Projects

AfrADAPT (2023-2026) - Genomic prediction of vulnerability of African crops to future climate - Funded by ANR (France)

Project leader: Y Vigouroux

Scientists involved from our team : Y Vigouroux, P Cubry, N Scarcelli, C Mariac, M Couderc, AC Thuillet, A Barnaud, C Berthouly-Salazar

AfrADAPT seeks to understand whether the distance between the current distribution of crop varieties and the areas where each will be best adapted in predicted future environments can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of crops - and thereby of farmers - to climate change. Variation in crop species is postulated to be affected by particular traits, including gene flow with wild relatives, accumulation of genetic load under domestication, and human cultural preferences. The methodology uses an interesting mix of genetic, cultural and mapping approaches appropriate to its goals.

The overall objective of AfrADAPT is “to perform genomic prediction of vulnerabilities of African crops for a large panel of species, to develop a framework to assess the methods that perform these predictions, and to propose strategies of assisted migration on a broad geographic scale to mitigate climate vulnerabilities.” This objective is linked to three research questions, each linked to one of the three scientific workpackages.

The conceptual framework of the project, and the state of the art, are clearly presented in a few succinct paragraphs. Climate change has already affected species distributions, and will have even greater impact in the future. There is increasing interest in predicting these impacts. The tool for doing this has long been species distribution modelling (SDM), in which the climatic envelope suitable for a species is modelled from species occurrence records and climatic data, and then projected across space and/or through time. However, this approach may ignore significant effects of genetic differences among populations of the same species in physiological tolerance and other traits that affect performance under different conditions (genetic offset): populations are often adapted to local conditions. It follows that with climate change, populations may be maladapted to the changed conditions in which they find themselves.