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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA

Ten Independence Mall

Philadelphia, PA 19106

Phone  :  (215) 574 3813                                             E-mail: pguerron@gmail.com

Fax      :  (215) 574 4303

PERSONAL INFORMATION

Age:                        39

Citizenship:           United States    

 FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION

        Primary:                 Macroeconomics

Secondary:            International Finance, Time Series

 EDUCATION

        Ph.D., Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, 2001 - 2006

M.A.:  Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, 2001 – 2003

M.Sc.: Economics, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas, Mexico City, Mexico, 1999 – 2001

Degree in Electronic Engineering: Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, 1992 – 1998, Summa Cum Laude

EMPLOYMENT

 § Economic Advisor and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 2012 - Present 

 § Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 2011  

§       Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, July 2009 - 2011

§      Adjunct Assistant Professor, Instituto Tecnologico de Monterrey, Quito, Ecuador, March 2007 - August 2008

§ Assistant Professor, North Carolina State University, August 2006 - July 2010

§      Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, August 2007, April 2008 

§      Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Duke University, April 2007 – May 2008 

§      Lecturer, Business and Institutions Program, Northwestern University, 2006

§ Adjunct Assistant Professor, Pontificia Universidad Salesiana, Quito, Ecuador, 1998

§      Manager, Electro-Ecuatoriana, Elevators Division, Quito, Ecuador, 1998 – 1999, 2002 

§      Field Engineer, Tecniequipos, Quito, Ecuador, 1998 

HONORS AND AWARDS

Ø Green Belt Software Developer, Intel Software Network, 2011.

Ø Gill Research Grant, North Carolina State University, 2007 - 2009.

Ø Faculty Research and Professional Development Grant, North Carolina State University, 2007 - 2009.

Ø Distinction in the “Preliminary Exam in Macroeconomics,” Northwestern University, Department of Economics, 2002

Ø University Fellowship, Northwestern University, 2001 – 2002

Ø Outstanding Student Award, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Economicas, 2001

Ø Fellowship, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Economics, 1999 - 2001

Ø Valedictorian, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Commencement Ceremony, 1998

Ø Outstanding Student Award, Department of Electric Engineering, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, 1997.

RESEARCH

Published Papers

Ø  “Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models,” (joint with A. Inoue and L. Kilian) 2013, Quantitative Economics 4, pp: 197-229.

Ø  “Common Factors in Developed Small Open Economies,” Journal of International Economics 90 (2013), pp: 33-49.

Ø  “Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models,” (joint with Jim Nason) Handbook of Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics 2013.

Ø  “Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility,” (joint with J. Fernandez-Villaverde, J. Rubio-Ramirez, and M. Uribe) 2011, 2011, American Economic Review 101, pp: 2530-61.

Ø  “The Implications of Inflation in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (2011), pp: 947-962.

Ø Economic Development and Heterogeneity in the Great Moderation among the States, 2011, forthcoming, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Ø  “What you match does matter: The effects of Data on DSGE Estimation,” Journal of Applied Econometrics 25 (2010), pp: 774-804.

Ø  “Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007,” (joint with J. Fernandez-Villaverde and J. Rubio-Ramirez) 2010, forthcoming, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Ø  “The New Macroeconometrics: A Bayesian Approach,” (joint with J. Fernandez-Villaverde and J. Rubio-Ramirez) 2010, Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, Oxford University Press.

Ø  Economic Development and Heterogeneity in the Great Moderation among the States,” (joint with T. Grennes and A. Leblebicioglu) 2010, Economics Bulletin.

Ø  “Money Demand Heterogeneity and the Great Moderation,” Journal of Monetary Economics 56 (2009), pp: 255-266.

Ø  “Refinements on Macroeconomic Modeling: The Role of Non-Separability and Heterogeneous Labor Supply,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (2008), pp: 3613 – 3630.

Working Papers

§  “Liquidity, Trends, and the Great Recession,” (joint with Ryo Jinnai), February 2014.

§   “Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility” (joint with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramirez), January 2014.

§  “Fiscal Volatility and Economics Activity,” (joint with J. Fernandez-Villaverde, K. Kuester, and J. Rubio-Ramirez), August 2013.

§  "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," (joint with Grey Gordon) March 2013.

§   “Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility” (joint with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan Rubio-Ramirez), January 2014.

§  "Interest Rates and Prices in an Inventory Model of Money and Credit," (joint with Mike Dotsey) January 2014.

§   “Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound” (joint with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Grey Gordon, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez), September 2013.

§  “Do Uncertainty and Technology Drive Exchange Rates?” October 2009.

§  “Financial Innovations: An Alternative Explanation to the Great Moderation,” January, 2008.

§  “Why do Central Bankers Intervene in the FX market? Some New Empirical Evidence,” December, 2006.

 Current Projects

Ø  Estimation of International Business Cycles using multi-country DSGE models

Ø  Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates in Non-Linear DSGE Models (joint with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan Rubio-Ramirez)

Ø  Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity

CONFERENCE AND SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS

§  2010:  North American Meetings Econometric Society (Atlanta), Louisiana State University, University of Delaware, IMF, Econometric Society World Congress (Shanghai, China), Midwest Macro Meetings, Society for Economic Dynamics (Montreal), Drexel University, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

§  2009:  Conference on International Economic Analysis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Workshop on International Economics and Finance (Uruguay), NBER Summer Institute Workshop.

§  2008: The Macroeconomics of Emerging Countries, Mexico City; Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank; Society for Economic Dynamics, Boston MA; Conference on Computing in Finance and Economics, Paris; Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, Philadelphia PA; North American Meeting Econometric Society, Pittsburgh PA.

§  2007: The Econometrics Triangle Annual Meetings, Durham NC; Workshop on Methods and Applications for DSGE Models, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank; Duke University; Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association meetings, Bogota Colombia; North Carolina State University, Raleigh NC; North American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Durham NC.

§  2006: The Econometrics Triangle Annual Meetings, Durham NC; Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Mexico City;  North Carolina State University, Raleigh NC; Triangle Dynamic Macro Group, Duke University; Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin; Bank of Canada; Rutgers University; North Carolina State University.

§  2003 - 2005: Northwestern University, Corporacion Andina de Fomento, Venezuela. 

Other Activities

Referee for American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Journal of Monetary Economics (3), Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Money Credit and Banking (2), Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Southern Journal of Economics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Canadian Journal of Economics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2), Journal of Economic Surveys, Journal of International Economics (2), Journal of Economics and Business, Review of Economic and Statistics, Review of Economic Studies.

 

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