Biodiversity Scenarios

Scenarios as a tool for prediction and decision-making

The development of scenarios to model changes in the human-nature coupled systems, and in biodiversity related to human societies and activities, can play a major role in assessing various development strategies and guiding political decision-making. This is especially true since the future of biodiversity depends heavily on decisions made today, and therefore on the ability of our societies to anticipate the consequences of these decisions on time scales ranging from years to decades. These decisions rely on compromises between actors with different point of views, which assume to assess reciprocal concessions that these decisions will involve in the future. The scenarios, quantitative and qualitative, can therefore play a key role in assessing the impacts of public policies and decisions / management practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services and the impacts of biodiversity governance mechanisms on socio-economic activities. They can also provide a solid basis for dialogue between stakeholders - science / society / politics - and for proactive decision-making.

My research allowed me to gain a panel of key skills for the use and analysis of existing scenarios and the development of new scenarios to predict the responses of biodiversity to environmental changes. This work has led to more management recommendations (conservation programs in populations of lesser kestrel and black vultures), or has served as public-policy assessment tools (e.g. Common Agricultural Policy). Through my research project, I therefore intend to develop this scenario-based approach to forecast biodiversity responses to environmental changes, with the aim that my work can serve as support tools for decision management and / or bring items to help information to the decision in public policy.

Figure 1. Flowchart summarizing the different steps of the methods developed to predict changes in French bird communities under agriculture and climate change scenarios (Princé et al. 2013, 2015). This figure shows how the different environmental drivers, and associated projections, were integrated in the forecasting framework.

Relevant publications

Princé, K., R. Lorrillière, M. Barbet-Massin, F. Léger, and F. Jiguet. 2015. Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts. PLOS ONE. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117850 PDF

Mihoub, J.B., K. Princé, O. Duriez, P. Lecuyer, B. Eliotout, and F. Sarrazin. 2014. Comparing release method effects on post-release survival of the European black vulture (Aegypius monachus) reintroduced in France. Oryx 48, 106-115. PDF

Chiron, F., K. Princé, M.L. Paracchini, and F. Jiguet. 2013. Forecasting potential impacts of CAP associated land-use changes on farmland birds at the country level. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 176, 17-23. PDF

Princé, K., R. Lorrillière, M. Barbet-Massin, and F. Jiguet. 2013. Predicting the fate of French bird communities under agriculture and climate changes scenarios. Environmental Science and Policy 33, 120-132. PDF