UK Referendum Shock

The outcome of the United Kingdom (UK) referendum on 23 June 2016 by a majority of 51.9 % to leave the European Union(EU) has caused political turmoil in the country and sent shock waves around the world. It plunged markets into crisis, wiping billions off shares, a decline in sterling, and the UK losing its AAA rating, leading to some bitterness and recriminations. It led to the UK Prime Minister David Cameron announcing his decision to resign, leadership struggles in the two big divided political parties and division across the state. The outcome has damaged the UK itself as an entity with Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to remain. It highlighted huge geographical divisions, with the London area and the cities of Liverpool, Manchester and Cardiff voting to remain, as well as big social division in terms of age, social class, city and country.

The UK was not a founding member of the European Economic Community, the precursor of the EU, in 1957. It joined in January 1, 1973, with Ireland and Denmark, but from the start it did not seem to be fully committed and appeared to be semi-detached for some time. A constant narrative of negativity of the EU in the UK had a cumulative corrosive effect, which contributed to the decision to leave. During the campaign, the big issues were immigration, sovereignty and contribution to the EU budget (which ignored many receipts like those from the Common Agricultural Policy, research grants and many others). The Brexit result was chiefly a protest against mass immigration and the inability of local communities to assimilate the newcomers. It was not a zenophobic or racist reaction as portrayed by some in the EU, but it was a statement about national identity and sovereignty.

The decision has huge implications for the European project. The EU is seen by many as a big bureaucratic oligarchy exercising enormous control over people’s lives without transparency and accountability. As the EU expanded and integrated, it gradually lost touch with its citizens. There is a conflict between the aspirations of its leaders and the citizens of member states. EU responses to the banking crises in and after 2008 created a lot of resentment in Ireland and elsewhere. It is seen by many as micro-managing various issues that could better be left to member states. Reform is necessary and it could be far more democratic. It now has to formulate a clear vision for future direction and secure the full support of member states for it.

What are the options for the UK? As the fifth biggest economy in the world, separation will not be easy. First, it has to decide what it wants and give notice under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of its intention to withdraw. The process has to be completed within two years from the date of notice. If the EU joins the EEA, the European Economic Area with Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, it can get access to the Single Market, but it will have to make a budget contribution to the EU and accept four freedoms: free movement of goods, services, people and capital. Having regard to the result of the referendum, this will be difficult. However, some flexibility with regard to free movement may be possible in special circumstance. If the UK opts out fully, tariffs and barriers to trade are inevitable. In the UK, where parliament is supreme, the result of the referendum is advisory in nature. In that context, the possibility of a second referendum cannot be ruled out. When the terms of the alternative are finalised, they could be put to a referendum with a specification that any change to the June 2016 decision would require a vote of say 60%.

The terms negotiated with the UK are very important for Ireland. As the only country with a land border with the UK, it wants a situation as close to the Single Market as possible. It also has a Common Travel Area with the UK, which long pre-dates the EEC. The EU is a generous supporter of the peace process in Northern Ireland. Ireland and the UK are big trading partners and neither country would want that damaged. There is a period of great uncertainty ahead before any outcome is finalised.

Bernard O'Hara's latest book entitled Killasser: Heritage of a Mayo Parish is now on sale in the USA and UK as a paperback book at amazon.com, amazon.co.uk or Barnes and Noble

It is also available as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).

An earlier publication, a concise biography of Michael Davitt, entitled Davitt by Bernard O’Hara published in 2006 by Mayo County Council , is now available as Davitt: Irish Patriot and Father of the Land League by Bernard O’Hara, which was published in the USA by Tudor Gate Press (www.tudorgatepress.com) and is available from amazon.com and amazon.co.uk. It can be obtained as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).