Publications
Articles
[Updated 7.3.2024]
Discount Rates and Cash Flows: A Local Projection Approach
(with Matthijs Lof)
Journal of Banking & Finance, forthcoming 2024
Robust Signal Dimension Estimation via SURE
(with Joni Virta and Niko Lietzén)
Statistical Papers, 2023
Risk-Return Trade-off in International Stock Returns: Skewness and Business Cycles
(with Christos Savva)
Econometrics and Statistics, forthcoming 2024
A Thousand Words Tell More Than Just Numbers: Financial Crises and Historical Headlines
(with Kim Ristolainen and Tomi Roukka)
Journal of Financial Stability, 70, 101209 (2024)
See also the produced data on historical economic news article topic series
Forecasting U.S. Interest Rates and Business Cycle with a Nonlinear Regime Switching VAR Model
Journal of Forecasting, 37, 1 - 15 (2018)
Noncausality and the Commodity Currency Hypothesis
(with Matthijs Lof)
Energy Economics, 65, 424 - 433 (2017)
Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition for Linear and Nonlinear Multivariate Models
(with Markku Lanne)
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78, 595 - 603 (2016)
The Risk of Financial Crises: Is There a Role for Income Inequality?
(with Karolin Kirschenmann and Tuomas Malinen).
Journal of International Money and Finance 68, 161 - 180 (2016).
International Sign Predictability of Stock Returns: The Role of the United States
(with Harri Pönkä)
Economic Modelling, 58, 323–338 (2016)
Forecasting with a noncausal VAR model
(with Pentti Saikkonen)
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 76, 536 - 555 (2014)
A Bivariate Autoregressive Probit Model: Business Cycle Linkages and Transmission of Recession Probabilities
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18, 838 – 862 (2014)
Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models
Journal of Banking & Finance, 37, 3351 - 3363 (2013)
Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns over the Business Cycle
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 47, 137 - 158 (2012)
Does Noncausality Help in Forecasting Economic Time Series?
(with Markku Lanne and Erkka Saarinen)
Economics Bulletin, 32, 2849 - 2859 (2012)
Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models
International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 561 - 578 (2011)
Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting
Journal of Forecasting, 29, 215 - 230 (2010)
Testing an Autoregressive Structure in Binary Time Series Models
Economics Bulletin, 30, 1460 - 1473 (2010)
Monographs
Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance
PhD thesis (2010)
Published in Research Reports, Dissertationes Oeconomicae, No. 122, 2010, Economics, University of Helsinki
ISBN:978-952-10-5353-5
(see also OP-Pohjola Group's Doctoral Thesis Award (2010), awarded in Feb. 2011)