Working Papers:

Production and Financial Networks in Interplay (2025) (with G. Jiménez, E. Moral-Benito, J-L. Peydró, F. Vega-Redondo)[revise & resubmit]
Abstract:  We show that bank credit shocks to firms propagate upstream and downstream along the production network, with stronger effects for upstream than for downstream propagation. Our identification strategy relies on: (i) administrative datasets from Spain on the universe of both supplier-customer transactions and bank loans; (ii) standard bank credit supply shocks during the Global Financial Crisis; and (iii) a general equilibrium model of an interfirm production network economy with financial frictions, which we estimate structurally. We find that the impact of bank credit shocks to firms on aggregate GDP growth increases by close to 50% due to network propagation. Moreover, the combined bank shocks to customers and suppliers far on the production network are as important as the bank shocks hitting direct customers and suppliers.

Learning to Import through Production Networks (2025) (with F. Nutarelli,  F. Serti, and F. Vega-Redondo)
Abstract:  Using administrative data on the universe of inter-firm transactions in Spain, we show that firms learn to import from their domestic suppliers and customers. Our identification strategy exploits the panel structure of the data, the firm-time variation across import origins, and the network structure. We find evidence of both upstream and downstream network effects, even after accounting for sectoral and spatial spillovers. We estimate that an increase of 10 percentage points in the share of suppliers (customers) that are importing from a given region increases the probability of starting to import from that region by 10.7 % (19.2 %).  Connections with geographically distant domestic firms provide more useful information to start importing.  Larger firms are more responsive to this information but less likely to disseminate it.

Promotion through Connections: Favors or Information? (2024)(with Yann Bramoullé) [revise & resubmit]
Abstract: Connections appear to be helpful in many contexts, such as obtaining a job, a promotion, a grant, a loan, or publishing a paper. This may be due either to favoritism or to information conveyed by connections. Attempts at identifying both effects have relied on measures of true quality, generally built from data collected long after promotion. Building on earlier work on discrimination, we propose a new method to identify favors and information from data collected at the time of promotion. Under weak assumptions, we show that promotion decisions for connected candidates look more random to the econometrician due to the information channel. We derive new identification results and estimate the strength of the two effects. We adapt the control function approach to address the issue of the selection into connections. Applying our methodology to academic promotions in Spain and Italy and political advancements in China, we find evidence that connections may convey information and attract favors.

Published and accepted papers:

Measuring the Input Rank in Global Supply Networks (2023)  (with  L. Fattorini and A. Rungi) The World Economy, Forthcoming

Polarization in Networks: Identification-alienation Framework (2022), with  A. Ozkes,  Journal of Mathematical Economics.

A Noncooperative Model of Contest Network Formation (2021),   Journal of Public Economic Theory.

Contagious Disruptions and Complexity Traps in Economic Development (2017),  with Charlie Brummitt, Paolo Pin, Matthew H. Bonds, and Fernando Vega-Redondo, Nature Human Behavior.  Press coverage:  New Scientist, MIT Technology Review.

Older working papers:

Production Networks (with Fernando Vega-Redondo) (2016) 

In progress:

A screening role of enforcement institutions
Active peer pressure