Embedded Files
I explore how scenarios can anticipate biodiversity responses to global change, support decision-making, and guide conservation or agroecological transitions. This page gathers my projects on biodiversity–climate–land use scenarios, policy assessments (e.g. CAP), and participatory foresight, highlighting tools that bridge science and governance.
Why Scenarios matter?
Understanding how biodiversity and socio-ecological systems respond to global change requires not only retrospective analyses but also forward-looking approaches. Scenarios are powerful tools to explore possible futures, assess the impacts of land-use, agricultural, and climate trajectories, and guide proactive decisions.
My research integrates scenario-based approaches to anticipate biodiversity responses, investigate trade-offs and synergies across environmental, social, and economic dimensions, and support the development of policies aligned with sustainability goals.
This work ranges from modelling the impacts of climate and agricultural scenarios on bird communities at national and regional scales (as in my PhD and subsequent publications) to participating in multi-actor foresight initiatives such as Afterres2050 (Solagro), Transition(s)2050 (ADEME), and the FRB’s Scénario#2 program. I also collaborate on emerging projects (with Oxford / Hestia, IIASA, Solagro) that link local farm-level practices to broader food system transitions under climate change.
By combining ecological modelling, scenario analysis, participatory workshops, and policy evaluation, my aim is to produce actionable knowledge that helps reconcile biodiversity conservation with food system transformation and climate adaptation.
Scenarios as a tool for prediction and decision-making
Scenarios help model changes in coupled human–nature systems and anticipate how biodiversity linked to human activities might evolve. They are crucial for evaluating development strategies and informing policy, since the future of biodiversity largely depends on decisions made today.
Because these decisions involve compromises among diverse stakeholders, scenarios—both quantitative and qualitative—play a key role in assessing the impacts of policies and management practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as the consequences of biodiversity governance on socio-economic systems. They also provide a solid basis for dialogue between science, society, and politics, supporting proactive decision-making.
My research has equipped me with a broad set of skills to use and develop scenarios that predict biodiversity responses to environmental change. This work has contributed to management recommendations (e.g. conservation programs for lesser kestrel and black vulture populations) and informed policy assessments (such as the Common Agricultural Policy). I intend to continue advancing this scenario-based approach to better anticipate biodiversity changes and support evidence-based policy.
Figure 1. Flowchart summarizing the different steps of the methods developed to predict changes in French bird communities under agriculture and climate change scenarios (Princé et al. 2013, 2015). This figure shows how the different environmental drivers, and associated projections, were integrated in the forecasting framework.
Beyond academic outputs
Beyond classical academic research, I seek to engage more directly with society and governance processes. This has led me to build strong collaborations with national and international institutions to co-develop indicators, evaluate policy effectiveness, and create tools that inform strategic planning. Learn more on my Expertise page.
Relevant publications
Relevant publications
Princé, K., R. Lorrillière, M. Barbet-Massin, F. Léger, and F. Jiguet. 2015. Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts. PLOS ONE. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117850 PDF
Mihoub, J.B., K. Princé, O. Duriez, P. Lecuyer, B. Eliotout, and F. Sarrazin. 2014. Comparing release method effects on post-release survival of the European black vulture (Aegypius monachus) reintroduced in France. Oryx 48, 106-115. PDF
Chiron, F., K. Princé, M.L. Paracchini, and F. Jiguet. 2013. Forecasting potential impacts of CAP associated land-use changes on farmland birds at the country level. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 176, 17-23. PDF
Princé, K., R. Lorrillière, M. Barbet-Massin, and F. Jiguet. 2013. Predicting the fate of French bird communities under agriculture and climate changes scenarios. Environmental Science and Policy 33, 120-132. PDF
Google Sites
Report abuse