Research
Publications
"Usury Enforcement as an Alternative to Capital Taxation in Pre-Modern States", Public Choice, Forthcoming.
"The Case for Nominal GDP Level Targeting", Southern Economic Journal, Forthcoming.
(2022) "Evolution, Uncertainty, and the Asymptotic Efficiency of Policy" (with Brian Albrecht and Alexander Salter), Public Choice, Vol. 192, No. 1-2, p. 169 - 188. (Working Paper Version)
(2022) "Cash, Crime, and Cryptocurrencies" (with William Luther), Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 85, p. 200 - 207.
(2022) "Commodity Money, Free Banking, and Nominal Income Targeting: Lessons for Monetary Policy Reform", Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 84, p. 462 - 477. (Working Paper Version)
(2022) "Competitively-Issued Convertible Bank Notes in a Theory of Finance: Earl Thompson Meets Fischer Black", B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, Volume 22, No. 1. (Working Paper Version)
(2022) "An Empirical Evaluation of the Physician Offsetting Response" (with Christopher S. Brunt), Applied Economics Letter, Volume 22, No. 4, p. 316 - 324. (Working Paper Version)
(2021) "The Case Against Eliminating Large Denomination Bills" (with Jaevin Park), Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 61 (A previous version was called "Breaking the Curse of Cash") (Working Paper Version)
(2021) "Geographic Variation in Part B Reimbursement and Physician Offsetting Behavior: A Physician Matching Approach" (with Christopher S. Brunt), International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Vol. 21, No. 2, p. 115 - 188. (Working Paper Version)
(2020) "The Riksbank, Emergency Finance, Policy Experimentation, and Sweden's Reversal of Fortune", Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 171, p. 312 - 332. (Working Paper Version)
(2020) "Options to the Realm: A Cost Neutral Proposal to Improve Political Incentives" (with Alexander Salter), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 38, No. 3, p. 515 - 529. (Working Paper Version)
(2020) "Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field" (with David Beckworth), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 52, No. 1, p. 269 - 286. (Working Paper Version)
(2020) "Primary Care Competition and Quality of Care: Empirical Evidence from Medicare's Physician Quality Reporting System" (with Christopher S. Brunt and John Bowblis), Health Economics, Vol. 29, No. 9, p. 1048 - 1061. (Working Paper Version)
(2019) "There is No Such Thing as the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, Vol. 39 No. 3, p. 1870 - 1875.
(2018) "Preventing Plunder: Military Technology, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth" (with Alexander Salter and Brian Albrecht), Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 58, p. 154 - 173. (Working Paper Version)
(2018) "The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 50, No. 1, p. 203 - 241.
(2018) "Going Beyond Monetary Constitutions: The Congruence of Money and Finance" (with Alexander Salter), Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 69, p. 22 - 28. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "If I Leave Here Tomorrow: An Option View of Migration When Labor Market Quality Declines" (with John Gardner), Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 84, No. 3, p. 786 - 814.
(2017) "Interest on Reserves, Settlement, and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy", Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 54, Part B, p. 206 - 216. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "Interest Rates and Investment Coordination Failures", Review of Austrian Economics, Vol. 30, p. 493 - 515. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "Banning Bitcoin" (with William Luther), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 141, p. 188 - 195. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "Staying When the Going Gets Tough: The Equivalent Predictions of Option and Search Theory on Migration During Economic Downturns" (with John Gardner), Economics Bulletin, Vol. 37, No. 3, p. 2102 - 2110. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "An Evaluation of Friedman's Monetary Instability Hypothesis", Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 83, No. 3, p. 744 - 55. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "Turning Pink Slips Into Red Tape: The Unintended Effects of Employment Protection Legislation" (with Harlan Holt), Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol., 35, No. 3, p. 421 - 438. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "Jurg Niehans and the Cashless Economy", The American Economist, Vol. 62, No. 2, p. 149 - 164. (Working Paper Version)
(2017) "What Cosmo Kramer Can Teach Us About Optimal Stopping Times", Journal of Economics and Finance Education, Vol. 16, No. 1, p. 33-39. (Working paper)
(2016) "Money, Liquidity, and the Structure of Production" (with Alexander Salter), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 73, p. 314 - 328. (Working Paper Version)
(2016) "A Theory of Why the Ruthless Revolt" (with Alexander Salter), Economics & Politics, Vol. 28, No. 3, p. 295 - 316. (Working Paper Version)
(2016) "The Political Economy of Bitcoin" (with Thomas Hogan and William Luther), Economic Inquiry, Vol. 54, No. 2, p. 925 - 939. (Download)
(2016) "Should the Government Increase Investment in Infrastructure Improvements When Interest Rates Decline?", Economics Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 3, p. 1687 - 1692.
(2015) "Monetary Equilibrium", Review of Austrian Economics, Vol. 28, No. 1, 53 - 73. (Working Paper Version)
(2014) "Redundancy or Mismeasurement? A Reappraisal of Money", Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 18, p. 1437 - 1465. (Download)
(2014) "Contingent Liability, Capital Requirements, and Financial Reform", Cato Journal, Vol. 34, No. 1. p. 129 - 144.
(2012) "Great Spending Crashes" (with David Beckworth), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, September.
(2012) "An Overhaul of Federal Reserve Doctrine: Nominal Income and the Great Moderation", Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 34, p. 304 - 317 (Working Paper Version)
Book Chapters
(2022) "The Value of Bitcoin in the Year 2141 (and Beyond!)" (with William Luther), The Economics of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies, James Caton (ed.), Edward Elgar.
(2022) "William McKinley, Optimal Reneging, and the Spanish-American War", in Patrick Gray, Joshua C. Hall, Ruth Herndon, and Javier Silvestre (eds.), Standard of Living - Essays on Economics, History, and Religion in Honor of John E. Murray. Springer.
(2022) "John Murray: A Teacher, A Mentor, and a Friend," in Patrick Gray, Joshua C. Hall, Ruth Herndon, and Javier Silvestre (eds.), Standard of Living - Essays on Economics, History, and Religion in Honor of John E. Murray. Springer.
(2021) "Price Specie Flow Mechanism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments" (with Kwabena Boateng), in Peter C. Earle and William J. Luther, The Gold Standard: Retrospect and Prospect.
(2019) "Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate: Reflections on Allan Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics", in David M. Beckworth (ed.), Reflections on Allan H. Meltzer’s Contributions to Monetary Economics and Public Policy. Stanford: Hoover Institution.
(2018) "Bullionism", in Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, Stefano Battilossi, Youssef Cassis, and Kazuhiko Yago (eds.), Springer Publishing.
(2012) "Nominal Income Targeting and Monetary Stability", in David M. Beckworth (ed.), Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. Independent Institute, 2012
Policy Stuff
(2023) "Is the Quantity Theory Dead? Lessons from the Pandemic", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, January 2023
(2022) "What Would Milton Friedman Says About Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination?" Mercatus Center Policy Brief, May 2022
(2022) "Central Banks Are Inflation Creators, Not Inflation Fighters", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, February 2022
(2021) "What Happens When Governments Pay for Spending with Money Creation? Lessons from the Early Riksbank", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, October 2021
(2021) "An Economic Analysis of the Elimination of the Individual Income Tax in Mississippi" (with Ron Mau)
Media coverage: Daily Journal, Mississippi Today
Cited by the Mississippi Speaker of the House.
(2020) "The Coronavirus and Lessons for Preparedness ", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, March 2020
(2019) "How Should the Central Bank Determine Its Target for Nominal Income Growth? Lessons from Free Banking and Friedman", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, June 2019
(2018) "Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee", Mercatus Center Policy Brief, July 2018.
Book Reviews
Review of The Money Illusion by Scott Sumner, Independent Review, Vol. 29, No. 2.
Review of The Skyscraper Curse – and How Austrian Economists Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century by Mark Thornton. Independent Review, Vol. 24, No. 3.
Review of The Midas Paradox: Financial Markets, Government Policy Shocks, and the Great Depression by Scott Sumner, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 77, No. 2, p. 615 - 616.
Review of The Great Recession: Market Failure or Policy Failure? by Robert Hetzel, Review of Austrian Economics, Vol. 30, No. 2, p. 251 - 254.
Review of Deliberating American Monetary Policy by Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, Journal of Economic History, Vol. 75, No. 1, p. 283 - 285.
Working Papers
"As Good As Gold? A Framework for Analyzing Redeemable Currencies" (with Bryan Cutsinger)
"If It Were a Snake, It Would Have Bitten You: Money in the New Keynesian Model" (with Ron Mau)
"If a Bitcoin Miner is Turned Off in China, Does It Make a Sound?" (with William Luther)
"How Did the Gold Standard Really Work? A Comparison of the Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments" (with Kwabena Boateng) (Data)
"Monetary Search, Proportional Transaction Costs, and the Currency Equivalent Index"
"Transaction Asset Shortages" (with David Beckworth)
"The Supply of Transaction Assets, Nominal Income, and Monetary Policy Transmission" (with David Beckworth)
"How Much Are Guaranteed Contracts Worth? Evidence from Major League Baseball"
Work in Progress
"In Our Defense: Taxation, Public Finance, and National Defense"
Fun Stuff
"Insiders, Outsiders, and Market Manipulation: GameStop as an Out-of-Sample Prediction" - Earl Thompson and Charlie Hickson developed a theory of asset price bubbles based on market manipulation and insider-outsider dynamics. They used this model to explain historical bubbles, such as the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Bubble. They also used their model to predict the housing bubble in the United States in real-time. In this paper, I summarize their argument and analyze the behavior of the stock price of GameStop in early 2021 to see how their theory predicts out-of-sample. In general, I find that their theory is broadly consistent with empirical observation. In doing so, this raises questions about market manipulation and the standard "David versus Goliath" narrative that emerged in the midst and in the aftermath of the bubble.
"An Interest Group Theory of University Efficiency" - Chronically under-funded niche products at a university are the Pareto efficient outcome of an interest group selection process.
"On the Absence of September Surprises" - Why do so many stories break in the month before an election? From the perspective of a political campaign, the motivation seems clear: the campaign wants to do damage to their opponent at a stage when their opponent has little time to response or counter-punch. But what about reporters? Would a reporter ever hold a story until October? The knee-jerk answer would seem to be 'no.' If you have a good story, you would want to run with it before anyone else does. However, in this paper I develop a model in which the reporter has to balance a trade-off. On the one hand, the reporter wants to print the story as soon as possible to gain the first-mover advantage. On the other hand, news shocks unrelated to the reporter's story will occur in the run-up to the election. These could be positive or negative shocks from the reporter's perspective. A series of positive news shocks (i.e. news that increases the value of the story) would make the story more valuable later. I show that a reporter facing this trade-off will likely wait some period of time before publishing the story. In fact, using some numerical simulations, I demonstrate a scenario in which a reporter who has a story on July 1st only publishes the story before October with probability 0.45. (This one is so fun, that I'm developing it into a bigger project with Brian Albrecht)
A discussion of this result can be found on the Washington Post's Wonkblog.
"A Real Option View of the Nickel Coke" - For 73 years, the price of a 6.5 oz. Coca-Cola (mmm, Coca-Cola) was a nickel. Why did this price last so long? What can the literature on investment decisions teach us about the nickel Coke? I argue that the option theory of investment can help us to understand why the price of Coke remained a nickel for so long.
"Labor Market Middlemen and the Minimum Wage as Collective Bargaining" - Why do minimum wages exist? Despite a vast literature on the effects of the minimum wage on employment, relatively little has been written on why minimum wages exist. In this paper, I attempt an explanation that focuses on the role of wage bargaining, middlemen, and transaction costs.
Other Writing
A Review of Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century (a revised version for a general audience appears in National Review)
Awards
New Scholar Award, College of Liberal Arts, University of Mississippi
Recent Presentations
"The Treasury Standard: Causes and Consequences," George Mason University, May 2024
"The Role of Bitcoin in the Dollar-Based System," Bitcoin Policy Summit, April 2024
“The Treasury Standard: Causes and Consequences,” Public Choice Society Meetings, March 2024
“The Future of the Dollar”, Saint Vincent College, Public Lecture, February 2024
“If It Were a Snake, It Would Have Bitten You: Money in the New Keynesian Model”, Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting, November 2023
If It Were a Snake, It Would Have Bitten You: Money in the New Keynesian Model”, Mercatus Center Conference in Honor of Bennett McCallum, October 2023
“Scam? Bank Run? Fraud?", Invited public lecture, Angelo State University, May 2023
“Taxation and National Defense, Revisited”, Public Choice Society Annual Meeting, March 2022
"In Our Defense: National Defense and Taxation, Revisited", Middle Tennessee State, April 2021
"Usury Enforcement as an Alternative to Capital Taxation in Pre-Modern States", Washington-Area Economic History Brown Bag, Fall 2020
"U.S. Maritime Policy and Economic Efficiency", Public Choice Society, March 2020 (Cancelled due to the pandemic) .
"U.S. Maritime Policy and Economic Efficiency", Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting, November 2019.
"The Riksbank, Emergency Finance, Policy Experimentation, and Sweden's Reversal of Fortune", AIER Sound Money Project Annual Meeting, July 2018.
"The Riksbank, Emergency Finance, Policy Experimentation, and Sweden's Reversal of Fortune", Texas Tech University, March 2018
"Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate: Reflections on Allan Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics", Reflections on Allan Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics and Public Policy, Philadelphia, January 2018
"Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field", Wayne State University, April 2017
"Is Forward Guidance Effective? Indirect Evidence from the Speeches of Fed Presidents", Southern Economic Association Meetings, November 2016
"Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field", Southern Economic Association Meetings, November 2016
"Interest Rates and Investment Coordination Failures", APEE Conference, April 2016
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Is the Interest Rate Enough?", APEE Conference, April 2016
"An Evaluation of Friedman's Monetary Instability Hypothesis", APEE Conference, April 2016
"Interest Rates and Investment Coordination Failures", Georgia Southern University, December 2015
"Money, Liquidity, and the Structure of Production", Southern Economic Association Meetings, November 2015
"Interest Rates, Policy Uncertainty, and Investment", Mississippi State University, September 2015
"Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field", Should Central Banks Target Nominal GDP? Conference, West Virginia University, April 2015
"Money, Liquidity, and the Structure of Production", UC-Irvine, April 2015
"The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence", Rhodes College, February 2015
"The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence", George Mason University, February 2015
"An Examination of Friedman's Monetary Instability Hypothesis", Society for Economic Measurement Conference, University of Chicago, August 2014