雪埋靴的时候，走20分钟路却是极大的考验。再加上面试之间往往只隔着不到半小时的时间，所以在费城的旅馆区，到处都能看到行路匆匆的 job market candidates。

这是我第一次参加 AEA 年会。令人开心的是见到了 CCER 的同学老友邹奔和俞浩君。面试结束以后，还和他们游玩了一下费城。另外，我和巫老师以及其他同门也小聚了一下，还参加了姚洋老师组织的 CCER 校友聚会，见到了很多许久不见的同学。下一次这样的聚会只有等我什么时候再参加 AEA 年会了。

在 AEA 年会上我 present 了我的 prediction market paper，又参加了十几个面试。非常荣幸的是可以参加 Harvard Business School (HBS) 的面试，不过我也意识到这就是开阔一下眼界，并不会真正拿到 HBS 的 campus visit。在 AEA 年会上我还参加了一些中国学校的面试。那时中国学校给 offer 的速度非常快，常常是面试之后一两天就会给 offer。我还在 AEA 年会的时候，就收获了武汉大学的 offer，过了几天又收到上海交大安泰的 offer。当时觉得在 ICIS 上有十几个面试，在AEA 上也有不少，应该在北美会有好几个 campus visits。没想到，最后在北美只有一个 campus visit，那就是 UF。在离开费城等飞机的时候，我收到了 Haldun 的邮件，邀请我去 UF campus visit，这是我在北美 Job Market 上的唯一机会。

写于2022年8月22日

(22) Florida Job Talk

My job talk at UF took place on January 27, 2014. Since this was my only opportunity in North America, I felt extremely anxious before the trip. I arrived in Gainesville on the evening of the 26th and left on the afternoon of the 28th, and the entire schedule was packed. Although I had rehearsed my job talk countless times, I still felt incredibly nervous on the actual day. I had no idea what I was saying during the hour and a half of the talk. On the morning of the 28th, I participated in a real estate tour, which was a fascinating experience. Later, when I bought a house in Gainesville, I used the same real estate agent.

After the campus visit, it was a period of anxious waiting. Since I didn't receive any positive news from other places in North America, I placed all my hopes on UF. When I returned to Austin and met Andy, I told him I was extremely anxious. Andy said, "Although you only had one job talk in North America, you only need one job." While his words were comforting, facing such uncertainty inevitably made me restless. The department chair at UF, Kenny, said that if there was any news, he would call me. So I kept a close eye on my phone, ensuring it had enough battery power and a stable signal. On the evening of February 3rd, just after I finished taking a shower, I heard my wife calling me to answer the phone. For me, it was an exciting moment. Kenny informed me that UF was preparing to offer me a position. I quickly accepted UF's offer, ready to embark on a new chapter in my academic journey.

Written on September 10, 2022.

• （二十二）Florida Job Talk

我在 UF 的 job talk 是在2014年1月27日。因为这是在北美的唯一机会，所以临行前心中异常忐忑。26日晚上到达 Gainesville, 28日中午离开，整个行程被安排得满满的。虽然 job talk 已经事先排练了无数次，但是亲身临场还是格外紧张。一个半小时的 talk 完全不知道自己讲的什么。28日早上参加了 real estate tour，这是一个很有趣的经历。后来在 Gainesville 买房，我用的还是同一个地产经纪。

Campus visit 以后就是焦急的等待过程了。由于在北美其它地方都没有好消息，我把全部希望都放在 UF 上了。回到 Austin，见Andy 的时候，我说自己非常的焦虑。Andy 说虽然你在北美只有一个 job talk，但你只需要一个工作。话虽如此，但面临这样的不确定性，难免坐立不安。UF 的系主任 Kenny 说如果有消息，会打电话给我，所以我时刻注意着手机，确保它电力稳定，信号通畅。2月3日的晚上，我刚洗完澡，就听到太太叫我接电话。对我来说，这是激动人心的时刻，Kenny 说 UF 准备给我 offer 了。我很快接受了 UF 的 offer，也即将开启学术之旅的新篇章。

写于2022年9月10日

(23) The New and the Old in Phenomena

Compared to economics and other social sciences, business school research has a notable characteristic: the pursuit of new phenomena and new business models. A glimpse into the past decade of IS research reveals this trend: from social media to mobile, and then to big data, IoT, and emerging trends like Fintech, blockchain, and AI. Once a new pattern emerges, most scholars promptly follow suit. This is understandable as everyone is drawn to novelty, and I myself am no exception. However, researching new models does not imply excluding the study of old phenomena and old models. Researching old phenomena can also bring forth new knowledge.

Avner Greif from Stanford studied the group punishment practices of medieval merchants. By combining detailed historical records with game theory models, he greatly expanded our understanding of markets and institutions. I first heard about his research during Professor Qiren Zhou's New Institutional Economics course back in 2003. However, it wasn't until today, a decade later, during my son's chess tournament break, that I finally had the opportunity to read Avner Greif's work. Unlike historians, economists often study history to derive new theories and test their validity. Recently, my senior academic sister at CCER, Ruixue Jia, published an article in the top economics journal QJE about Zeng Guofan's social relationships. It is another excellent example of how studying old phenomena can yield new knowledge. Unexpectedly, this article has sparked controversy among historians. The perspectives of economists and historians are ultimately different.

Written on January 25, 2023.

• （二十三）现象的新与旧

比起经济学和其它社会科学，商学院的研究有一个显著特点：求新，追求研究新的现象和新的商业模式。从近十年的 IS 研究，就可以管中窥豹：从 social media，到 mobile，再到 big data，IOT，和方兴未艾的 Fintech, blockchain, 和 AI。一旦一种新的模式和热点兴起，大部分学者都会及时紧跟。这本来无可厚非，大家都喜欢新鲜事物，我自己也是这么做的。不过，研究新模式并不代表着要排斥研究旧现象和旧模式。研究旧的现象也可以带来新的知识。

Stanford 的 Avner Greif 研究了中世纪商人的群体惩罚模式。他把详细的史料和博弈模型相结合，大大扩展了我们对市场和制度的理解。早在 2003 年周其仁老师的新制度经济学课上，就听说过他的研究。不过直到十年后的今天，趁着儿子 chess tournament 的间隙，我才终于拜读了 Avner Greif 的著作。与历史学家不同，经济学家研究历史，常常是想从历史中得出新的理论，并验证理论的力量。最近，我在 CCER 的学姐贾瑞雪在经济学顶刊 QJE 上发表了一篇关于曾国藩的社会关系的文章。这也是研究旧现象可以带来新知识的好例子。当然，始料未及的是这篇文章引起了史学家的争议。经济学家和史学家的角度终究是不同的。

写于2023年1月25日

(24) Ten Thousand Whys

When I was a child, there was a book I really liked called “Ten Thousand Whys.” After becoming a professor, I often receive various questions from students. Here, I will briefly summarize a few of them and provide my own thoughts. It is important to note that my responses can only be considered as personal opinions and not definitive answers, as many academic questions do not have a single correct answer.

Question 1: Is it always preferable to use randomized controlled trials instead of observational studies to establish causation? 

My answer: No. In general, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often considered superior in terms of internal validity for establishing causality, while observational studies excel in external validity. However, it is important to recognize the issue of compliance within RCTs. Although RCTs have traditionally been regarded as the gold standard, many trials encounter challenges with low compliance rates in the treatment group. For instance, the effectiveness of mask-wearing has seen conflicting results between observational studies and some previous RCTs. While numerous observational studies consistently demonstrate a significant reduction in respiratory virus transmission through mask-wearing, certain RCTs have reported mixed or limited findings in preventing influenza-like illnesses. 

Although RCTs are often perceived to address unobserved confounders and yield more convincing results, in this specific case, I would place more trust in the findings of the numerous observational studies. Many RCTs on mask-wearing face difficulties with low compliance rates, particularly among children in the treatment group. Ensuring proper adherence to mask usage is crucial for maintaining the validity of RCTs, but in reality, a relatively low number of participants in the treatment group adhere to mask-wearing guidelines. As John List highlights in his new book, "The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale,": "Compliance, another way of simply saying use, is a non-negotiable ingredient for just about every policy, program, or enterprise at scale."

Written on May 10, 2023

• （二十四）十万个为什么

小时候很喜欢的一本书叫《十万个为什么》。当了老师以后，经常会有学生问各种各样的问题。我简单总结几个，并提供自己的想法。需要注意的是我的回答只能称作想法，并不是标准答案，而很多学术问题也没有标准答案。

问题1：使用随机对照试验而不是观察性研究来建立因果关系，是否总是更可取？

我的回答：不是。通常情况下，随机对照试验（RCT）在内部效度（因果关系）方面被认为更为优越，而观察性研究在外部效度方面表现出色。然而，需要意识到随机对照试验中的遵从性问题。尽管随机对照试验传统上被视为金标准，但许多试验在治疗组中遇到了低遵从率的挑战。例如，关于佩戴口罩的有效性，观察性研究和某些以往的随机对照试验得出了矛盾的结果。尽管许多观察性研究一致显示佩戴口罩能显著减少呼吸道病毒传播，但某些随机对照试验却报告了不一致或有限的预防类流感疾病的结果。

尽管随机对照试验通常被认为能解决未观察到的混淆因素并产生更具说服力的结果，但在这个特定案例中，我更倾向于相信众多观察性研究的结果。许多有关佩戴口罩的随机对照试验在治疗组中面临低遵从率的困难，尤其是在儿童中。确保正确遵守佩戴口罩的规定对于维护随机对照试验的有效性至关重要，但事实上，治疗组中遵守佩戴口罩指南的参与者相对较少。正如 John List 在他的新书，The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale，中强调的那样：“遵从性，也就是使用，对于几乎所有的政策、项目或大规模企业来说都是一种不可妥协的要素。”

写于2023年5月10日

(25) Ph.D. Graduation 

Facebook reminded me that it has been 9 years since I graduated with a Ph.D. Time is indeed relative; sometimes it feels like it's passing slowly, and other times it's accelerated. I remember 9 years ago, the graduation ceremony for the Economics Department was held in the gym. After finding a job, I felt particularly relaxed. The Ph.D. regalia at UT is quite distinctive, but it comes with a hefty price tag. I vaguely remember that even after the discount, it was still over $700. However, I thought that in the future, if I have my own Ph.D. students graduating, this regalia will be quite useful. And now, it has proven to be true.

Written on May 22, 2023

• （二十五）博士毕业

Facebook 提醒我已经博士毕业9年了。时间的确是相对的，有时觉得过得慢，有时又被加速了。记得9年前经济系的毕业典礼是在 Gym 的礼堂里举行的。找到工作之后，我的心情格外放松。UT 的博士服很有特色，不过买一件价格不菲，依稀记得打完折之后还要700多。不过想着以后如果自己的博士生毕业，这件博士服会挺有用的，现在果然如此。

写于2023年5月22日

(26) Making a Comeback After a Long Break 

Due to the pandemic, I haven't been able to attend in-person conferences and give talks for a long time. Recently, I have resumed participating in conferences and giving talks. A few weeks ago, I went to Florida State University to present a paper on social trading. Last week, I attended a blockchain conference held at the University of Miami. Apart from presenting a paper, I also took part in a panel discussion, where we discussed the future of blockchain research.

In my view, blockchain research encompasses two aspects: finance and technology. First, it is natural to question the differences between the new blockchain and traditional financial markets. For example, Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) bear many similarities to traditional Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in several aspects. We have gained considerable knowledge about IPOs through finance literature. My colleague, Jay Ritter, at the University of Florida's finance department, is a leading authority in IPO research and is known as Mr. IPO. He has conducted extensive research on IPO market efficiency. Overall, the IPO market is quite efficient. However, we know very little about the new ICOs. On the one hand, ICOs lack underlying firms like IPOs, they don't have quarterly financial statements, and they lack government regulation. They only have simple white papers, so it is quite possible that the market efficiency of ICOs is not as good as that of IPOs. However, on the other hand, the ICO market is not like the stock market. It doesn't have trading holidays and operates 24/7, which might make it more efficient. One of my recent working papers aims to compare the market efficiency of ICOs and IPOs.

Second, because blockchain encompasses both finance and technology, the interaction between the two becomes very interesting. For example, another paper of mine investigates how the technology aspect influences the financial attribute. Specifically, most cryptocurrencies have their source codes publicly available on GitHub, and understanding how these source codes affect cryptocurrency prices becomes an intriguing question.

Written on May 23, 2023

• （二十六）久休复出

由于疫情的原因，我很久没有参加 in person 的 conference 和 talk 了。最近重新开始了参加会议和给 talk。几周之前去了 Florida State University 讲 social trading 的 paper。上周又去了迈阿密大学召开的 blockchain conference。除了讲 paper 以外，还参加了 panel discussion，谈了谈 blockchain research 的未来。

在我看来，blockchain research 包含两个方面，一是 finance，二是 technology。首先，很自然的，人们都会想问新的 blockchain 跟传统的金融市场有什么区别。比如说 initial coin offering (ICO) 在很多方面都很像传统金融的 IPO。关于 IPO，我们通过金融学的文献已经了解了很多。我的同事，在UF金融系的 Jay Ritter 是研究 IPO 的权威，被称为 Mr. IPO。他有大量关于 IPO market efficency 的研究。总的说来，IPO market 是相当有效的。可是我们对新型的 ICO 知之甚少。一方面，ICO 不像 IPO 那样有 underlying firm，没有财务报表，也缺少政府监管，只有简单的 white paper，所以很有可能市场有效性不如 IPO。然而，另一方面，ICO 市场不像股票市场，它没有休息日，全天全年都可以交易，所以也有可能更有效率。我最近的一篇论文就是想比较 ICO 和 IPO 的 market efficiecny。

其次，正因为 blockchain 包含了 finance 和 technology 的两个方面，所以两者的互动变得很有意思。比如我的另一篇文章研究了techonology 是怎么影响 finance 属性的。具体来说，大部分加密货币在 GitHub 上都公布了源代码，而这些源代码如何影响加密货币的价格就成为了有趣的问题。

写于2023年5月23日

(27) Is AI a Rising Tide that Lifts All Boats? 

Putting Acemoglu's new book, 'Power and Progress,' together with Piketty's magnum opus, 'Capital in the Twenty-First Century,' is not only complementary but also intriguing. Both books' core ideas are closely aligned, suggesting that development and technological progress do not necessarily lead to an increase in income for ordinary people. Piketty's major work argues that growth is not a rising tide that lifts all boats, focusing more on data collection and measurement. On the other hand, Acemoglu's new work emphasizes that technology is not a rising tide that lifts all boats, concentrating more on theoretical propositions. Both books underscore the fact that despite significant technological advancements during the post-industrial revolution period, the income of ordinary workers remained stagnant. Most of the benefits from technological progress were captured by the elite class controlling technology and machines. Substantial wage increases for ordinary workers only occurred in the following decades. This led Acemoglu to his core viewpoint that technological progress, including AI, does not inherently result in increased income for ordinary people. The distribution of technological dividends depends on the underlying political processes, which resonates with some aspects of Marx's classic theory.

Acemoglu holds a similar perspective regarding AI. Of course, AI can either substitute or complement existing human labor, depending on the specific AI technology. However, even if AI complements human labor and enhances labor's marginal productivity, it does not necessarily mean that AI development will increase workers' income. This contrasts with classical economic theory, which suggests that if AI and human labor are complementary and increase labor's marginal productivity, businesses should hire more workers, leading to higher wages for workers. However, Acemoglu points out that labor markets are often not characterized by perfect competition. In historical periods like the Middle Ages or the Industrial Revolution, forced labor was prevalent. Therefore, even if technological advancements made labor more valuable, they did not guarantee a rise in workers' wages. The elite class could simply force workers to work longer hours through political mechanisms. Card's latest review article published at AER also points out that labor markets are not necessarily perfectly competitive, and monopsony power exists in many labor markets.

In my opinion, many labor markets in the sharing economy are indeed characterized by monopsony, where platforms hold significant bargaining power (e.g., in the ride-sharing market). Recently, during a trip back to my home country China, I noticed that using ride-hailing services like DiDi was very convenient, with effective matching technology ensuring a quick arrival of the vehicle after booking. However, did the drivers' income increase due to the improvements in matching technology? This could be an empirical question.

Written on July 30, 2023

• （二十七）Is AI a Rising Tide that Lifts All Boats? 

把 Acemoglu 的新作 Power and Progress 与 Piketty 的大作 Capital in the Twenty-First Century 放在一起看是相得益彰，饶有趣味的。两本书的核心思想非常接近，都是说发展与技术进步未必可以带来普通人收入的增长。Piketty 的大作是说 growth is not a rising tide that lifts all boats，更多聚焦在数据的收集与测度；而 Acemoglu 的新作是说 technology is not a rising tide that lifts all boats，更集中与理论的提出。两本书都强调了一个事实，工业革命后的五、六十年，虽然技术大发展，但普通工人的收入却停滞不前。技术进步的大部分收益都被掌握技术和机器的精英阶层分走了。普通工人工资的显著提高是再之后几十年的事了。Acemoglu 由此引发了他的核心观点，技术（包括 AI 在内）进步并不会自然而然使得普通人的收入得到提高。技术红利的分配取决于背后的政治过程。这与马克思的经典理论有异曲同工的地方。

对于 AI，Acemoglu 的想法是类似的。当然，AI 与现有的人类劳动力可能是替代，也可能是互补关系；这取决于具体的 AI 技术。但即使 AI 与人类劳动力是互补的，可以提升 labor 的 marginal productivity，也并不一定意味着 AI 的发展可以提高工人的收入。这与经典的经济学理论是不同的。经典的经济学分析告诉我们如果AI 与人类劳动力是互补的，可以提升 labor 的 marginal productivity, 那么企业就应该聘用更多的工人；那么工人的收入也会相应的上涨。但这个经典的逻辑链条有一个关键假设：劳动力市场是充分竞争的。因为劳动力市场充分竞争，那么劳动力提升了的 marginal productivity，就会使得劳动力更值钱，同时工人的工资也会上涨。然而 Acemoglu 指出很多时候，劳动力市场都不是充分竞争的。比如在中世纪或是工业革命发生的时候，强制劳动还是非常普遍的。即使技术进步使得劳动力更加值钱，也并不意味着劳动力的工资会上升。精英阶层通过政治机器强迫工人更长时间工作就可以了。Card 在他最新的综述文章（AER）里就指出劳动力市场未必是充分竞争的，monopsony 在很多劳动力市场上都存在。

在我看来，不少 sharing economy 的 labor markets 都属于 monopsony，也就是平台拥有太大的话语权（比如在 ride sharing market 上）。前段时间刚刚回国了一趟，最大的感觉就是滴滴打车非常方便，配对技术行之有效，叫车之后两三分钟车就到了。然而司机的收入是不是因为配对技术的改进而提高了呢？这可能是一个实证的问题了。

写于2023年7月30日

• (28) Remembering Professor Wu

I learned this morning that Professor Wu passed away, and I feel deeply saddened. Over the past few weeks, we, the academic brothers and sisters of the Wu Group, have been offering our final prayers. Unfortunately, the news we dreaded has arrived.

My journey into academia was greatly influenced by Professor Wu. Twenty years ago, while studying for my undergraduate degree at Zhejiang University, I had the privilege of attending Professor Wu's game theory class. It was my introduction to the realm of game theory, where I experienced its wonders and wisdom. To this day, I have several research projects related to applied game theory. At that time, Professor Wu resigned from his tenured position at Tulane and returned to teach at National Taiwan University, while also serving as a visiting professor at Zhejiang University. It was in Professor Wu's class that I first experienced the charm of game theory.

After graduating from Zhejiang University, I went to Peking University's China Center for Economic Research (CCER) for further studies, and it was during this time that Professor Wu joined Peking University as a full-time faculty member. Not only did I take Professor Wu's Advanced Microeconomics II course, but I also became one of his first batch of master's students at Peking University. I remember when Professor Wu first arrived at Peking University, many CCER students wanted to choose him as their advisor. I was very fortunate to become his student. The weekly group meetings, where we discussed the latest academic papers in finance and game theory and presented our own ideas, were immensely beneficial. Because Professor Wu often asked probing questions during these meetings, we all prepared diligently, carefully reading the academic papers to avoid being caught off guard. Those pure academic moments are unforgettable. I remember one time when I had to introduce a paper co-authored by Snehal Banerjee, Ron Kaniel, and Ilan Kremer titled "Price Drift as an Outcome of Differences in Higher-Order Beliefs" (which was later published in Review of Financial Studies, but at that time, it was still a working paper). To fully understand the paper, I visited Banerjee's personal webpage and read three other related working papers. This deepened my understanding of higher-order beliefs in financial markets. Under Professor Wu's guidance, a few months later, I even developed a small model on the coexistence of higher-order beliefs and first-order beliefs in financial markets. This small model later became my first English working paper: Higher-Order Beliefs and Asset Market Dynamics. I still remember Professor Wu helping me revise the paper on higher-order beliefs: from grammar to structure, and from citations to insights, his revisions were meticulous and insightful. Even today, when I supervise doctoral dissertations, I try to be as meticulous as possible. However, I am ashamed that I still cannot match Professor Wu's level of attention to detail. This further emphasizes the value of the education I received under Professor Wu. The experiences from those group meetings greatly helped my later research on prediction markets and recent studies in FinTech. For example, my recent paper titled "Informational Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets" published in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA) benefited greatly from Professor Wu's group meetings. I remember our first group meeting was on October 9, 2007, at 3 p.m. (in the small room of Zhifu Building). Looking back at Professor Wu's emails from that time, it feels like it all happened yesterday:

"Dear all, Our first meeting will be on Oct 9 at 3pm in the small room of Zhifu Building. Please talk about what you have read or done in the summer etc.

Ho-Mou"

When I graduated from CCER, Professor Wu gave me a book on Fu Peirong's lectures on traditional Chinese culture. Now, when my students graduate with their doctorates, I also give them a book I like. Since graduating from CCER, I have stayed in touch with Professor Wu. After my first year of doctoral studies at UT Austin, I even returned to Beijing to attend the group meeting of Professor Wu's research group during the summer break. At that time, my junior colleagues Yiqing Xing, Yao Zeng, and Yizhou Xiao defended their master's theses during the group meeting. Later, Professor Wu encouraged me to submit our coauthored paper to the 2010 Econometric Society World Congress. After the paper was accepted, Professor Wu helped me revise the presentation slides at the conference venue in Shanghai. Due to the pandemic, prior to last year, I hadn't returned to China for many years. The last time I saw Professor Wu in person was at the AEA meeting in 2014. However, we have always kept in touch on WeChat. The last message Professor Wu sent me on WeChat was on January 10th this year:

"Yesterday, a CCER student forwarded me your personal reflection. I was deeply moved after reading it! You mentioned your time from Zhejiang University to CCER, and the period when you wrote your master's thesis, immersed purely in academic research. Those were also the happiest memories of my academic career at Peking University! Your journey has not been easy, and your achievements are remarkable and sweet. Congratulations on your academic achievements and having a happy and fulfilling family life!"

Written on May 3, 2024

• （二十八）怀念巫老师

今天早上得知巫老师去世了，心里非常难过。前几周已经收到了一些消息，我们巫组的师兄弟姐妹们在做最后的祈祷。不幸的消息还是来了。

我走上学术的道路，很大程度上是受到巫老师的影响。二十年前在浙大读本科的时候，有幸上了巫老师的博弈论课，被引进了博弈论的殿堂，感受了博弈论的奇妙与智慧。至今我还有好几个关于应用博弈论的研究项目。当时巫老师从 Tulane 辞去终身教职，回台大任教，同时也在浙大当客席教授。而我在巫老师的课堂里也第一次领略了博弈论的魅力。

从浙大毕业后，我去北大中国经济研究中心 (CCER) 继续读研，而这时巫老师也全职来到北大任教。我不仅修读了巫老师的高级微观经济学II，还成为了巫老师在北大的第一批硕士研究生。记得巫老师刚来北大时，很多 CCER 的同学想选他当导师，我非常有幸成为了他的学生。之后每周一次的组会，让我受益匪浅。当时组会的主要内容是讨论最新的金融学和博弈论方面的学术论文以及 present 自己的想法。因为巫老师常常会在组会上问出很深入的问题，所以我们都会精心准备，仔细阅读那些学术论文，生怕被问倒。这段纯粹的学术时光令人怀念。记得有一次，我要介绍 Snehal Banerjee, Ron Kaniel, and Ilan Kremer 合写的一篇文章 Price Drift as an Outcome of Differences in Higher-Order Beliefs （这篇文章后来发表在 Review of Financial Studies 上，不过当时还是一篇 working paper)。为了能全面的理解这篇文章，我找到 Banerjee 的个人主页，把其它相关的三篇 working papers 都看了一遍。这样对金融市场上的高阶信念的来龙去脉就有了更深的认识。在巫老师的指导下，几个月后，我还写出了一个 higher order belief 和 first order beleif 在金融市场上并存的小模型。这个小模型后来成为了我的第一篇英文的 working paper: higher order beliefs 对金融市场的影响。至今还记得巫老师帮我修改 higher order beliefs 的文章：从文法到布局谋篇，再到引用，细致无遗，充满洞见。到今天，我自已指导博士生论文时，也尽量认真。可是很惭愧，还是没有办法像巫老师那么细致严谨。这也更使我感受到在巫老师门下受教的可贵。组会里的这些经验对我后来的 prediction market 的研究，和最近 FinTech 方面的研究都有很大的帮助。比如，我最近发在 Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (JFQA) 上的文章 Informational Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets 在很大程度上得益于巫老师的组会。记得我们第一次组会是在2007年10月9日下午3点（朗润园的致福轩小教室）。翻出巫老师当年的电子邮件，一切似乎还发生在昨天：

"Dear all, Our first meeting will be on Oct 9 at 3pm in the small room of Zhifu Building. Please talk about what you have read or done in the summer etc.

Ho-Mou"

在CCER 硕士毕业的时候，巫老师送了我一本傅佩荣讲中国传统文化的书。现在我的学生博士毕业，我也会送他们一本我自己喜欢的书。从 CCER 毕业以后，我和巫老师也一直保持着联系。我在 UT Austin 博士班一年级暑假的时候，还回北京参加了巫组的组会。当时师弟邢亦青，曾垚，和肖弋舟在组会上硕士论文答辩。后来，巫老师鼓励我把我们合作的文章投到 了2010年的 Econometric Society World Congress。文章被接受以后，巫老师还在上海的会场里帮我修改了 presentation slides。因为疫情，在去年之前，我多年没有回国。最后一次 in person 见巫老师是在 2014 年的 AEA 上。不过，我们在微信上一直保持着联系。巫老师最后一次发给我微信是在今年的1月10日：

“昨天一位CCER的同學轉來你寫的 personal reflection ，我看了很是感動！你提到從浙大到CCER，還有寫碩士論文的那段時光，純粹的沈浸於學術研究，那也是我在北大與學術生涯中最快樂的回憶！你一路走來也真不容易，成果也相當豐盛甜美，祝賀你取得的學術成就與擁有幸福美滿的家庭！”

写于2024年5月3日

• （29）Memorial Ceremony for Professor Wu

The memorial ceremony for Professor Wu was held in Taiwan. The students from Professor Wu's group at CCER jointly sent a wreath. An important concept in economics is public goods, and Professor Wu has always been a provider of public goods. He mentored countless students throughout his life, spreading his influence worldwide. Among the first batch of master's students at CCER under Professor Wu, three of us, including myself, went abroad for our PhDs. I went to UT Austin, while the other two went to Chicago Booth and Duke. The younger cohort surpassed us with their achievements; two went to Stanford and one went to Harvard. Now, everyone is teaching in various places, including the University of Florida, the University of Toronto, the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Peking University, among others. The best way to commemorate Professor Wu might be to embody his spirit and continuously provide public goods. Five years ago, when I told Professor Wu the news that I had received tenure, I could clearly feel his joy. Similarly, a few months ago, when I learned that my former student, Xiaowei Mei, had received tenure at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, I also experienced a shared sense of happiness.

In Chinese tradition, people tend to avoid discussing the end of life in everyday conversation. My Ph.D. advisor, Andrew Whinston, has always been very open-minded. He often says to me (we still maintain a habit of monthly phone calls) that at his age (close to ninety), he feels that each meeting with friends and students could be the last, and the next time might be a reunion in another world. Cherishing the present and striving to provide public goods might be the best way to honor our memory with Professor Wu.

Written on May 23, 2024

• （二十九）巫老师的追思会

巫老师的追思会在台湾举行，我们 CCER 的巫组学生联名送上了花篮。经济学中的一个重要概念是公共品，而巫老师一直都是公共品的提供者。他一生桃李满天下，遍布世界各地。巫老师在 CCER 的第一批硕士生里，出国攻读博士学位的包括我在内共有三人。我去了 UT Austin, 而另外两位去了 Chicago Booth 和 Duke。比我们低一级的师弟们长江后浪推前浪，其中两位去了 Stanford, 一位去了 Harvard。现在大家也都在各地任教或工作，包括佛罗里达大学，多伦多大学，宾大沃顿商学院，港中文，和北大等等。纪念巫老师的最好方式可能就是身体力行，不断提供公共品。五年前，当我把拿到 tenure 的消息告诉巫老师的时候，我清楚地感觉到他的欣喜之情。同样的，几个月前，当我得知之前的学生梅小伟在香港理工大学拿到 tenure 的时候，我也体会到了一份共通的喜悦。

中国人的传统是比较忌讳在日常中谈及生命的终结。我的博士导师 Andrew Whinston 一直非常豁达。他常常对我说（我们至今还保持着大概每月通电话一次的习惯），到了他的年纪（近九十），就会感到每次和朋友或学生见面都可能是最后一次，下一次可能是在 another world 相聚了。珍惜当下，努力提供公共品，也许是最好的追思。

写于2024年5月23日

• （30）Macro and Micro

Every time I go back to China, I buy a few Chinese books. Last year, I bought "Jianshang" and "The Origin of Wealth," and this year, I got "The Ming Dynasty Under the Microscope" and "Xi: A Qin Official and His World." Comparing "The Origin of Wealth" with "The Ming Dynasty Under the Microscope" is quite interesting. I like both books, but they represent different approaches. "The Origin of Wealth" focuses on macro-level themes and grand narratives (such as the Malthusian Trap). Generally speaking, such grand issues are difficult to manage. Even someone as renowned as Acemoglu seems to struggle with certain chapters in his magnum opus. However, "The Origin of Wealth" cleverly maintains a consistent logic, succinctly extracting the main thread and unifying the complex historical phenomena into a single analytical framework. I must admire the effort Lemin Wu put into his doctoral dissertation (I met Lemin once. In January 2014 at the AEA, I was interviewed for a position at Peking University. Lemin was one of the interviewers). "The Ming Dynasty Under the Microscope," true to its title, adopts a micro-level perspective, meticulously showcasing the interactions and conflicts among various social characters. At first glance, it seems somewhat trivial, but on deeper reflection, it forms a coherent narrative. These two approaches can complement each other and create an interesting contrast.

Written on July 17, 2024

• （三十）宏观与微观

每次回国都要买几本中文书。去年回国买了《翦商》和《富种起源》，今年买了《显微镜下的大明》和《喜：一个秦吏和他的世界》。把《富种起源》和《显微镜下的大明》对比一下是很有趣的。两本书我都很喜欢，但它们却代表了不同的思路。《富种起源》聚焦于宏观的主线和宏大的主题（马尔萨斯陷阱）。一般来说，这种宏大的问题，很难驾驭，连 Acemoglu 这样的大家在他的巨著中的某些章节里也显得力不从心。然而《富种起源》却巧妙地把逻辑一以贯之，提纲挈领地揪出主线，把纷繁复杂的历史现象统一于一个分析框架。不得不佩服作者吴乐旻在他的博士论文上下的功夫（我与作者吴乐旻有一面之缘。在2014年1月的 AEA上，我在找工作，面试了北京大学的职位。吴乐旻是其中的一位面试官）。《显微镜下的大明》，书如其名，采取的是微观的视角，细致入微地展示了社会各色人等的博弈互动。初看略显琐碎，但仔细想来却也能穿成一线。两个思路可以互补不足，相映成趣。

写于2024年7月17日

• （31）Mentorship Program 

Professor Wu often said that one of the important duties of a scholar is to provide public goods. Perhaps the best way to honor his memory is to carry forward his beliefs. With the support of the Chinese Economists Society (CES), I organized a Mentorship Program for Economics and Business. This program aims to help Ph.D. students in economics and business establish meaningful connections with senior scholars, navigate the complexities of academic publishing, and tackle the challenges of diverse job markets.

https://www.chinaeconjobmarket.org/#/mentorshipProgram 

Written on January 12, 2025

• （三十一）留美经济学会导师指导计划

巫老师常说学者的一项重要任务是提供公共品。追思巫老师最好的方式也许就是传承他的信念。我在留美经济学会的支持下，组织了经济学和商学的导师指导计划。我们这个计划旨在帮助经济学和商学领域中的博士生与资深学者建立有意义的联系，应对复杂的学术发表过程和多样化的就业市场。

https://www.chinaeconjobmarket.org/#/mentorshipProgram 

写于2025年1月12日

• （32）Writing A New Book

I embarked on writing a new book titled "Social Bellwether: AI-Empowered Corporate Social Media"

Everyone has a secret dream when they pick up their favorite novel: the dream of stepping into the shoes of the protagonist and embarking on an extraordinary adventure. For me, that dream began fifteen years ago when I was a doctoral student at the University of Texas at Austin. Late at night, surrounded by stacks of research papers, I discovered Bellwether by Connie Willis—a novel that seemed to whisper directly to me. 

It wasn’t just science fiction; it was a revelation. Dr. Sandra Foster, the brilliant and determined researcher at the heart of the story, wasn’t chasing stars or battling robots. Instead, she was delving into something far more elusive and dangerous: the unpredictable patterns of social influence. She hunted the origins of fads, pieced together the chaos of human behavior, and uncovered mysteries hiding in plain sight. Why fads happen, how they spread, and what makes ordinary people suddenly flock to trends like bobbed hair, hula hoops, or the inexplicable craze for naming their children after fruits. It is tedious, methodical work—until a seemingly insignificant event throws her carefully controlled life into chaos. A rare breed of sheep that might hold the key to understanding humanity itself. As Dr. Foster tries to unravel the growing puzzle, she begins to suspect that what she thought she knew about order, randomness, and even people themselves is being reshaped by forces she cannot predict—or control.

I couldn’t stop thinking about her world—a world where every trend had a story, every small action rippled outward, and even the seemingly random had its own strange order. I dreamed of being her, of unraveling the enigma of why we humans do what we do. What secrets might I uncover? What patterns might I see that no one else could? But the deeper I fell into Bellwether, the more I realized that Dr. Foster’s work was no ordinary research. Beneath the surface of fads and chaos lay something deeper, something far more complex—a force that seemed to defy understanding. It was thrilling. It was terrifying. And in my quiet moments, I wondered: what if I could follow the same path? Would I uncover the same truths? Or would I be lost in the labyrinth of chaos, just like the characters in the novel?

In Bellwether, Connie Willis weaves a brilliant and darkly humorous tale about unpredictable social influence. But beware—what starts as a quirky exploration of trends may lead you to question the hidden patterns of your own life. The complexity of social influence in the age of AI-powered social media is as enigmatic as human nature itself—and it lies at the very heart of my book, as you will discover. In Bellwether, Dr. Foster unravels the mysteries of trends and fads, winning the mysterious Niebnitz Research Grant—a fictional award strikingly similar to the prestigious MacArthur Genius Grant. I, however, have not reached the same heights of acclaim as Dr. Foster. Yet, in my own way, I fulfilled a dream that was born from her story: I became a professor dedicated to studying the unpredictable forces of social influence. 

This book on corporate social media mirrors my journey through the labyrinth of human behavior, where randomness and order collide, and where the smallest actions ripple outward in ways no one can foresee. It is a tale of discovery, filled with intrigue and uncertainty, and I hope to share that journey with you—one that continues to challenge the limits of what we understand about the invisible forces that shape our world.

The first chapter of my book: Social Bellwether: AI-Empowered Corporate Social Media

P.S. This book is not just an exploration of corporate social media in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data; it is also a reflection of my academic journey—a path shaped by the wisdom and generosity of the many mentors, colleagues, coauthors, and students who have profoundly influenced my career. Writing this book has been as much a process of intellectual discovery as it has been a personal act of gratitude to the communities that have supported and inspired me along the way.

A special acknowledgment goes to my doctoral advisor, Professor Andrew Whinston, during my time at the University of Texas at Austin. As he celebrates his 90th birthday in 2025, it is fitting to recognize his towering contributions to the field of information systems and economics. Even today, Andy remains energetic and deeply engaged in academic work, exemplifying the intellectual vitality and rigor to which all scholars aspire. I am honored to acknowledge his profound impact on my work. His guidance shaped my understanding of how technology transforms business and society, and his influence permeates much of the research and ideas in this book.

I must also pay tribute to my master’s advisor, Professor Ho-Mou Wu, from my time at the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, China. Having completed his Ph.D. at Stanford under the guidance of the esteemed Mordecai Kurz and Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow, Professor Wu cultivated exceptional expertise in industrial organization, game theory, and financial economics. His passing in 2024 was a profound loss to the academic community, but his legacy endures. Professor Wu was a scholar of unparalleled dedication, who believed deeply in the idea that knowledge is a public good. He often reminded his students that one of the greatest responsibilities of a scholar is to create and disseminate knowledge for the betterment of society. Perhaps the most meaningful way to honor his memory is to carry forward his vision—spreading knowledge to a global audience through books like this and through the boundless potential of digital platforms. His philosophy is a cornerstone of my approach to scholarship, and I am forever grateful for his mentorship.

Written on  January 20, 2025

• （三十二）写新书

我开始写一本新书："Social Bellwether: AI-Empowered Corporate Social Media"

每个人翻开心爱小说时都藏着一个隐秘的梦想：化身主角，踏上非凡的冒险之旅。我的梦想始于十五年前，在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校攻读博士学位时。某个被研究论文包围的深夜，我邂逅了康妮·威利斯的《领头羊》——这部仿佛在对我耳语的小说。

这不只是科幻，更是一场启示。故事的主人公桑德拉·福斯特博士不是追逐星辰或对抗机器人的英雄，而是执着探索更隐秘危险的领域：社会影响力难以捉摸的律动。她追踪时尚潮流的起源，拼凑人类行为的混沌碎片，在司空见惯中发掘隐秘。为何某种风潮会爆发？如何传播？为何普通人突然开始追逐波波头、呼啦圈，甚至用水果为孩子命名？这本是枯燥的学术研究——直到一只特殊绵羊的出现，将她精心构筑的秩序击得粉碎。这只可能揭示人类本质奥秘的生物，迫使福斯特博士在解谜过程中逐渐发现：她所认知的秩序、随机性乃至人性本身，正被不可预测的力量重塑。

我无法停止想象她所处的世界——每个潮流都有故事，每个微小举动都泛起涟漪，看似随机的表象下暗藏诡异秩序。我渴望成为她，破解人类行为之谜：会发现何种隐秘？会看见何种独属于我的模式？但随着深入阅读，我惊觉福斯特博士的研究非同寻常。潮流与混沌的表层之下，涌动着某种深邃复杂、几乎无法理解的力量。这发现令人战栗，也令人惶恐。静夜沉思时，我总在自问：若踏上同样道路，会触及相同真相吗？抑或如书中角色般迷失于混沌迷宫？

在《领头羊》中，康妮·威利斯编织了一个关于不可预测社会影响力的黑色幽默寓言。但请注意——这场始于潮流研究的奇妙探险，或将引你审视自身生活的隐秘模式。在AI主导社交媒体的时代，社会影响力的复杂性正如人性本身般深不可测，而这正是本书试图揭示的核心命题。书中福斯特博士破解潮流密码，赢得虚构的尼布尼茨研究基金——这个与麦克阿瑟天才奖惊人相似的奖项，恰似现实在文学中的倒影。我虽未获得福斯特博士般的殊荣，却以另一种方式实现了她的故事赐予我的梦想：成为专注研究社会影响力不可预测性的教授。

这本关于企业社交媒体的作品，折射出我在人类行为迷宫中跋涉的旅程——随机与秩序在此碰撞，微小举动激发的涟漪终将演变成无人预见的浪潮。这是充满未知与惊喜的发现之旅，我愿与你分享这段仍在持续的经历：它不断挑战着我们对塑造世界的隐形力量的认知边界。

我的新书第一章: Social Bellwether: AI-Empowered Corporate Social Media

后记

这本书不仅是对人工智能与大数据时代的企业社交媒体的探索，也是我学术旅程的一种映射。这条道路深受众多导师、同事、合作者和学生的影响，他们对我的职业生涯产生了深远的影响。写作本书不仅是一次智识的发现过程，也是一种对支持和鼓励我的学术社群表达感激的个人行为。

特别感谢我在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校求学期间的博士导师 Andrew Whinston。即便年近九十，Andy 依然精力充沛，积极参与学术工作，展现了所有学者所追求的知识活力。他的指导塑造了我对技术如何改变商业与社会的理解，而他的影响贯穿了本书的许多研究与理念。

我也想向我在北京大学攻读硕士学位时的导师巫和懋教授致以敬意。2024年他的辞世是学术界的一大损失，但他的遗产长存。巫老师是一位无与伦比的学者，他深信知识是一种公共产品。他常常提醒他的学生，学者最伟大的责任之一是创造并传播知识，以造福社会。也许纪念他的最有意义的方式，便是继承他的愿景——通过书籍和数字平台的无限潜力，将知识传播到全球。他的理念是我学术探索的基石，我永远感激他的教诲。

写于2025年1月20日

• （33）Chapter 2 of The New Book

The second chapter of my book: Social Bellwether: AI-Empowered Corporate Social Media

Chapter 2 Excerpt

It starts with something small. Barely noticeable. A cough in the back of the throat, a light scratch. Or perhaps, an innocuous post shared by a friend—the kind you scroll past without much thought. But then, it spreads.

You’re a patient. You wake up one morning with a fever, drenched in sweat. You can’t remember when the symptoms started—was it that crowded bus ride yesterday, or the handshake you shouldn’t have accepted? The virus is inside now, invisible yet pervasive, hijacking your cells, using your own body to spread itself further. You don’t even realize how you’ve become part of the transmission chain, carrying it unwittingly to colleagues, family, and strangers. It thrives because it’s contagious, designed to infect and multiply.

You’re a customer. You see a video. It’s clever and catchy—a jingle sticks in your head. You send it to one friend, just to share the laugh. They send it to five more, and within hours, it’s everywhere. The brand name is now unavoidable, burned into your mind. You don’t realize you’ve been pulled into its design, one share at a time. The campaign thrives because it’s contagious, crafted to spread from person to person.

A virus and a viral marketing campaign both rely on the same principle: replication through hosts. A virus infiltrates your body, uses your cells as factories to copy itself, and moves on to the next victim. Viral marketing infiltrates your mind, uses your curiosity or emotional response to spread its message, and moves on to your social network. Both start small but multiply exponentially. Both manipulate their hosts into becoming unknowing agents of their growth.

As a patient, you might think you’re powerless—a victim of biology. But as a customer, it feels voluntary. Yet is it really? Were you compelled to share that video because you wanted to, or because it was engineered to exploit your desire to connect, to laugh, to belong? In both cases, there’s something sinister in the design. The virus mutates to evade immune responses, always one step ahead of the body’s defenses. The marketing campaign evolves too—more creative, more invasive, adapting to the platforms where you spend your time.  And then, the realization: in both scenarios, it’s not just about survival. It’s about domination. The virus isn’t satisfied with one host—it seeks to spread endlessly, unrelenting. The marketing campaign doesn’t stop with one click or one purchase—it wants your loyalty, your advocacy, your identity entwined with its message.

... ... 

The Wild Goose’s Traces

At first glance, the world of social influence appears chaotic—a relentless swirl of actions and reactions, an endless entanglement of lives colliding, breaking apart, and reforming in an intricate, unknowable dance. Human behavior within social networks, caught in this storm, seems no different: fleeting, irrational, and unpredictable. We walk paths that intersect by chance and are governed by forces so vast they slip past our understanding. Coincidence, it would seem, reigns supreme.

Or so it seems.

Consider this: a wild goose gliding across a snowfield, its elegant body cutting a tranquil path through the cold expanse. Behind it, faint traces are left in the snow: claw marks, faint imprints of its passage. As the ancient Chinese poet Su Shi so eloquently said, 

“To what can human life be likened? 

Perhaps to a wild goose’s footprint on snow; 

The claws’ imprint is accidentally left, 

But carefree, the bird flies east and west.”  

The wild goose moves without thought for the marks it leaves, its actions seemingly incidental. But pause. Step closer. Those prints, those tiny indentations in the snow—are they random?

No. Look deeper.

The truth is this: while the wild goose may not care about what it leaves behind, the patterns are not without meaning. The forces that guided its flight—the wind’s pressure, the cold bite of the air, the subtle shifting of its wings—are there, buried in the shallow trails. To the untrained eye, they are meaningless scratches on an expanse of white. But to the keen observer? A map of everything.

Social influence, too, feels like this at first: a series of chance encounters, a scattering of coincidences. Why does one person rise to influence, and another fall into obscurity? Why does one interaction spark, while another fizzles into nothing? Chaos, you might think. Randomness. But no. What if all these seemingly disjointed behaviors, all the decisions we make and the movements we take, are just fragments of a deeper design?

Imagine isolating one thread at a time—following the claw marks left in the snow. It is not easy. The snow melts quickly. Footsteps of others muddy the terrain. But imagine, for just a moment, that you succeed. Strip away the noise, the distractions. Tunnel through the layers, one by one. What emerges is not chaos, but something eerily... precise.

Like the wild goose’s glide across the snow, human behavior within social networks follows patterns we cannot immediately see. The motivations, the influences—every choice is shaped by invisible forces: upbringing, chance, biology, and society. These forces overlap in ways so intricate they appear random at a glance. The wild goose might not know why it tilts its wings the way it does or how the gusts play with its feathers. It might never consider the path it takes. But you? If you could see the wind, if you could feel its unseen pull, you could map the wild goose’s flight perfectly.

Once you start to isolate the forces shaping social influence, a haunting realization emerges, as this chapter will reveal. The randomness begins to vanish, and in its place: a pattern. A pattern so intricate, so deliberate, it might lead you to truths you’re not prepared to face. Coincidences? Perhaps they were never coincidences at all. Your behavior, your choices, the lives you’ve touched—none of them are entirely your own. Like the faint trail of a wild goose etched in the snow, each step may have been inevitable, guided by forces unseen. Below, we will reveal six hidden forces—six subtle yet powerful reasons behind the behavioral similarities in social networks. These forces operate silently, shaping the tides of social influence in ways most never notice. Are you prepared to uncover what lies beneath the surface?

......

Similar tales unfolded in the hushed corridors of Renaissance Florence, where intrigue wove through marble halls like a shadow, and the Medici family’s ascent was no mere stroke of fortune.  It was a masterpiece of strategy—one built not just on wealth, but on the subtle art of social networking. Their ascent was less a march to power and more an elegant dance, choreographed by their uncanny ability to weave themselves into the fabric of Florentine society.

Imagine a world where influence was currency, and every relationship a thread in an intricate web. The Medici were masters of this game, creating a social network long before the age of algorithms. Every banquet, every marriage alliance, every business deal served a singular purpose: to expand their sphere of control. Through this network, they transformed themselves from mere merchants to the unofficial rulers of Florence.

Key to their strategy was patronage, the Renaissance equivalent of “viral marketing.” By funding artists, architects, and scholars, the Medici didn’t just buy prestige—they embedded themselves into the cultural DNA of Florence. Brunelleschi, Michelangelo, Botticelli—these titans of creativity owed their success, in part, to Medici patronage. Their works immortalized the family’s name, spreading their influence across time and space like ripples in a pond.

But the Medici’s social network wasn’t confined to the arts. They infiltrated the Church, an institution of unparalleled power. Giovanni di Bicci de’ Medici planted the family’s roots firmly within the Vatican by securing banking privileges. Later, his descendants would elevate this connection to dizzying heights, producing no fewer than four popes. With the Medici pulling strings from within, Florence became a city where politics and piety were indistinguishable—and the Medici always seemed to hold the winning hand.

The family’s alliances extended beyond Florence, reaching into the courts of Europe. Through shrewd marriages and carefully brokered deals, they connected themselves to royal bloodlines, amplifying their power on an international scale. The Medici were no longer just a Florentine dynasty—they were a force that shaped the politics and culture of an entire continent. And yet, their network was not without its perils. Rival families, such as the Pazzi, plotted their downfall. Assassins lurked in the shadows, waiting for the perfect moment to strike. But even in the face of betrayal, the Medici proved resilient. Their social web, so meticulously constructed, became their shield, allowing them to weather conspiracies and emerge stronger.

The Medici’s story is a testament to the timeless power of human connection. In a world ruled by swords and coins, they showed that social relationships—carefully cultivated, deftly managed—could wield a power far greater than either. Their social network was their empire, and through it, they reshaped history, leaving a legacy that endures to this day.

The lessons of these stories extend far beyond China and Europe. Whether in ancient wars or modern boardrooms, the six forces of social influence continue to shape our world. Homophily drives the formation of political parties and professional networks. Social conformity pushes individuals to adopt trends, from fashion to political ideologies. Word of mouth fuels everything from viral marketing campaigns to grassroots movements. Observational learning guides behavior in times of uncertainty. The awareness effect amplifies the impact of public successes and failures. And network effects turn small movements into global phenomena.

But the real challenge—and the opportunity—lies in distinguishing these forces. Social influence is rarely the product of a single mechanism. Instead, it’s a complex interplay of forces that can be wielded to achieve extraordinary outcomes. Understanding these dynamics isn’t just a matter of academic curiosity—it’s a roadmap for navigating the hidden webs of power that shape our lives. In the end, the study of social influence is a study of human nature itself. And as history has shown time and again, those who understand the hidden forces of influence hold the keys to shaping the future.

Written on  January 28, 2025

• （三十三）新书第二章

新书第二章

第二章 节选

一切始于细微处。微小到难以察觉。喉咙深处的一声轻咳，一丝若有若无的刺痒。又或是朋友随手转发的寻常帖子——那种你刷到时不会多想的消遣。但随后，它开始蔓延。

作为患者

某个清晨你在冷汗涔涔的高烧中醒来，却记不起症状何时初现——是昨天拥挤的公交，还是那次不该握的手？病毒已悄然入侵，无形却无孔不入。它劫持你的细胞，用你的躯体作温床自我增殖。你甚至意识不到自己已成为传播链的一环，将病原体无意间带给同事、家人、擦肩的路人。它肆意繁衍，只因天生为感染与复制而生。

作为消费者

你点开一段视频。魔性的旋律在脑中挥之不去，于是随手转发给一位好友。五小时后，它已占领所有社交平台。品牌名如烙印般刻入记忆，你却未曾察觉自己早已陷入精心设计的圈套——每一次转发都是齿轮的精准咬合。这场营销风暴的肆虐，同样源于其“传染性”：它被刻意雕琢成能在人际间疯狂扩散的形态。

病毒与病毒式营销遵循同一铁律：通过宿主复制。前者侵入肉体，将细胞变为复制工厂后扑向下一个猎物；后者渗入心智，利用好奇心或情感共鸣传播信息，再以你的社交圈为跳板继续扩张。二者皆起于微末，却能指数级爆发；皆诱使宿主在无知无觉中成为其蔓延的帮凶。

作为患者，你或许自认是生物学的囚徒；作为消费者，你却觉得转发出于自愿。但这份"自愿"当真存在吗？你分享视频的冲动，究竟是发自内心，还是被精心设计的算法捕捉了"渴望连接""追逐欢乐""寻求归属"的人性弱点？两种情景下，设计者都暗藏阴鸷：病毒不断变异以逃逸免疫围剿，永远比宿主的防御快一步；营销策略则进化得更具创意、更无孔不入，精准适配你栖居的每个平台。直到某个瞬间，你会悚然惊觉：二者的终极目标并非生存，而是统治。病毒永不满足于单一宿主，它渴求永无止境的传播；营销活动也从不因一次点击或购买止步——它要攫取你的忠诚、你的声量、乃至你与品牌信息交织的身份认同。

……

雁过留痕

初看社交影响力世界，仿佛一片混沌——动作与反应永不停歇地涡旋，无数人生在错综复杂的未知之舞中碰撞、破碎、重组。深陷这场风暴的人类行为似乎同样转瞬即逝、荒诞难测：我们的轨迹因偶然交汇，又被庞大到无法理解的力量左右。命运无常，似乎才是至高法则。

果真如此吗？

试想这样的画面：雪原上一只孤雁悠然掠过，优雅的身躯在茫茫白色中犁出静谧的航迹。它的身后，雪地上留下淡淡的爪印。正如苏轼诗云：

"人生到处知何似，

应似飞鸿踏雪泥。

泥上偶然留指爪，

鸿飞那复计东西。"

鸿雁振翅时从不思索自己留下的痕迹，一举一动仿佛皆是偶然。但且慢，请再靠近些观察——那些雪中细微的凹陷，当真毫无规律？

非也。若你凝神细察便会发现：鸿雁虽不在意身后之迹，雪泥鸿爪却非无章可循。塑造它飞行轨迹的风压、寒流、翼尖的微妙震颤，都悄然藏匿于这些浅痕之中。在外行眼中，这不过是白茫茫大地上凌乱的刮痕；但对洞察者而言，这是一张包罗万象的地图。

社会影响力的运行机制与此何其相似。为何有人登上影响力之巅，有人湮没于尘埃？为何某些互动能点燃星火，另一些却沉寂无声？表面看是混沌，是随机。但若所有支离破碎的行为、所有抉择与行动，都是某个深层设计的碎片呢？

想象你正逐一剥离雪地上的爪印——这绝非易事。新雪转瞬消融，他人的足迹会逐渐模糊。但如果你暂时屏蔽杂音，逐层穿透迷雾，最终浮现的将非混沌，而是某种令人心悸的...精密。

正如鸿雁掠过雪原的轨迹，社交网络中的人类行为也遵循着肉眼难辨的模式。每一次选择的背后，都涌动着无形之力：成长经历、偶然事件、生物本能、社会规训。这些力量以精妙到看似无序的方式交织缠绕。鸿雁或许不知自己为何如此调整翼展，也不知气流如何嬉戏于翎羽之间，它甚至从未思考过飞行路线。但人类不同——倘若你能看见风的形状，感知无形之力的牵引，便能完美绘制鸿雁的航迹图。

当开始解析塑造社会影响力的隐形力量时，一个令人不安的真相将浮出水面，本章将为你揭示：随机性逐渐消散，取而代之的是精密到可怕的模式。这种模式可能引向令人难以承受的真相。所谓的巧合，或许从来不是巧合。你的行为、选择、触动过的人生轨迹，没有一样完全属于你自己。就像雪地上转瞬即逝的雁痕，每一步都可能是被无形之力注定的必然。接下来，我们将揭示六种隐形力量——社交网络中行为趋同性的六大隐秘推手。这些力量如暗流般无声涌动，塑造着社会影响力的潮汐，而大多数人终其一生都未曾觉察。你准备好揭开表象之下的真相了吗？

......

相似的故事在文艺复兴时期佛罗伦萨的寂静长廊中悄然上演。阴谋如暗影般在大理石厅堂间游走，而美第奇家族的崛起绝非偶然。这是一场战略杰作——不仅建立在财富之上，更根植于社交网络编织的精妙艺术。他们的崛起不像权力的进军，更像精心编排的舞蹈，其舞步源自将家族血脉融入佛罗伦萨社会肌理的神奇能力。

想象一个以影响力为货币的世界，每段关系都是精密网络中的丝线。早在算法时代之前，美第奇家族便深谙此道。每场盛宴、每段联姻、每笔交易都服务于同一目标：扩张权力疆域。通过这张无形之网，他们从普通商人蜕变为佛罗伦萨的无冕之王。

其战略核心是赞助——文艺复兴时期的"病毒式营销"。通过资助艺术家、建筑师与学者，美第奇不仅购买声望，更将家族编码进佛罗伦萨的文化基因。布鲁内莱斯基、米开朗基罗、波提切利等艺术巨匠的成功背后，都跃动着美第奇赞助的身影。他们的作品让家族之名穿越时空，如池塘涟漪般扩散影响力。

但美第奇的社交网络远不止艺术领域。他们将触角伸向当时最具权势的机构——教会。乔凡尼·迪·比奇·德·美第奇通过获取梵蒂冈银行特权，将家族根基深植教廷。其后代更将这种联系推向巅峰，培养出四位教皇。当美第奇从教廷内部操纵丝线，佛罗伦萨便成为政教难分的舞台，而他们永远手握王牌。

家族的联盟网络跨越国界，渗透欧洲皇室。通过精明的政治联姻与外交斡旋，他们与王室血脉相连，将影响力放大至整个大陆。美第奇不再只是佛罗伦萨的统治者，而是塑造欧洲政治文化格局的隐形推手。然而这张网络危机四伏：帕齐家族等敌对势力暗藏杀机，刺客在阴影中伺机而动。但即便遭遇背叛，美第奇仍展现出惊人韧性。他们精心编织的社交网络化为护盾，助其化解阴谋并浴火重生。

美第奇传奇印证了人际连接的永恒力量。在刀剑与金币统治的时代，他们证明经过精心培育与巧妙操控的社交关系，能爆发出超越暴力与财富的能量。他们的社交网络即是帝国，藉此重塑历史进程，留下至今仍在回响的遗产。

这些故事的启示远超越地域界限。从古代战场到现代董事会，社会影响力的六大力量持续塑造世界：同质性驱动着政党与专业网络的成型；社会从众性推动着从时尚风潮到政治理念的传播；口碑效应为病毒式营销与草根运动提供燃料；观察性学习在不确定性中指引行为；知晓效应放大着成败的影响力；而网络效应则将微小涟漪变为全球浪潮。

真正的挑战与机遇在于辨识这些力量的交织。社会影响力极少由单一机制催生，而是多种力量的复杂共舞。理解这些动态不仅是学术探索，更是破解塑造我们生活的隐形权力网络的路线图。归根结底，研究社会影响力就是研究人性本质。历史反复证明：掌握隐形影响力法则者，往往掌握着塑造未来的密钥。

写于2025年1月28日

• （34）Prescribed Fire and New Ideas

Today, I took my two kids to witness the prescribed fire at a fire festival. As the flames danced, a spark of inspiration ignited within me, and before I knew it, a new ending for Chapter 1 of my new book had emerged.

Chapter 1 New Ending

Takeaways: The Burning of the Chain-Link Ships and Social Contagion 

In a world where the unseen forces of social influence and contagion lurk in every corner, unresolved internal dilemmas and unpredictable external challenges are guided by a single, clandestine advisor: corporate social media. We say, for unresolved internal affairs, consult corporate social media; for unresolved external affairs, consult corporate social media, because we are no longer just observers of influence—we are entangled in its web. In a world where ideas spread like wildfire and a single spark can ignite an unstoppable chain reaction, social contagion is not just a force—it is the very air we breathe.

The story of the burning of the chain-link ships is one of the most dramatic and decisive moments in the Three Kingdoms period of ancient China.  It occurred during the famous Battle of Red Cliffs, a legendary confrontation between the warlord Cao Cao and the allied forces of Sun Quan and Liu Bei. Fresh from his conquests in the north, Cao Cao turned his gaze southward, his ambition burning brighter than ever. The empire was within his grasp—only the mighty Yangtze River and the defiant warlords of the south stood in his way. Determined to crush all opposition, he gathered an army so vast that the very land trembled beneath its march, his fleet so formidable that it stretched endlessly across the waters.

But power breeds confidence, and confidence, when unchecked, breeds fatal miscalculation. To steady his warships against the river’s unpredictable currents, Cao Cao made a fateful decision—he ordered them chained together, forging an impenetrable wall of iron and wood. What he saw as an unshakable fortress would soon become a death trap, waiting for the right spark to turn his empire-building dream into a smoldering ruin.

Zhou Yu, the chief commander of Sun Quan’s forces, stood on the riverbank, eyes fixed on Cao Cao’s fleet—a massive, chained leviathan floating arrogantly on the Yangtze. Remember that quote from the beginning of the chapter? For external affairs, consult Zhou Yu. Well, now, here he is. Yes, this is Zhou Yu. Cao Cao’s fleet was strong, disciplined, and seemingly indestructible. But to Zhou Yu, it was something else entirely—a trap waiting to be sprung. The very chains that bound the warships in unity would also bind them to their doom.

He devised a plan as ruthless as it was brilliant. Fire. Not just any fire, but an inferno that would leap from ship to ship, unstoppable, inescapable. His forces worked in silence, preparing the instruments of destruction—fire ships, loaded with oil-soaked straw, their hulls waiting to turn into floating torches of devastation. When the moment was right, when the wind whispered its deadly approval, they would unleash their infernal fleet, sending flames racing toward Cao Cao’s proud navy. The enemy thought themselves unshakable. They would soon learn the terror of being unable to run.

The night was eerily still on the Yangtze River, the silence broken only by the gentle lapping of waves against the hulls of countless warships. The forces of Cao Cao, confident in their vast naval power, lay anchored in tight formation, their ships chained together to create an unbreakable wall of might. But what seemed like an impenetrable strategy would soon become the very catalyst for their downfall. As the winds shifted and fire ships sailed toward the heart of Cao Cao’s fleet, the first spark landed—a single ember against wood and rope. In an instant, flames leaped from one vessel to another, the chains that once symbolized unity now ensuring mutual destruction. There was no escape. The inferno spread relentlessly, consuming everything in its path, as panic and chaos overtook Cao Cao’s men. One fire, one moment, had ignited a catastrophe that no force could control.

This ancient battle is not just a story of military cunning; it is a haunting reflection of how social influence and contagion operate in the modern world. Social connections are like chain-link ships, each link a potential spark, igniting a contagion that spreads through the chains, unseen yet inevitable. Like fire leaping from ship to ship, a single idea, a whisper of outrage, or a viral trend can spread uncontrollably across social networks. What starts as an isolated spark—a controversial tweet, a groundbreaking innovation, or a public scandal—can, under the right conditions, set entire communities ablaze with belief, imitation, or hysteria.

Just as Cao Cao’s chained fleet turned a single fire into a raging, unstoppable force, today’s hyper-connected digital landscape binds individuals and institutions in ways that amplify the spread of ideas. The very structures designed for cohesion—social media platforms, corporate networks, and digital communities—can become conduits for viral movements, both constructive and destructive. The question remains: when the next spark flies, will it illuminate the path forward, or will it engulf everything in its wake? Turn the page, and let’s uncover the hidden forces behind the social influence and contagion.

Written on  February 1, 2025

• （三十四）计划烧除与新灵感

今日携两子观计划烧除（Prescribed Fire）。火焰跃动间，灵感的星火骤然迸发，待回过神来，新书第一章的结局已在烈焰中悄然成形。

关键启示：连环船之火与社会传染

在这个社会传染的无形力量潜伏于每个角落的世界里，未解的内部困局与不可预测的外部挑战，都由一位隐秘的顾问指引——企业社交媒体。之前我们说：内事不决问社交媒体，外事不决问社交媒体，因为我们早已不再是影响力的旁观者——我们深陷其罗网之中。在思想如野火蔓延、一粒火星即可引发不可阻挡的连锁反应的世界里，社会传染已非单纯的力量，而是我们赖以呼吸的空气。

赤壁焚舟是中国古代三国时期最具戏剧性与决定性的一幕。这场战役发生于著名的赤壁之战中，曹操与孙刘联军展开了传奇对决。刚平定北方的曹操将目光投向南方，野心比以往任何时候都更炽烈。一统天下仿佛已触手可及——唯有浩荡的长江与南方势力的抵抗横亘眼前。为了粉碎所有的反对势力，他集结了令大地震颤的庞大军团，打造了绵延江面的无敌舰队。

然而，权力滋生自信，而失控的自信终将孕育致命的误判。为稳定舰队，对抗变幻莫测的江流，曹操做出了命运般的抉择——将战船以铁索相连，筑成铜墙铁壁。他眼中的坚不可摧之堡垒，转瞬将成为死亡陷阱，只待一粒火星将他的天下梦焚为灰烬。

孙权军队的统帅周瑜伫立江岸，目光紧锁曹操舰队——那一艘艘由铁索串联、在长江上傲慢漂浮的庞然巨兽。还记得本章开篇的引言吗？"外事不决问周瑜"。此刻，他就在此地。曹操的舰队强悍、纪律严明、看似无懈可击。但在周瑜眼中，它却是另一番景象：一个等待触发的陷阱。那些将战船紧密联结的铁索，终将成为它们的死亡枷锁。

周瑜制定了一个兼具冷酷与智慧的计谋，火攻。非寻常之火，而是能在战船间跳跃肆虐、不可阻挡的炼狱之火。他的部队悄然筹备了毁灭工具——满载油浸稻草的火船，船体随时可化作流动的毁灭火炬。当天时地利俱备，当江风送来致命的应允，他们将释放这支地狱舰队，让烈焰直扑曹操引以为傲的水军。敌军自诩坚如磐石，却即将领教无处可逃的恐惧。

长江之夜诡谲静谧，唯有浪花轻拍无数战舰的声响。曹操大军倚仗压倒性的水军实力，将战船铁索相连组成密集团队。但这看似无懈可击的战略，即将成为溃败的导火索。当风向突变、火船直插曹军舰队的心脏时，第一粒火星落下——微小的火种触及木船麻绳。瞬息之间，火焰在舰船间跳跃，象征团结的铁索此刻确保着共同毁灭，无人能逃。炼狱之火无情蔓延，吞噬沿途万物，恐慌与混乱席卷曹军。一粒火种，一个瞬间，引爆了任何力量都无法控制的灾难。

这场战役不仅是军事谋略的典范，更是现代社会影响力与传染机制的一面魔镜。社会关系犹如连环战船，每个节点都可能迸发火星，通过锁链引发必然蔓延的传染。就像火势在战船间跳跃，一个观点、一丝愤怒的低语，都可能通过社交网络不可控地传播。最初孤立的火星——一条争议推文、一项突破性创新或一桩公共丑闻——在适当时机下，足以点燃整个社群的信念，导致模仿和集体狂热。

正如曹操的连环舰队将星火转化为不可阻挡的狂暴力量，当今超链接的数字世界通过社交媒体平台、企业网络和数字社区等旨在凝聚人心的架构，将个体与机构绑定，形成思想加速传播的通道。这些结构既可成为建设性活动的渠道，也可沦为破坏性浪潮的导管。核心的问题始终存在：当下一粒火星飞溅时，它将照亮前路，还是焚尽沿途一切？翻开下一页，让我们共同揭示社会影响力与传染背后的隐秘力量。

写于2025年2月1日

• （35）Chapter 3 of The New Book

Chapter 3 Excerpt

History is a mirror, but its glass is polished by liars. In China’s labyrinthine past, truth and fiction waltz endlessly—and the music never stops.

Echoes of Rebellion: The Fish-Belly Dan Book, the Fox’s Cry, and the Power of Fake Political News

In the dimly lit days of the Qin Dynasty in ancient China, when the air was thick with whispers of rebellion, the rise of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang was a turning point that would echo through history.  But beneath the surface of their uprising lay a strange tale—a tale of secrets, misinterpretations, and the manipulation of symbols that would resonate eerily in the present day.

It all started with a mysterious note, known as the “fish-belly dan book.” This cryptic message, allegedly written in the blood of fish, found its way into the hands of those who dared to challenge the oppressive regime. The document contained a hidden message, one that gave hope to the downtrodden, urging them to rise up. But was it truly a message from the heavens, or was it something far more insidious—an elaborate trick to fuel unrest? Just like today’s fabricated political stories, the origins of this note were clouded in uncertainty, and its authenticity was never truly verified.

But this wasn’t the only strange omen that surrounded their uprising. A curious incident involving the cry of a fox only deepened the mystery. As the tale goes, just before their rebellion began, a fox was heard crying out in the night, a sound that was believed to be a divine sign, a call for revolution. The people, desperate for change, took it as a signal to act. Yet, much like the sensational political news that often captures the attention of the masses today, the truth of the fox’s cry was left in question. Was it truly a divine message, or simply the howl of an animal in the night, distorted into something greater by the fears and hopes of those who heard it?

The story of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang’s uprising serves as a haunting reminder of how information—whether true or false—can be twisted and wielded to ignite great change. In their time, it was the fish-belly dan book and the fox’s cry that became symbols of revolution. Today, we see a similar pattern in the world of fake political news, where half-truths, rumors, and fabricated stories fuel social unrest and influence the course of history.

The power of information, real or imagined, is undeniable. As we look back on the tale of the fish-belly dan book and the fox’s cry, we are left to wonder: how much of what we hear, see, and believe is truly authentic? And how much of it is simply a carefully constructed illusion, much like the stories that stirred the hearts of revolutionaries long ago?

... ... 

Serpent and Sword: How Myth and Misinformation Forged an Emperor’s Destiny

It was a day like any other as Liu Bang, the leader of the peasant revolt, rode across the rugged landscape, his ambitions burning bright. His army had grown, and the whispers of his destiny to overthrow the Qin Dynasty were already stirring the winds of rebellion. But fate, as it often does, had other plans.

As Liu Bang journeyed with his troops, he came across an unusual sight. A massive serpent, coiled in the middle of the road, its scales glistening in the sun, blocking his path.  In one swift motion, Liu Bang unsheathed his sword and, with the strength of a man with a kingdom to claim, cleaved the serpent in two. As the body of the great snake split in half, Liu Bang continued on, unaware that this seemingly ordinary encounter was about to shape the destiny of an empire.

But as Liu Bang advanced, he noticed an old woman weeping by the side of the road. Her grief was palpable, and her sorrow carried with it an eerie sense of foreboding. Liu Bang, intrigued, approached her. Through her tears, the woman’s voice cracked as she told him the tale: "My son was the White Emperor’s child. He was transformed into a serpent, lying in the path of the Red Emperor’s son. Today, the Red Emperor’s son has slain him."

The words struck Liu Bang and his followers with a force they couldn’t ignore. The old woman spoke of imperial bloodlines, of mythic powers, and of destinies entwined in ways they could not fathom. What did this cryptic message mean? Was it a sign from the heavens themselves, or just a strange twist of fate? Word of the encounter spread rapidly through Liu Bang’s ranks. His followers, hungry for signs of divine favor, seized upon the woman’s words as proof of his fate. “The Red Emperor’s son,” they murmured to one another, “he has been chosen by the gods.” In that moment, Liu Bang, once just another rebel, became something greater—something feared, revered, and even worshipped. His followers, intoxicated by the myth that had just been born, rallied around him with even more fervor. His destiny was sealed, and they would follow him to the ends of the earth.

But the question remained: Had Liu Bang truly been chosen by the heavens, or was this just a story—an elaborate piece of myth-making, designed to elevate a man to power? The truth was unclear, just as it often is with the spread of false information.

This moment, much like the spread of fake political news in modern times, was not merely about facts. It was about perception—about crafting a narrative that could shape the future. The story of the serpent and the grieving woman became a tool, a piece of propaganda that transformed Liu Bang from a mere rebel leader into the “Red Emperor’s son” in the eyes of his people. In their hearts and minds, the myth was real, and its influence was undeniable. Liu Bang’s rise was not just a matter of military might, but of the power of a carefully constructed myth, manipulated to fuel his ascent to the throne.

In the same way, today, the power of fake news—distorted truths and cleverly constructed narratives—can shape the destinies of nations, bending public perception and forging leaders from the fragments of illusion. Whether in ancient China or the modern world, the consequences of these stories are far-reaching, altering the course of history.

The power of narrative is not confined to the myths of ancient China. Stories—whether rooted in truth or deception—have long been wielded as tools to shape perception, rally supporters, and secure power. What Liu Bang’s legend achieved in cementing his divine right to rule, political propaganda has continued to do throughout history, often with consequences just as profound. Centuries after Liu Bang’s rise, a different kind of myth—one forged not in battle but in ink—would alter the fate of a nation. In 1924 Britain, another story, crafted with deception and intent, would decide the course of an election.

The Zinoviev Letter Scandal (1924)

The year was 1924, and Britain was on the verge of an election. Just days before the vote, a leaked letter sent shockwaves through the country. Allegedly written by Soviet official Grigory Zinoviev, it urged British communists to rise up in revolution.  The right-wing press seized the moment, declaring that the Labour Party—already under suspicion for its ties to socialist ideals—was dangerously close to Moscow.

Panic set in. The Labour government, already struggling, collapsed. The Conservatives swept the election. Later investigations revealed the truth: the letter was a forgery, likely planted by British intelligence or anti-communist operatives. But the damage had been done—fabricated fear had altered the course of an entire election.

This story is an echo of what we see today. The tools have evolved from newspapers to social media, from printed forgeries to AI-generated deepfakes. But the intent remains unchanged: to deceive, to manipulate, and to control. Fake political news has always thrived where people are quick to believe and slow to question. As history has shown, the cost of deception is often greater than we realize.

Written on February 6, 2025

• （三十五）新书第三章

第三章节选

历史是一面镜子，但它的镜面由谎言者打磨。在中国错综复杂的过往中，真相与虚构跳着永不停歇的华尔兹——而乐声从未止息。

反叛的回响：鱼腹丹书、狐鸣与虚假政治新闻的力量

在秦朝昏暗的天幕下，当空气中弥漫着反叛的低语时，陈胜、吴广的崛起成了历史长河中的一声惊雷。然而，这场起义的表象之下，却隐藏着一个诡谲的故事——关于秘密、误解与符号操纵的叙事，竟与今日世界产生了共鸣。

一切始于一份被称为“鱼腹丹书”的神秘帛书。这份用鱼血书写的密文，辗转落入反抗暴政者手中，其中暗藏的天意预言点燃了被压迫者的希望，催促他们揭竿而起。但这份“天启”究竟是上苍的旨意，还是一场精心策划的阴谋？正如当今虚构的政治叙事，帛书的来源始终笼罩迷雾，其真实性从未被验证。

更吊诡的是，一场“狐鸣”事件为这场起义蒙上更深的神秘色彩。传说起义前夕，深夜传来狐狸的尖啸，被解读为“大楚兴，陈胜王”的天命之音。渴望变革的民众将其奉为起义信号。但正如今日吸引眼球的爆炸性政治新闻一般，狐鸣的真相始终悬疑：它究竟是神谕，抑或只是暗夜中野兽的哀嚎，被听者的恐惧与期盼放大为时代的预言？

陈胜、吴广的故事如同一面幽暗的镜子，映照出信息——无论真假——被扭曲与操弄后掀动巨浪的力量。昔日的鱼腹丹书与狐鸣，化作革命的图腾；今日的虚假政治新闻，则以半真半假的谣言煽动社会情绪，改写历史轨迹。

信息的能量，无论真实或虚构，始终撼动人心。当回望鱼腹丹书与狐鸣的传说时，我们不禁要问：此刻所闻、所见、所信的，究竟有多少是真实的？又有多少如同千百年前激荡起义者心潮的故事一般，不过是精心编织的幻影？

... ....

蛇与剑：神话与谎言如何铸就帝王天命

那是一个寻常的日子，农民起义领袖刘邦策马穿越崎岖山野，胸中燃烧着灼灼野心。他的军队日渐壮大，关于他将推翻秦朝的预言已如野火般在反叛的风中蔓延。但命运——正如它惯常所为——早已埋下另一重伏笔。

行军中，刘邦忽见一条巨蛇横亘道中，鳞片在日光下泛着冷光。他拔剑一挥，以裂土封疆之力将蛇斩为两段。蛇躯分崩时，刘邦未曾察觉，这场看似偶然的遭遇即将撼动一个帝国的命运。

前行未久，道旁一老妇的悲泣声令他驻足。她的哀恸中裹挟着某种不祥的预兆。老妇颤声言道：“我儿乃白帝之子，化为蛇身挡赤帝之子去路……今日赤帝之子杀了他。”此言如惊雷般震撼了刘邦与部众。白帝与赤帝的玄奥谶语、天命血统的隐喻，在众人心中掀起狂澜。

消息迅速传遍军营。渴求神迹的起义者们将老妇之言奉为天启：“赤帝之子”——他们窃窃私语，眼中燃起狂热。刘邦，这个昔日的草莽领袖，顷刻间被推上神坛。追随者们沉醉于新生的神话，以加倍癫狂的姿态簇拥着他。帝业之基，自此而铸。

但谜题始终悬置：刘邦果真是天选之人，抑或这只是一场精心编织的造神戏码？真相如同所有虚假信息的传播一般，永远蒙着面纱。

这一刻，与当今虚假政治新闻的肆虐何其相似。它无关事实，只关乎叙事——一种能重塑未来的话语炼金术。斩蛇传说与悲泣老妇的故事化作政治工具，将刘邦从起义者淬炼为“赤帝之子”。在子民心中，神话即现实，其力量摧枯拉朽。刘邦的崛起不仅是武力的胜利，更是叙事操纵的杰作。

从竹简到深伪：季诺维也夫信件与虚假信息的千年回响

千年之后，另一场神话——非以剑戟铸就，而以墨水编织——改写了国家命运。1924年的英国大选前夕，一封神秘信件引爆政坛。

季诺维也夫信件丑闻（1924）

选举倒计时之际，据称由苏联官员格里戈里·季诺维也夫撰写的密信被曝光，信中煽动英国共产主义者发动革命。右翼媒体蜂拥而上，指控本就因社会主义倾向遭疑的工党“与莫斯科暗通款曲”。恐慌席卷英伦，工党政府垮台，保守党大胜。事后调查揭示真相：这封改变选举结果的信件，实为英国情报机构或反共势力伪造。

历史总在重演。今日的虚假政治新闻，不过是古老把戏的数码变体——从报纸铅字到社交媒体推文，从手抄密信到AI生成的深度伪造。但核心从未改变：欺骗、操纵、控制。当人们急于相信而怠于质疑时，谎言便找到了最肥沃的土壤。

从刘邦剑下的蛇影到伦敦政客手中的伪信，叙事的力量始终在暗处改写历史轨迹。这些故事警示我们：当神话与真相共舞时，舞步踏错的代价，往往远超想象。

写于2025年2月6日

• （36）Chapter 4 of The New Book

Chapter 4 Excerpt

In the cutthroat world of business, especially in customer relationship management on social media, survival isn’t just about providing good service—it’s about sending the right signals. Every personalized response, every instant resolution, every exclusive reward is more than just a gesture; it’s a message, a declaration of commitment that shapes customer perception and loyalty. But signaling is not a modern invention.

Over a thousand years ago, two of the wealthiest men in the Western Jin Dynasty, Shi Chong and Wang Kai, waged a battle—not with swords, but with opulence.  Their contest wasn’t merely a display of riches; it was a high-stakes game of power, where every move sent an unmistakable signal of who truly reigned supreme. And in the end, one of them delivered a message so devastating, so undeniable, that his rival was left in silent defeat.

The rivalry between Shi Chong and Wang Kai was an unrelenting contest of extravagance, each determined to surpass the other in opulence. They lavished their riches on carriages, horses, and clothing, but Wang Kai held a crucial advantage—his uncle, Emperor Wu, who often lent him support. One day, the emperor bestowed upon Wang Kai a coral tree, its luxuriant branches sprawling in a breathtaking display. At two chi tall, it was a rarity beyond compare, a treasure fit for awe and envy. Brimming with pride, Wang Kai wasted no time presenting it to Shi Chong, anticipating admiration, perhaps even a hint of jealousy. But Shi Chong, after a cursory glance, did something unthinkable. Without hesitation, he raised an iron ruyi and, with a single, deliberate strike, shattered the coral tree into countless fragments.

A stunned silence fell. Wang Kai’s face twisted in anguish—his prized possession, a gift from the emperor himself was destroyed in an instant. He lashed out, accusing Shi Chong of sheer envy. But Shi Chong remained unperturbed. With a faint smile, he merely said, “Do not fret—I shall repay you.” At his command, attendants swiftly retrieved his own collection of coral trees. One by one, they were brought forth—six, seven, each towering at three or four chi, their dazzling radiance casting an almost surreal glow. The room filled with gasps. Among them were countless specimens equal to, if not surpassing, Wang Kai’s lost treasure. Wang Kai’s fury faded into resignation. Overwhelmed by the sheer scale of Shi Chong’s wealth, he stood in silent defeat, the weight of inferiority settling upon him. Shi Chong had not simply broken a coral tree—he had sent an unmistakable message: his wealth was inexhaustible, his treasures innumerable, and any loss, no matter how rare, was trivial.

This story delivers a striking lesson in signaling power—just as Shi Chong’s dramatic act demonstrated his superiority beyond dispute, businesses today must also master the art of signaling in customer relationship management on social media. Every interaction should project a clear message: the company values and prioritizes its customers.

... ... 

In the annals of history, few gestures have embodied sincerity and dedication as profoundly as Liu Bei's three visits to Zhuge Liang’s humble thatched cottage. This episode, immortalized in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, is not merely a tale of persistence; it is a masterclass in signaling—a deliberate act to convey genuine intent and unwavering commitment. 

Liu Bei, a warlord of modest means, recognized the unparalleled strategic brilliance of Zhuge Liang. Determined to secure his counsel, Liu Bei embarked on three arduous journeys to Zhuge Liang’s secluded residence. Each visit was fraught with challenges, yet Liu Bei persisted, demonstrating a profound respect for Zhuge Liang’s intellect and a steadfast resolve to gain his allegiance.

These visits were more than mere requests; they were deliberate signals—a testament to Liu Bei’s sincerity and his willingness to humble himself in the pursuit of wisdom. Zhuge Liang, observing Liu Bei’s unwavering dedication, recognized the depth of his commitment and the authenticity of his intentions. This mutual recognition laid the foundation for a partnership that would become legendary.

In the realm of modern business, this historical episode offers a profound lesson. When companies engage with customers on social media—responding to concerns, addressing complaints, and actively participating in conversations—they are, in essence, performing their own “Three Visits to the Thatched Cottage.” Through these actions, businesses signal their genuine commitment to customer relationships, demonstrating that they value and respect their clientele.

Just as Liu Bei’s persistence led to the invaluable counsel of Zhuge Liang, businesses that invest in authentic engagement cultivate trust and loyalty, forging relationships that are both enduring and impactful.

Footbinding: A Painful Signal of Status

While modern companies may signal commitment and authenticity through proactive customer engagement, societies of the past used elaborate practices to communicate power, status, and exclusivity. These signals, often costly in terms of resources or personal sacrifice, were effective in conveying messages of social standing that others could not easily replicate. One such example comes from ancient China.

In the depths of China’s history, one practice stood as both a symbol of beauty and a brutal reminder of social hierarchy: footbinding.  Reserved for elite families during the Song to Qing dynasties, it was a ritual that demanded immense personal sacrifice. The excruciating pain of this process was not just a test of endurance; it was a powerful signal, one that communicated an unmistakable message of status and privilege.

Footbinding wasn’t merely about beauty or tradition—it was a costly signal. The families who imposed this painful practice on their daughters were not only showcasing their commitment to Confucian ideals of femininity but, more importantly, they were declaring their social and economic power. The very fact that they could afford to bind their daughters’ feet without losing valuable labor was a visible marker of their elite status. It was a practice that only the wealthiest could endure, for poorer families could not afford the luxury of sidelining the labor of their women.

The deeply ingrained social practice of footbinding resonates with Michael Spence’s theory of differential signaling costs. Just as Spence described how certain signals are prohibitively expensive for low-status groups, foot-binding acted as a stark reminder of the divisions within society. The suffering endured by these women was not just about meeting beauty ideals but served as an unmistakable signal of a family’s affluence and social rank. Just as Liu Bei’s visits to Zhuge Liang demonstrated unwavering commitment, footbinding signaled the elite’s ability to afford luxury at the expense of others’ labor, solidifying the social divide and reinforcing their status.

The Roman Emperor’s Purple Robe: A Silent Declaration of Power

The power of signaling, whether in the form of physical suffering or luxurious adornment, is a key tool in establishing societal divisions and affirming status. While footbinding communicated a family’s elite position through a painful and visible sacrifice, other societies used less physically painful, yet equally costly, means to display their dominance. In ancient Rome, for instance, the emperor’s use of the color purple served as a similar form of signaling, reinforcing his authority without a single word being spoken.  Like the elite in China, the Roman emperor’s choice of attire was a deliberate act that spoke volumes about his power, further solidifying the visible and unassailable social hierarchies of the time.

In the grandeur of Ancient Rome, one color stood far above the rest—purple. It wasn’t simply a hue; it was a symbol of rarefied status, an emblem of absolute authority. The dye that gave purple its depth came from the Murex sea snail, a resource so rare and costly that only the emperor and his inner circle could afford it. Every inch of a purple garment carried a weight of exclusivity and power, beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.

This wasn’t just fashion. It was a signal—a deliberate, costly signal. The emperor draped himself in purple not merely for style, but to communicate his supreme position. By wearing the robe, he showcased not only his ability to command such opulence but his divine right to rule. The robe’s color acted as a nonverbal declaration: the emperor was beyond the reach of common concerns, above the daily struggles that bound others. His very appearance sent a message—clear, unambiguous, and impossible to ignore.

In much the same way, Michael Spence’s theory of signaling highlights how costly signals bridge the gap of information asymmetry. Just as the purple robe revealed the emperor’s unchallenged authority, costly signals—whether in ancient Rome or the modern world—serve to expose the true power and legitimacy of those who can afford them. It wasn’t just about looking rich; it was about conveying something far more profound: I am the one who commands, and I stand apart.

Written on February 26, 2025

• （三十六）新书第四章

第四章节选

在商业世界的激烈竞争中，尤其是在社交媒体的客户关系管理中，生存之道不仅在于提供优质服务，更在于传递精准的信号。每一次个性化回复、即时问题的解决、专属福利的发放，都不只是简单的动作——它们是宣言，是塑造客户认知与忠诚度的承诺书。但传递信号的智慧并非现代独有。

一千多年前西晋首富石崇与皇亲国戚王恺的较量，便上演过一场惊心动魄的信号之战。这场以奢华为武器的对决，每个细节都在传递权力博弈的暗语。直到某天，一方用令人窒息的举动发出了终极信号，让对手在沉默中臣服。

石崇与王恺的斗富如同永不落幕的炫富锦标赛。当晋武帝将高二尺的稀世珊瑚树赐予王恺时，这场较量达到沸点。王恺捧着这件御赐珍宝向石崇示威，却遭遇了戏剧性转折——石崇竟随手举起铁如意将其击碎。在众人错愕之际，他命人搬出六七株高三四尺的极品珊瑚，流光溢彩的阵列让御赐宝物黯然失色。王恺最终在震撼中败下阵来，这场摧毁与展示的行为艺术，宣告了石崇财富帝国的不可撼动：即便是御赐珍宝的损毁，于他不过九牛一毛。

这场千年斗富传奇揭示的博弈智慧，恰如当代企业在社交媒体客户管理中的必修课。每个及时回复都在传递"秒懂你心"的信号，每个定制方案都在诉说"为你而生"的承诺。就像石崇击碎珊瑚树的惊世之举，企业需要通过精心设计的服务触点，持续发送"客户至上"的强烈信号。当这种信号形成连贯的价值光谱，便能铸就难以撼动的品牌护城河。

... ...

在历史长河中，很少有姿态能像刘备三顾茅庐那般深刻诠释真诚与奉献。这段载入《三国演义》的经典，不仅是坚持的寓言，更是一场精心设计的信号传递——用刻意之举昭示诚挚心意与不渝承诺。

身居微末的军阀刘备，深谙诸葛亮运筹帷幄之能。为请卧龙出山，他三度跋涉至南阳草庐。每一次叩门都遭遇闭门羹，每一次等待都历经风霜，却始终以躬身之礼彰显对智慧的敬畏。这些叩访绝非简单的礼贤下士，而是精心编排的信号体系：第一顾展现求才若渴，第二顾传递矢志不渝，第三顾终以雪中等候完成终极诚意编码。诸葛亮从这组递进式信号中破译出明主之姿，由此开启"鱼水君臣"的千古佳话。

现代商战中的社交媒体互动，恰似当代版"三顾茅庐"。当企业及时响应客户投诉、主动参与话题讨论、持续提供定制化服务时，实则在编织一张诚意信号网。正如刘备用三次叩门解开诸葛亮的心理防线，企业通过高频次、高质量的互动，向客户发送"以你为重"的情感密码。

缠足：剧痛背后的地位象征

这种信号博弈的智慧，在历史长河中有着更复杂的变奏。当宋代贵族将女儿的双足裹成三寸金莲时，剧痛背后是精心计算的阶层信号：既能彰显家族财力雄厚到无需女性劳作，又暗示着对儒家礼教规训的绝对服从。正如迈克尔·斯彭斯的信号理论所示，这种以生理代价为门槛的信号，天然具备排他性——寒门即便效仿，也无力承担丧失劳动力的代价。

罗马皇帝的紫袍：无声的权力宣言

而在罗马帝国的紫帷之后，帝王身着的泰尔紫长袍则演绎着另一种权力编码术。从二十万只骨螺中萃取的染料，令每寸布料都浸透着稀缺性。当奥古斯都披上这流动的权力符号，无需言语便完成君权神授的视觉宣示。这种奢侈信号与缠足的痛苦印记殊途同归，都在建构着不可逾越的阶层鸿沟。

从三顾茅庐的诚意编码，到紫袍金莲的阶层信号，历史不断重演着人类运用符号建构秩序的智慧。而今在数字世界的每一次点赞、回复、定制服务中，企业都在延续这场古老的信号博弈——只不过昔日的骨螺染料化作了数据算法，曾经的草庐叩门演进为即时通讯。但核心始终未变：如何通过精心设计的信号系统，在受众心智中刻下不可磨灭的价值印记。

写于2025年2月26日

• （37）PhD Program Offer Letter

While organizing Gmail in the afternoon, the system warned that storage space was running low (already at 94%). Amidst filtering and deleting emails with large attachments, a PhD program offer letter from March 2009 suddenly caught my eye. As the mouse hovered over it, sixteen years of time emerged from the digital dust like a faded slice of the past. The joy of receiving the offer had long become a distant memory.

Written on March 29, 2025

• （三十七）博士项目的 Offer Letter

午后整理Gmail时，系统提示存储空间告急（已达94%）。在筛选删除大附件邮件的间隙，一封2009年3月的博士项目录取通知书突然跃入眼帘。鼠标悬停的瞬间，十六年光阴在数字尘埃中显影成褪色的时光切片。收到offer时的欣喜瞬间成为了遥远的过去。

写于2025年3月29日

• （38）Chapter 5 of The New Book

Chapter 5 Excerpt

The ancient Chinese proverb “Three cobblers with their wits combined equal one Zhuge Liang” (Zhuge Liang, the legendary chancellor of the Shu Kingdom, renowned for his strategic brilliance) speaks to a timeless phenomenon: the power of collective intelligence. But is it folklore or fact?

At the dawn of the 20th century, British polymath Sir Francis Galton—staunch believer in elite judgment—stumbled upon an unsettling truth. In 1906, Galton attended a livestock fair in a quaint English village. There, he encountered a curious contest: nearly 800 villagers, farmers, and onlookers were asked to guess the weight of a prize ox. Intrigued, Galton gathered all the guesses, fully expecting chaos in the numbers—after all, what did common folk know of livestock weights? And yet, when Galton calculated the average of all 800 guesses, his certainty cracked. The crowd’s collective guess: 1,197 pounds. The ox’s true weight? 1,198 pounds. Just one pound off. This wasn’t luck. This was the wisdom of crowds—alive and undeniable. 

What Galton had unwittingly discovered was something deeper: when individuals make estimates, their errors—some too high, some too low—often cancel each other out. Through this error-cancellation mechanism, a properly aggregated group response can outperform even the sharpest expert. Thus, gathering dispersed knowledge from diverse individuals can create predictions more accurate than any one person could offer.

Written on May 18, 2025

• （三十八）新书第五章

第五章节选

古语有云"三个臭皮匠，赛过诸葛亮"，这句谚语揭示了一个永恒的现象：集体智慧的力量。但这究竟是民间传说还是客观事实？

二十世纪伊始，坚信精英判断的英国博学家弗朗西斯·高尔顿爵士偶然发现了一个令人不安的真相。1906年，高尔顿在英国一个古朴乡村参加牲畜展览会时，目睹了一场奇特的竞赛：近800名村民、农民和围观者被邀请猜测一头参赛公牛的重量。这位学者收集了所有猜测数据，本以为会看到混乱的数值——毕竟平民百姓怎会精通牲畜重量？然而当他计算完800份猜测的平均值后，坚定的信念产生了裂痕。群体猜测的均值是1197磅，而这头公牛的实际重量是1198磅，仅相差一磅。这绝非运气，而是活生生的、不可否认的群体智慧。

高尔顿无意中触及了更深层的规律：当个体进行估算时，他们的误差——有些偏高，有些偏低——往往会相互抵消。通过这种误差抵消机制，经过恰当整合的群体判断甚至可以超越最精明的专家。因此，汇集不同个体的分散知识，能够产生超越任何单一个体的精准预测。

写于2025年5月18日

• （39）Chapter 6 of The New Book

Chapter 6 Excerpt

It was 1937 when a young economist named Ronald Coase published a paper that would quietly revolutionize our understanding of capitalism. In The Nature of the Firm, Coase addressed a deceptively simple yet profoundly important question: Why do firms exist at all?  In a world supposedly governed by the “invisible hand” of the market, what could justify bypassing that hand to organize work inside corporations, under hierarchy and command?

At the heart of Coase’s groundbreaking theory was a new concept: transaction costs—the hidden tolls we pay when using the market. These are not the prices we see, but the friction in between: the costs of searching for information, negotiating contracts, enforcing agreements, and coordinating actions. When these transaction costs are too high, Coase argued, it becomes more efficient to bring activities “in-house”—to organize them within a firm, managed by authority rather than market exchange. This was more than a theoretical insight. It was a new lens through which to see the modern industrial world. For his contributions to understanding transaction costs and the theory of the firm, Coase was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1991.

...

Yet, every system has its cracks—and bureaucracy is no exception. Its strengths are also its weaknesses. Rigid hierarchies, for example, can restrict the flow of knowledge. Information often travels only one way—from top to bottom. Orders come down like imperial edicts; feedback rarely goes up with the same force.

And here we find an echo in literature—a scene from the classic Chinese novel The Scholars by Wu Jingzi.  In the story, we meet Fan Jin, a humble, meek scholar who has long suffered humiliation for failing the imperial exams. His father-in-law, a butcher named Hu, mocks him relentlessly. But when Fan Jin finally passes the exam and becomes a government official—catapulting him up the social hierarchy—the power dynamic flips instantly. Before, Fan Jin was mocked as a useless dreamer. Now, with his newfound status, he is hailed as “Master Fan.” Same man, different rank—such was the weight of the imperial hierarchy.

Much like Fan Jin, low-level employees in modern firms often find their voices silenced by corporate hierarchy. Afraid of contradicting superiors or challenging the status quo, they remain silent, nodding politely—just like Fan Jin before his triumph.

Written on May 19, 2025

• （三十九）新书第六章

第六章节选

1937年，一位名叫罗纳德·科斯的年轻经济学家发表了一篇论文，悄然颠覆了世人对资本主义的认知。在《企业的本质》中，科斯提出了一个看似简单却意义深远的问题：企业为何存在？在这个本应由市场"无形之手"主导的世界里，是什么理由让我们绕过市场机制，转而在等级森严的公司内部以命令形式组织生产？

科斯这一开创性理论的核心，是一个全新概念——交易成本。这些隐藏在市场运作背后的代价并非明码标价，而是存在于交易缝隙间的摩擦：搜寻信息的成本、谈判缔约的成本、监督履约的成本以及协调行动的成本。科斯指出，当这些交易成本过高时，将经济活动"内部化"——置于由权威而非市场交易管理的企业之中——反而更有效率。这不仅是理论突破，更是观察现代工业文明的全新透镜。因其对交易成本与企业理论的贡献，科斯于1991年荣获诺贝尔经济学奖。

...

然而任何体系皆有裂痕，官僚制度亦不例外。其优势往往恰是软肋所在。例如僵化的等级结构会阻碍知识流动，信息通常只能自上而下单向传递——命令如圣旨般下达，反馈却鲜有同等力度的上行。

这一幕在文学经典中亦能找到回响。吴敬梓《儒林外史》中的范进，正是个饱受科举落第之辱的谦卑书生。岳父胡屠户对他极尽嘲弄，直至范进中举跃升官阶，权力关系瞬间逆转。昔日被讥为无用书生的他，仅因功名加身便被尊称为"范老爷"。人未变而位不同，封建等级之沉重可见一斑。

当代企业中的基层员工，恰似未发迹时的范进。在森严的科层制面前，他们往往选择缄默。因畏惧忤逆上级或挑战现状，只能恭敬称是——正如范进中举前的唯唯诺诺。

写于2025年5月19日

• （40）Chapter 7 of The New Book

Chapter 7 Excerpt

7.1 Whispers of the Flood: Nudging, Nation-Building, and the Legacy of Behavioral Insight

Legend has it that after the fall of the Shang dynasty in ancient China, King Wu of Zhou stood on uncertain ground. He had overthrown a tyrant—King Zhou of Shang—but now faced the far more difficult task of building an enduring dynasty. Seeking wisdom, he turned to an unlikely source: Ji Zi, the virtuous uncle of the very tyrant he had deposed.

What Ji Zi offered was no ordinary counsel. Instead of military tactics or administrative reforms, he gave a parable—a tale of water, willpower, and wisdom.

He spoke of two ancient heroes: Gun and Yu, who were tasked with taming the catastrophic floods that once ravaged the land. Gun, in desperation, tried to stop the water by building walls, dams, and dikes. He fought nature with force, but in doing so, failed spectacularly. The floods returned fiercer than ever, bursting through the barriers, destroying villages, and lives.

But Yu—Gun’s son—chose a different path. Rather than resist the river, he guided it. Yu channeled the floods, carving canals and ditches, allowing the water to flow freely yet harmlessly. This gentle yet effective method brought lasting peace, and Yu became a revered figure in Chinese history—a symbol not just of engineering, but of enlightened governance. What Ji Zi was really offering King Wu was a philosophy of leadership: rule not by blocking but by guiding.

And today, thousands of years later, that same philosophy has found a new name in the modern lexicon of behavioral economics—nudge theory.

Written on May 20, 2025

• （四十）新书第七章

第七章节选

7.1 洪水的低语：助推、国家构建与行为洞察的遗产

传说商朝覆灭后，周武王立于未知之境。他虽推翻了暴君商纣王，却面临更艰巨的使命——建立一个永恒的王朝。为求治国之道，他转向了一位意想不到的智者：箕子，那位被他推翻的暴君的贤德叔父。

箕子献上的并非寻常谋略。他未言兵法治国，而是讲了一则关于水、意志与智慧的寓言。

他提及两位远古治水英雄——鲧与禹。彼时洪水肆虐九州，鲧心急如焚，筑高墙、垒堤坝，试图以蛮力降伏洪流。然其逆天而行，终遭惨败。洪水愈发暴烈，冲破屏障，吞噬村庄与生灵。

而禹——鲧之子——选择了一条截然不同的路。他不再与江河对抗，转而疏导水势。禹开凿沟渠，引洪入道，任其奔流却无害于民。这般温和却卓绝的治水之法终换得长治久安，禹亦成为华夏史册中备受尊崇的象征——不仅是水利工程的先驱，更是开明治理的化身。箕子借此寓言向周武王揭示的，实为一种治国哲学：为君者当善导而非强堵。

千载之后，这一古老智慧在现代行为经济学中获得了新名——助推理论。

写于2025年5月20日

• （41）Epilogue of The New Book

Epilogue: The Inflection Point

It began like so many turning points do—not with a bang, but a flicker.

A post. Unremarkable. Off-script. Buried deep within the company’s corporate feed, written by a junior staffer late at night. A question posed not to promote, but to understand:

“What’s one thing we could do better—together?”

At first, silence.

Then, a reply.

Then ten.

Then hundreds.

Something shifted. Internally, Slack threads lit up with links and reactions. Externally, the brand’s mentions spiked—not with outrage or applause, but with a peculiar kind of resonance. People weren’t reacting—they were joining in.

Executives watched in quiet disbelief as dashboards ticked upward. Sentiment charts turned from red to gold. The models couldn’t explain it. Predictive algorithms flagged it as anomalous. But the signals were clear: engagement, cohesion, trust—all climbing.

Yet alongside the ascent came risk.

A single off-message post. A misinterpreted thread. A coordinated troll swarm. The same network effect that ignites collaboration can just as easily fuel collapse. One poorly timed message could unravel the entire surge.

This is the paradox of corporate social media in the AI era: a force both generative and volatile. A network of immense intelligence—and uncontrollable emotion.

But what happened next defied both cynicism and control.

Rather than fracture, the conversation deepened. Engineers weighed in beside marketers. Customers proposed features. Former critics turned into advocates—not because they were persuaded, but because they were heard.

The company’s internal social platform mirrored the change. Knowledge once hoarded was now shared. Silence gave way to spontaneous mentorship. Ideas that once died in inboxes now flourished in threads viewed by thousands.

The transformation wasn’t orchestrated.

It emerged.

And therein lies the lesson.

In a world dominated by precision and prediction, the most profound outcomes may still be born from moments of unstructured humanity—when a system designed to measure begins to listen, when a tool designed to broadcast starts to respond.

Corporate social media, once dismissed as a “chicken rib,” became the nerve center of renewal. It did not eliminate uncertainty—it channeled it. It did not prevent chaos—it surfaced meaning from it.

The companies that will thrive in this new age will not be the ones that fear unpredictability, but the ones that invite it. They will not seek to control the narrative—they will learn to co-author it.

Because in the right hands—and the right minds—AI-empowered corporate social media does more than connect people.

It reveals them.

It begins not with strategy, but sincerity.

Not with certainty, but curiosity.

And sometimes, all it takes is a single voice—unseen, unheard, unexpected—to ignite a movement that changes everything.

The signal has been sent.

Are we listening?

Written on May 21, 2025

• （四十一）新书尾声

尾声：转折点

一切重大转折往往如此开始——不是轰鸣，而是一丝微光。

一篇帖子。平平无奇。偏离脚本。深埋在公司的官方动态中，由一名基层员工深夜撰写。它没有鼓吹，而是真诚发问：

“我们可以一起改进的一件事是什么？”

起初，寂静。

接着，一条回复。

然后十条。

继而数百条。

某些东西改变了。内部，Slack频道被链接和反应刷屏；外部，品牌提及量激增——无关愤怒或赞美，而是一种奇特的共鸣。人们不再被动反应——他们正在参与。

高管们沉默地注视着飙升的数据面板。情绪图表由红转金。数据模型无法解释。预测算法将其标记为异常。但信号无比清晰：参与度、凝聚力、信任感——全线上扬。

然而攀升伴随风险。

一条偏离基调的回复。一段被曲解的对话。一场有组织的恶意围攻。激发协作的网络效应，同样能轻易引发崩塌。一条不合时宜的消息就可能让浪潮溃散。

这就是AI时代企业社交媒体的悖论：既是创造力引擎，也是不稳定因素。一个充满智慧却无法控制情绪的神经网络。

但接下来的发展超越了所有的控制。

对话没有分裂，反而深化。工程师与营销人员并肩讨论，顾客提出功能建议，曾经的批评者转为支持者——并非被说服，而是被倾听。

公司的内部社交平台同步蜕变。曾被囤积的知识开始流动，沉默让位于自发指导，曾经在收件箱夭折的想法如今在千人关注的讨论串中生长。

这场变革未经策划。

它是自然涌现的。

而启示正在于此。

在由精确与预测主导的世界里，最深刻的变革仍可能源于无框架的人性时刻——当为测量而设计的系统开始倾听，当为广播而打造的工具学会回应。

曾被视作“鸡肋”的企业社交媒体，成了复兴的中枢神经。它未消除不确定性，而是引导了不确定性；未阻止混乱，而是从混乱中浮显意义。

新时代的赢家不会是恐惧不可预测性的企业，而是拥抱它的企业。它们不会试图控制叙事，而是学会共同书写叙事。

因为在合适的“手”与“心”中，AI赋能的企业社交媒体不止连接人群。

它揭示人性。

起点不是策略，而是真诚。

不是确定性，而是好奇心。

有时，只需一个未被看见、未被倾听、出人意料的声音——便能点燃改变一切的运动。

信号已经发出。

我们是否在聆听？

写于2025年5月21日

• （42）Andy's 90th Birthday Party I

It is a great honor to attend this special conference, “The Impact of Information Systems Research: Past, Present, and Future,” celebrating my advisor Andy’s 90th birthday and his extraordinary achievements. I brought something special with me — a real artifact. A hat, which proudly reads “Andy’s Army,” was given to me 14 years ago at a conference much like this one. It’s hard to believe how quickly time has flown since then. At that time, I was still a doctoral student. I vividly remember the first time I met Andy — he handed me a paper as a gift. It turned out to be a truly generous gift, as that one paper went on to inspire five of my own publications. I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have had Andy as my advisor. He not only guided me into the IS field but also helped me become part of a vibrant academic family. Andy’s legacy lives on not only in his remarkable body of work, but in the people he has mentored, the ideas he has shaped, and the inspiration he continues to spark in all of us. My heartfelt thanks to the conference co-chairs, Sulin Ba and Alok Gupta, and to the local chair, Wen Wen, for organizing such a meaningful and memorable event.

Written on May 25, 2025

• （四十二）Andy 的九十大寿聚会（一）

能参加这场特别的会议——“信息系统研究的影响：过去、现在与未来”，庆祝我的导师 Andy 的九十岁生日及其卓越成就，我深感荣幸。我带来了一件特别的纪念物——一顶帽子，上面骄傲地印着 “Andy’s Army” 字样。这顶帽子是十四年前在一个类似的会议上收到的，时光飞逝令人难以置信。那时我还是个博士生，至今仍清晰记得初见 Andy 的场景——他将一篇论文作为礼物递给我。这份礼物非常特殊，因为它激发了我后续五篇文章的灵感。能有 Andy 作我的导师，我深感幸运。他不仅引领我进入信息系统领域，更让我融入了一个充满活力的学术大家庭。Andy 的影响力不仅存在于他杰出的学术成果中，更延续于他指导过的人、塑造过的思想，以及持续给予我们的灵感火花。衷心感谢会议联合主席 Sulin Ba 与 Alok Gupta，以及本地主席 Wen Wen，为我们筹办如此意义深远且难忘的盛会。

写于2025年5月25日