Working Papers

Impacts of the Four-Day School Week on Early Elementary Achievement (with Katherine Gunter, John M. Schuna Jr., Emily J. Tomayko, and Megan McClelland)

Abstract: Previous literature has shown detrimental achievement impacts of the four-day school week for upper elementary and middle school students. In this paper we consider the academic implications of the four-day school week for early elementary students and how kindergarten readiness influences these four-day school week impacts by the time students reach 3^rd grade. We observed minimal differences between 3^rd grade achievement scores of four-day and five-day students, but these overall effects appear to mask heterogeneity across the spectrum of these students’ previous scores on readiness for kindergarten assessment. When examining variability across the distribution of pre-kindergarten self-regulation and early math assessment scores, we found 3^rd grade achievement was most negatively impacted by the transition to the four-day school week among students who are most socioemotionally and academically ready for school.

Excellence for all? University Honors Programs and Human Capital Formation (with Todd Pugatch)

Abstract: Can public university honors programs deliver the benefits of selective undergraduate education within otherwise nonselective institutions? We evaluate the impact of admission to the Honors College at Oregon State University, a large nonselective public university. Admission to the Honors College depends heavily on a numerical application score. Nonlinearities in admissions probabilities as a function of this score allow us to compare applicants with similar scores,but different admissions outcomes, via a fuzzy regression kink design. The first stage is strong,with takeup of Honors College programming closely following nonlinearities in admissions prob-abilities. To estimate the causal effect of Honors College admission on human capital formation,we use these nonlinearities in the admissions function as instruments, combined with course-section fixed effects to account for strategic course selection. Honors College admission increases course grades by 0.10 grade points on the 0-4 scale, or 0.14 standard deviations. Effects are concentrated at the top of the course grade distribution. Previous exposure to Honors sections of courses in the same subject is a leading potential channel for increased grades. However,course grades of first-generation students decrease in response to Honors admission, driven by low performance in natural science courses. Results suggest that selective Honors programs can accelerate skill acquisition for high-achieving students at public universities, but not all students benefit from Honors admission.

Agenda-Setting and Tax Referenda: Implications for Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Election Outcomes (with Michael Conlin), under review, Online Appendix

Abstract: Public economists have often faced significant challenges associated with credibly estimating the welfare effects of locally provided public goods. Recently, researchers have begun using a regression discontinuity identification strategy that uses local tax referendum election results to attempt to solve this identification problem and credibly estimate the impact of increases in local public good provision on home prices, expenditures, and student academic performance. While these regression discontinuity strategies are becoming increasingly popular, they often fail to address the validity issues associated with the ability of local officials to manipulate the closeness cutoff by their selection of the tax rate, the type of tax, the purpose for the tax, and when the referendum appears on the ballot. Similar to much of the existing literature, this paper finds no difference in jurisdiction characteristics across the election closeness cutoff. However, we do find regression discontinuities for the referendum and election characteristics over which the taxing authority has discretion. Specifically, we find statistically significant discontinuities in the: (i) tax revenue purpose for municipality/township referenda; (ii) tax rates and voter turnout for school district referenda; and (iii) voter age and political affiliation for county referenda. This is expected based on greater state restrictions imposed on the tax rate and election timing for municipality, township and county referenda relative to school district referenda, and the fungibility of municipality and township general fund expenditures. We also find that the discontinuity of home prices at the closeness cutoff is similar whether we use home sales before or after the referendum election. These findings bring into question the validity of the regression discontinuity identification strategy when the taxing authority has discretion in terms of the structure and timing of the referendum.

Ballot Order and Ballot Roll-Off: Evidence from Local Referenda in Ohio (with Michael Conlin and Walter Melnik), new draft in progress, older draft

Abstract: We study how an election item’s position on the ballot affects the probability that voters abstain from voting on that item (“roll-off”), and on the probability that voters choose to vote yes conditional on casting a ballot. Local tax referenda in Ohio rotate ballot position every year based on the level of local jurisdiction that placed the referendum on the ballot, providing a source of exogenous variation to test these propositions. Previous research suggests that voters are less likely to cast a vote for election items lower on the ballot, and more likely to choose the status quo. These findings support the idea of choice fatigue, suggesting that facing more decisions impairs voters’ decision making ability. Unlike previous papers, we are able to control for demographic characteristics (age and party affiliation) of voters who see each referendum. We find that voters tend to cast more yes votes for items lower on the ballot. We also find that older voters are much less likely, and partisan voters much more likely, to abstain from ballot items, showing the importance of controlling for these characteristics when estimating the effect of ballot position on roll-off.

An Evaluation of Teacher Value-Added Estimation with Peer Effects (with Cassie Guarino)

Abstract: The education production function suggests that both teachers and classmates play a role in student performance. Given that the teacher effect and the peer effect are likely highly collinear, what implications does the existence of peer effects have on estimating teacher value added measures? Our paper finds, using data from Monte Carlo simulations, that provided we have at least two cohorts of data per teacher and desire to control for peer effects, an estimator that includes teacher fixed effects and classroom-level covariates is the preferred estimator. The performance of this estimator increases as peer effects become larger relative to the teacher effects. When we move to the one cohort case, none of the estimators that control for classroom covariates perform well when we have nonrandom teacher assignment based on the prior test score. In this case, the estimator that includes teacher fixed effects and classroom-level covariates is no longer preferred since it suffers from the inability to separately identify these two effects. Empirical Bayes' estimators have been motivated as a method that can separately identify these two effects, but these estimators suffer from severe bias due to failing to partial out the correlation between the teacher effect and the assignment mechanism or the peer effect, which hinders their ability to properly rank teachers.

Works in Progress

The Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Juvenile Crime (with Katherine Gunter, Rafi Najam, John M. Schuna Jr., and Emily J. Tomayko)

The Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Physical Education and Student BMI (with Katherine Gunter, John M. Schuna Jr., and Emily J. Tomayko)

The Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Adolescent Health Behaviors (with Katherine Gunter, John M. Schuna Jr., and Emily J. Tomayko)

The Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Food Security (with Katherine Gunter, John M. Schuna Jr., and Emily J. Tomayko)

The Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Parental Labor Supply (with Jason Ward)

External grant projects

Principal Investigator, “Effects of Four-Day School Weeks on Student Achievement and Child and Family Wellbeing” (Spencer Foundation Large Research Grant), January 2021 - December 2022: $373,517 (with Emily J. Tomayko (co-PI), Jason Ward (co-PI), Katherine Gunter, and John M. Schuna Jr.)

Co-Principal Investigator, “Evaluating the effects of four-day school weeks on child and family health, well-being, and socioeconomic factors” (National Institutes of Health R21), September 2020 - August 2022: $408,375 (with Emily J. Tomayko (PI), Katherine Gunter, and John M. Schuna Jr.)

Principal Investigator, “Impacts of Four-Day School Weeks on Academic Achievement and Achievement Gaps” (Russell Sage Foundation), June 2020 - May 2021: $16,248

Principal Investigator, “The effects of shortened school years on school district finances, school programs, and principal and teacher perceptions of school climate” (AERA Research Grant), October 2018 - September 2019: $20,000

Principal Investigator, “Is Four Less than Five? The Effects of Four-day School Weeks on Student Achievement Across Racial, Socioeconomic, and Special Education Subgroups” (Spencer Foundation Small Research Grant), January 2018 - December 2019: $45,664