STAT 4010 - Bayesian Learning
2025 Spring
Class Information
Class time: Th 0930-1215
Location: ERB 407
Outline: 2025Spring_S4010_outline.pdf
Password: <See Blackboard>
Instructor
Name: Kin Wai (Keith) CHAN
Email: kinwaichan@cuhk.edu.hk
Office: LSB 115
Tel: 3943 7923
Office hour: Open-door policy
Teaching Assistants
Office: LSB G32
Tel: 3943 8535
Email: 1155125610@link.cuhk.edu.hk
Office: LSB 130
Tel: 3943 7939
Description
This course introduces the basic Bayesian inference procedures and philosophy, emphasizing both conceptual foundations and implementation. It covers conjugate families of distributions, Bayesian credible region, Jeffery’s prior, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Bayes factor, Bayesian information criterion, imputation, Bayesian linear-regression models, model averaging, hierarchical models and empirical Bayes models. Hands-on implementation of estimation and inference procedures in R will be demonstrated in interactive sections.
Prerequisites
No prerequisite course, but probability, statistics, and programming knowledge at the level of Stat 2001, 2005, and 2006 is highly recommended.
Textbooks
A self-contained lecture note is the main source of reference. Complementary textbooks include
(Major) Hoff, P.D. (2009). A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods. Springer. (Free online access via CUHK library)
(Minor) Wasserman, L. (2004). All of Statistics: A Concise Course in Statistical Inference. Springer.
(Minor) Albert, J. (2007). Bayesian Computation with R. Springer.
Learning outcomes
Upon finishing the course, students are expected to
distinguish the difference between frequentist and Bayesian methods, and identify their pros and cons;
derive posterior distribution from commonly-used prior and sampling distributions;
perform Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in R;
build simple Bayesian models for solving real problems; and
select appropriate Bayesian tools for different statistical tasks, e.g., estimation, testing, model selection, prediction, etc.
Assessment and Grading
There are three main assessment components, plus a bonus component.
a (out of 100) is the average score of approximately eight assignments with the lowest two scores dropped;
m (out of 100) is the score of mid-term exam;
f (out of 100) is the score of final exam; and
b (out of 2) is the bonus points, which will be given to students who actively participate in class.
The total score t (out of 100) is given by
t = min{100, 0.3a + 0.2max(m,f ) + 0.5f + b}
If min(t, f ) < 30, the final letter grade will be handled on a case-by-case basis. Otherwise, your letter grade will be in the A range if t ≥ 85, at least in the B range if t ≥ 65, at least in the C range if t ≥ 55.
Important note: For the most updated information, please always refer to the course outline announced by the course instructor in Blackboard, which shall prevail the above information if there is any discrepancy.
Lecture Notes
All rights reserved by the authors. Re-distribution by any means is strictly prohibited
Front matters
Click (S4010/lecture) to download all lecture notes and codes (or click the individual links below). The lecture notes may be updated from time to time.
Part 1: Basics of Bayesian Inference
Part 2: Theory and Computation
Part 3: Applications
Appendixes (Optional)
Appendix A: Basic Mathematics (Optional) --- for students who want to review; read Appendix A in STAT3005.
Appendix B: Basic probability (Optional) --- for students who want to review; read Appendix B in STAT3005.
Appendix C: Basic Statistics (Optional) --- for students who want to review; read Appendix C in STAT3005.
Appendix D: Basic programming in R (Optional) --- for students who want to review; read Lectures 2 and 3 in RMSC 1101.
Appendix E: Why Isn't Everyone a Bayesian? --- Efron (1986) (Optional)
Special topics that may be covered: Bayesian nonparametric, Fiducial inference, convergence diagnosis on MCMC, ...
In-class Materials
Click (S4010/2025Spring/L) to download all in-class notes and recordings (if any).
Lecture 1 (9 Jan): Introduction of Bayesian philosophy, posterior calculation
Lecture 2 (16 Jan): Example of posterior calculation, why flat prior fails, noninformative prior
Remark: In-class notes and recordings (if any) will be uploaded within one week after the lecture.
Assignments
Click (S4010/2025Spring/A) to download all assignments.
Assignment 1: Concept of Bayesian model, posterior calculation, simple coding exercises --- Due: 4 Feb (Tue) @ 1800
Are you a Bayesian or a frequentist?
Cumulative over the years (conducted in the first class): --------->
* Frequentist: 33/81 = 41%
* Bayesian: 48/81 = 59%Based on our class this year:
* Frequentist: 18/38 = 47%
* Bayesian: 20/38 = 53%
Mid-term Exam
Date: 14 March
Start Time: 6:30 pm
Duration: ~2 hours
Location: LSB G25-G27, Pi Chiu 102-103
Scope: TBA
Final Exam
Date: 2 May
Start Time: 9:30 am
Duration: ~3 hours
Location: LSB G25-G27, Pi Chiu 102-103
Scope: TBA