Irish General Election February 2016

The fragmentation in Irish politics, which was evident for a few years with a big increase in support for independents and small parties, was reflected in the February 2016 general election. The outgoing coalition government of Fine Gael (centre-right) and Labour (centre-left) was decisively defeated, but no clear winner emerged. In a parliament with the number of seats reduced from 166 to 158, Fine Gael fell from 67 members to 50 and Labour from 36 to 7. The Fine Gael slogan ‘keep the recovery going’, did not capture the mood of the electorate where some experienced no improvement and it did not reach all regions. Labour’s big problem was the promises made prior to and during the 2011 general election. Apart from new promises, they had opposed every cutback made by the then Fianna Fail/Green Government, creating the impression that these would be changed if they were in government. Sinn Fein, opposing all cutbacks, increased their seats from 14 to 23. Fianna Fail, who suffered a catastrophic defeat in 2011, increased their seats from 20 to 44 with a big emphasis on fairness. Independents won 23 seats, the Anti-Austerity/People Before Profit 6 seats, Social Democrats 3 and the Green Party 2. Traditionally, since independence Irish governments were led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, with Labour supporting one or the other if no majority emerged. Consequently, there was little change in economic policies following a change of government. An interesting outcome was the election of 35 women in 2016, 22.1% of all deputies, compared with 25 in 2011. This change arose from the introduction of controversial gender quotas. State funding for political parties was to be reduced by 50 per cent unless 30 per cent of their candidates were women and 30% were men. This change had the desired effect.

Following the economic, banking and fiscal crises in 2008, achieving new demanding macro-economic targets came with a political cost, with declining support for parties in government. In the February 2011 general election, a seismic change took place in the Irish political landscape. The Fine Gael party won twenty-five seats to bring its total to the highest ever at seventy-six, Labour won seventeen to bring its total to thirty-seven, Sinn Féin secured fourteen (up by nine), and Others (chiefly Independents) secured nineteen (up by fourteen). The dominant political party since 1932, Fianna Fáil, lost fifty-eight seats and came back with a mere twenty, while their partners in the outgoing Government, the Greens, lost all six seats. Irish people voted for major changes and a new dawn, but the economic, fiscal, banking, personal debt and unemployment issues facing the new Government were huge. The Fine Gael/Labour Government followed the economic plan of its predecessor with some small changes, based on retrenchment, because it had little choice as it had been agreed with the troika providing the funding to bridge the fiscal deficit and re-structure the banks. The troika left on December 15, 2013, which was a big achievement of that administration, reflected in reducing the fiscal deficit, increasing employment, reducing unemployment from over 15% in 2011 to 8.8% in February 2016 and re-structuring the banks.

After six years of austerity in 2014, a proposal to introduce a water charge on each household led to street protests, but they were really a response to the cumulative effects of all the cutbacks, tax increases and other charges imposed since 2008. The financial retrenchment has several social effects, with many, especially the unemployed and those on low incomes, finding it difficult to meet their needs. This despondency led to strong political support for critics of austerity and big disillusionment with the established political parties. As a result, the two big right wing parties were only able to command just less fifty per cent of votes between them in 2016 (Fine Gael 25.52 % and Fianna Fail 24.35%), something which would be deemed incredible a few years ago. Both parties dominated the Irish politics since 1922, with one of them leading every government since independence. The big question now is who will form the new government? The most stable would perhaps be a coalition or partnership of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Such a development would finally end any remaining vestiges of civil war polities, and lead to a right left divide in the country, at a time when this traditional paradigm is being challenged in other countries. The figures make it difficult to form a stable minority or power-sharing administration.

Bernard O'Hara's latest book entitled Killasser: Heritage of a Mayo Parish is now on sale in the USA and UK as a paperback book at amazon.com, amazon.co.uk or Barnes and Noble

It is also available as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).

An earlier publication, a concise biography of Michael Davitt, entitled Davitt by Bernard O’Hara published in 2006 by Mayo County Council , is now available as Davitt: Irish Patriot and Father of the Land League by Bernard O’Hara, which was published in the USA by Tudor Gate Press (www.tudorgatepress.com) and is available from amazon.com and amazon.co.uk. It can be obtained as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).