Publications

• Unbundling Polarization (with Chad Kendall and Francesco Trebbi)

Published Version. See also the Working Paper (pdf) and on SSRN. Previously, NBER WP 25110.

Coverage: USC Marshall, UH

Econometrica, May 2020, 88(3), p.1197-1233

• Estimating Local Interactions Among Many Agents Who Observe Their Neighbors (with Jacob Schwartz and Kevin Song). 

Published Version. See also Working Paper (pdf with Supplementary Material), also on the Arxiv. 

Quantitative Economics, July 2020, 11(3), p.917-956 

• Counterfactual Analysis under Partial Identification Using Locally Robust Refinement (with Kevin Song)  

Published Version. See also Working Paper (pdf with Supplementary Material), also on the Arxiv.

Journal of Applied Econometrics, June/July 2021, 36(4), p.416-436

• Political Distortions, State Capture, and Economic Development in Africa (with Leonard Wantchekon)

Published Version. See also Working Paper (pdf). Also on SSRN.

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2022, 36(1), p.101-124

• Political Uncertainty and the Forms of State Capture (with Rafael Ch and Leonard Wantchekon).  

Published Version. Accepted Version. Also on SSRN.  Questionnaire used in the field.

Journal of Development Economics, January 2023, 160, 102972

• How Campaign Ads Stimulate Political Interest (with Gregory J. Martin) 

Published Version. See also Working Paper (pdf).  Also on SSRN. 

Review of Economics and Statistics, March 2023, 105(2), p.292-310

• Social Interactions  and Legislative Activity (with Matthew O. Jackson and Francesco Trebbi)

Published Version. See also Working Paper Version, also on SSRN.  A previous version was circulated as NBER WP 22756.  

Previously "Endogenous Networks and Legislative Activity" and "Endogenous Network Formation in Congress". Media Coverage: Chicago Booth Review.

Journal of the European Economic Association, June 2023, 21(3), p. 1072-1118

Selected for the Virtual Special Issue of Best Papers Edited by Bard Harstad

• Belief Elicitation in Political Protest Experiments: When the Mode Does Not Teach Us About Incentives to Protest (with Anujit Chakraborty). 

Published Version. See also Working Paper Version and SSRN. An older version is available on Arxiv 

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, December 2023, 216, p.320-331

• Inference in Linear Dyadic Data Models with Network Spillovers (with Ko Sugiura)

Published Version. See also Working Paper Version. Also on the Arxiv. 

Political Analysis, July 2024, 32(3), p.311-328

• Quantifying Theory in Politics: Identification, Interpretation and the Role of Structural Methods (with Kristopher Ramsay)

Published Version. See also Working Paper Version. Also on the Arxiv and SSRN. 

Journal of Theoretical Politics, October 2024, 36(4), p.301-327. (Lead Article)

• Mitigating Policy Uncertainty: What Financial Markets Reveal About Firm-Level Lobbying (with Kristy Buzard and Sebastian Saiegh)

pdf Version. Also on SSRN. - (April 25, 2025).

American Journal of Political Science, Accepted Subject to Minor Revisions.

Working Papers

• Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018 (with Chad Kendall and Francesco Trebbi) 

pdf Version.   Also on SSRN. Previously NBER WP 28296- (June 29, 2023)

Media Coverage: FD (Netherlands)

Revised and Resubmitted (3rd round), Journal of Political Economy

• Measuring Democracy Using the Wisdom of the Crowds (with Anujit Chakraborty)

pdf Version. Also CEPR Discussion Paper #20551 and on SSRN. NEW! (August 5, 2025)

• Innovation Adoption by Committee: Evaluating Decision-Making in the FDA (with Matias Iaryczower)

pdf Version. Also NBER WP 32787. Funded by NSF Grant #2214796 (Economics) - NEW! (July 27, 2024)

• A Decomposition Approach to Counterfactual Analysis in Game-Theoretic Models (with Kevin Song)

pdf Version. Also on the Arxiv. - UPDATED!  (April 7, 2025)

• Simple Inference on a Simplex-Valued Weight (with Kevin Song)

pdf Version. Also on the Arxiv. - NEW! (January 26, 2025).

• Synthetic Decomposition for Counterfactual Predictions (with Kevin Song).

pdf Version. Also on the Arxiv and Warwick Economics Working Paper Series. - UPDATED! (January 26, 2025) 

Work in Progress

• Multidimensional Learning in Committee Deliberations (with Perry Carter and Matias Iaryczower)

• Learning Under the Shadow of Regulation (with Matias Iaryczower)

• Information Accumulation and the Timing of Voting Decisions. 

Previous version - pdf Version.