Inductive Logic
Phil 61, sect. 1 Fall 2026
MW, 12:00-1:15pm, Sequoia Hall 102
Department of Philosophy
College of Arts and Letters
Catalog Description for Inductive Logic. Introduction to inductive logic and the problem of decision under uncertainty. Topics include: the nature of inductive rationality, philosophical theories of induction and probability, cognitive biases and common errors in inductive reasoning, and philosophical problems in defining risk, rational agency, and the expected value of an action.
Uncertainty—that is appropriate for matters of this world. Only regarding the next can we vouchsafe certainty. I believe certainty regarding that which we can see and touch, it is seldom justified, if ever. Down the ages from our remote past, what certainties survive? And yet we hurry to fashion new ones, wanting their comfort. --Joel and Ethan Cohen
Class Structure: This course meets in person with supplemental online lectures. All assessments for the grade are in-person. All of the readings, and links are listed in the Course Schedule.
No smart phone use, unless explicitly instructed by the professor, will be allowed in class.
Students may use a laptop in class for notes, but to minimize distractions for the rest of the class, please only have course materials on your screen.
Required Texts:
All readings are free and linked on the schedule. For a textbook supplement, not required, get: An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic, by Ian Hacking
Specific reading assignments are all listed on the Course Schedule.
Learning Objectives: By the end of the course, students who pass the class will understand:
the difference between deductive and inductive logic.
the basic axioms of probability and the concept of conditional probability.
how to use the basic concepts and axioms of probability to calculate probabilities of specific outcomes.
Bayes Rules and how to use it to calculate conditional probabilities.
various systematic ways in which people err when making intuitive assessments of probabilities.
the concept of expected value and how to do basic expected value calculations under conditions of uncertainty.
how people err when making decision based on intuitive assessments of utility and risk.
basic philosophical accounts of the nature of probability.
G.E. Learning Outcomes for Area B4:
Is an introductory or survey course with no college level prerequisites.
Develops basic mathematical or logical concepts, quantitative reasoning skills, and has general applicability in solving problems.
Develops computational skills or competence in the analysis of arguments.
Specific Criteria:
A student will be able to solve problems by thinking logically, making conjectures, and constructing valid mathematical arguments.
A student will be able to make valid inferences from numerical, graphical and symbolic information.
A student will be able to apply mathematical reasoning to both abstract and applied problems, and to both scientific and non-scientific problems.
Students' abilities to meet these outcome goals will be evaluated with Quizzes and Tests
Here is the course grade structure:
Quizzes: Best 8 out of 9, times 5% each = 40%
Tests: Best 4 out of 5, times 15% each = 60%
All quizzes and tests will be administered, including the final examination. After all have been completed, the lowest score will be dropped. The four remaining tests will count for 15% each = 60%, and the 8 quizzes will count for 5% each - 40%
Attendance Policy: regular attendance to every class is expected. Students who miss class or who are late miss important course information and typically do worse in the course.
Missed Tests and Excused Absences: Tests must normally be taken at the scheduled date and time. Makeup tests are not offered for ordinary absences, scheduling conflicts, or failure to attend. Students who miss a test because of an absence protected or excused under Sacramento State policy or applicable law will be given a reasonable opportunity to complete an equivalent makeup assessment. When an absence is foreseeable, students should notify me as early as reasonably possible; emergencies and unexpected illnesses should be reported as soon as practicable. Students are responsible for contacting me promptly to arrange any authorized makeup work.
Grading Policy: Here, on a 100 point scale, is how graded work, weighted according to percentages in the chart above, will be graded:
A 93-99
A- 90-92
B+ 87-89
B 83-86
B- 80-82
C+ 77-79
C 73-76
C- 70-72
D+ 67-69
D 63-66
D- 60-62
F 50-59
Here is a link to the Philosophy Department Grading Standards that gives details about what sort of work is considered A, B, C, D, or F work for Philosophy Papers, By extension, similar standards apply to tests, quizzes, journal entries, and homework assignments of the sort required in Inductive Logic.
A= Excellent, or very well done.
B= Superior, or well done.
C= Satisfactory or adequate.
D= Serious Weaknesses, or unsatisfactory.
F= Unacceptable
No cheating and no violations of the Academic Honesty Policy of any sort will be tolerated in this course. All sources must be cited and given appropriate credit. The author of any information from the Internet or another student from class must be given credit; using such information without indicating the source is stealing someone else's hard work and it is immoral. Cutting and pasting someone else's work is not acceptable. It is also unacceptable to make minor revisions in language to disguise someone else's sentences/ideas. Submitting work from a cheating website or from other students is a violation of the policy.
It is unacceptable to do any coursework for anyone else, either in the course now, or in the future. If anyone approaches you to take a quiz, or do a course assignment for them, notify me immediately. Any students caught violating this or any of the other academic honesty policies will be failed from the course and reported to the administration for disciplinary action, within the bounds of the University Policy Manual.
From the university policy manual: Plagiarism at Sacramento State includes but is not limited to:
The act of incorporating into one’s own work the ideas, words, sentences, paragraphs, or parts thereof, or the specific substance of another’s work without giving appropriate credit thereby representing the product as entirely one's own. Examples include not only word-for-word copying, but also the "mosaic" (i.e., interspersing a few of one’s own words while, in essence, copying another’s work), the paraphrase (i.e., rewriting another’s work while still using the other’s fundamental idea or theory); fabrication (i.e., inventing or counterfeiting sources), ghost-writing (i.e., submitting another’s work as one’s own) and failure to include quotation marks on material that is otherwise acknowledged; and
Representing as one’s own another’s artistic or scholarly works such as musical compositions, computer programs, photographs, paintings, drawing, sculptures, or similar works.
Collaboration: Students are allowed, even encouraged, to discuss lectures, readings, and assignments with each other. But every student must do his or her own work. Be cautious of sharing your notes, ideas, work, assignments, or papers with other students. Once you have given them a copy of or access to your work, you cannot control what they might do with it. If two or more students' work are found to violate the policy, all of the students will receive the same punishment, even if one did the work and the other plagiarized. Also beware of relationships with other students in which you stand to lose more than you gain. A student who freeloads off of your hard work might elevate his or her grade (or he might bring yours down) without working, and you get no benefit. Furthermore, you put yourself at risk for severe penalties for cheating.
Here is part of the university policy on academic honesty:
The attempt by a student to cheat on an exam or other academic assignment or to engage in plagiarism is a violation of a fundamental principle of academic honesty and integrity and will not be tolerated in the University. Formal procedures exist for dealing with these cases and penalties will be imposed on students who are found guilty of academic dishonesty. In the event of expulsion, suspension or probation, a notation is made on the student’s transcript. Suspension and probation notations remain on the transcript for the life of the suspension/probation. For information, contact the office of the Vice President for Student Affairs.
All students will be responsible for reading and following the university honesty, plagiarism, and cheating policies. They are posted at:
Student Support Services
Disability Access
Sacramento State is committed to ensuring an accessible learning environment. If you believe you require disability-related academic adjustments for this class, contact the Disability Access Center (DAC) to discuss eligibility and accommodations. Approved accommodations should be communicated to the instructor as early as possible.
Disability Access Center: 916-278-6955.
Students with accommodations that are certified by the Services to Students with Disabilities office are entitled to reasonable accommodations in the course in order to meet course curriculum requirements. Students are not absolved or exempt from any course requirements in virtue of a disability, however, in consultation with the instructor we will work some reasonable accommodations that make it possible for the student to meet those requirements.
Note that the instructor must receive notice as soon as possible, preferably before the course starts or within the first two weeks, in order to accommodate, and if course assessment modalities are to be adjusted, then it will require a reasonable amount of time to reconfigure.
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Phone: 916-278-6461.
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Student Health and Counseling Services: 916-278-6461
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