Publications

Malaria

Ronald Ross pioneered mathematical models as a tool for studying malaria transmission and control, and his ideas and models spurred development of metrics for measuring malaria transmission. George Macdonald refined the models and synthesized five decades of research on malaria transmission. Professor Smith is interested in the history and development of the Ross-Macdonald model, and the research it has inspired today.

Smith's research on malaria builds on that work, covering transmission dynamics, metrics & metrology, epidemiology, mosquito ecology & vector control, mosquito and human mobility and malaria importation, antimalarial drugs, evolution of antimalarial drug resistance, elimination feasibility assessments and scenario planning, and strategic planning for malaria eradication.

Metrics, Maps, & Models

Making decisions about malaria policy requires a synthesis of good medical intelligence, including what is known about the geographical range of malaria, the intensity of transmission within that range, and the methods that can be used to control malaria. Large databases describing malaria metrics and vectors have now been assembled and analyzed, and they are being curated by the Malaria Atlas Project. Synthesis of that data for policy purposes inevitably involves the use of statistical or mechanistic models, or possibly some combination of the two.

Professor Smith's research, in collaboration with the Malaria Atlas Project, the Clinton Health Access Initiative, WorldPOP, and RAPIDD, and the Malaria Modeling Consortium, is working to improve the evidence base and provide robust policy support for malaria initiatives, including elimination.

Evolution of Resistance

Using drugs and pesticides opens up an ecological void for resistant organisms to fill. The evolution of resistance seems to be the inevitable outcome of heavy drug or pesticide pressure, but these chemicals play a critical role in public health. How can drugs and pesticides be used to best effect to maximize their benefits?

Answering questions about the evolution of resistance and resistance management inevitably involves understanding the complicated behaviors and economics of drug use and the biology of resistance. The questions are not just about how an organisms genotype translates into phenotype and undermines health, but also how those resistant pathogens spread in populations, how human behavior affects the process, and how institutions respond.